Tractable nonparametric bayesian inference in poisson processes with Gaussian process intensities

The inhomogeneous Poisson process is a point process that has varying intensity across its domain (usually time or space). For nonparametric Bayesian modeling, the Gaussian process is a useful way to place a prior distribution on this intensity. The combination of a Poisson process and GP is known as a Gaussian Cox process, or doubly-stochastic Poisson process. Likelihood-based inference in these models requires an intractable integral over an infinite-dimensional random function. In this paper we present the first approach to Gaussian Cox processes in which it is possible to perform inference without introducing approximations or finitedimensional proxy distributions. We call our method the Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process, which uses a generative model for Poisson data to enable tractable inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We compare our methods to competing methods on synthetic data and apply it to several real-world data sets. Copyright 2009.

Tractable nonparametric Bayesian inference in Poisson processes with Gaussian process intensities

The inhomogeneous Poisson process is a point process that has varying intensity across its domain (usually time or space). For nonparametric Bayesian modeling, the Gaussian process is a useful way to place a prior distribution on this intensity. The combination of a Poisson process and GP is known as a Gaussian Cox process, or doubly-stochastic Poisson process. Likelihood-based inference in these models requires an intractable integral over an infinite-dimensional random function. In this paper we present the first approach to Gaussian Cox processes in which it is possible to perform inference without introducing approximations or finite-dimensional proxy distributions. We call our method the Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process, which uses a generative model for Poisson data to enable tractable inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We compare our methods to competing methods on synthetic data and apply it to several real-world data sets.

Gaussian Process Regression Networks

We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates input dependent signal and noise correlations between multiple response variables, input dependent length-scales and amplitudes, and heavy-tailed predictive distributions. We derive both efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes inference procedures for this model. We apply GPRN as a multiple output regression and multivariate volatility model, demonstrating substantially improved performance over eight popular multiple output (multi-task) Gaussian process models and three multivariate volatility models on benchmark datasets, including a 1000 dimensional gene expression dataset.

The Gaussian process density sampler

We present the Gaussian Process Density Sampler (GPDS), an exchangeable generative model for use in nonparametric Bayesian density estimation. Samples drawn from the GPDS are consistent with exact, independent samples from a fixed density function that is a transformation of a function drawn from a Gaussian process prior. Our formulation allows us to infer an unknown density from data using Markov chain Monte Carlo, which gives samples from the posterior distribution over density functions and from the predictive distribution on data space. We can also infer the hyperparameters of the Gaussian process. We compare this density modeling technique to several existing techniques on a toy problem and a skullreconstruction task.

Additive Gaussian processes

We introduce a Gaussian process model of functions which are additive. An additive function is one which decomposes into a sum of low-dimensional functions, each depending on only a subset of the input variables. Additive GPs generalize both Generalized Additive Models, and the standard GP models which use squared-exponential kernels. Hyperparameter learning in this model can be seen as Bayesian Hierarchical Kernel Learning (HKL). We introduce an expressive but tractable parameterization of the kernel function, which allows efficient evaluation of all input interaction terms, whose number is exponential in the input dimension. The additional structure discoverable by this model results in increased interpretability, as well as state-of-the-art predictive power in regression tasks.

The foundations of a new approach to additive manufacturing: Characteristics of free space metal deposition

In this paper, we report on the realisation of a free space deposition process (FSD). For the first time the use of a moving support structure to deposit tracks of metal starting from a substrate and extending into free space is characterised. The ability to write metal shapes in free space has wide ranging applications in additive manufacturing and rapid prototyping where the tracks can be layered to build overhanging features without the use of fixed support structures (such as is used in selective laser melting (SLM) and stereo lithography (SLA)). We demonstrate and perform a preliminary characterisation of the process in which a soldering iron was used to deposit lead free solder tracks. The factors affecting the stability of tracks and the effect of operating parameters, temperature, velocity, initial track starting diameter and starting volume were measured. A series of 10 tracks at each setting were compared with a control group of tracks; the track width, taper and variation between tracks were compared. Notable results in free space track deposition were that the initial track diameter and volume affected the repeatability and quality of tracks. The standard deviation of mean track width of tracks from the constrained initial diameter group were half that of the unconstrained group. The amount of material fed to the soldering iron before commencing deposition affected the taper of tracks. At an initial volume of 7 mm3 and an initial track diameter of 0.8 mm, none of the ten tracks deposited broke or showed taper > ∼1°. The maximum deposition velocity for free space track deposition using lead-free solder was limited to 1.5 mm s-1. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A dependent partition-valued process for multitask clustering and time evolving network modelling

The fundamental aim of clustering algorithms is to partition data points. We consider tasks where the discovered partition is allowed to vary with some covariate such as space or time. One approach would be to use fragmentation-coagulation processes, but these, being Markov processes, are restricted to linear or tree structured covariate spaces. We define a partition-valued process on an arbitrary covariate space using Gaussian processes. We use the process to construct a multitask clustering model which partitions datapoints in a similar way across multiple data sources, and a time series model of network data which allows cluster assignments to vary over time. We describe sampling algorithms for inference and apply our method to defining cancer subtypes based on different types of cellular characteristics, finding regulatory modules from gene expression data from multiple human populations, and discovering time varying community structure in a social network.

Bayesian inference and learning in Gaussian process state-space models with Particle MCMC

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference and learning (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gaussian process prior over the state transition dynamics, resulting in a flexible model able to capture complex dynamical phenomena. To enable efficient inference, we marginalize over the transition dynamics function and, instead, infer directly the joint smoothing distribution using specially tailored Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers. Once a sample from the smoothing distribution is computed, the state transition predictive distribution can be formulated analytically. Our approach preserves the full nonparametric expressivity of the model and can make use of sparse Gaussian processes to greatly reduce computational complexity.