Value roadmapping: A structured approach for early stage technology investment decisions

Deciding to invest in early stage technologies is one of the most important tasks of technology management and arguably also the most uncertain. It assumes a particular significance in the rise of technology companies in emerging economies, which have to make appropriate investment decisions. Technology managers already have a wide range of methods and tools at their disposal, but these are mostly focussed on quantitative measures such as discounted cash flow and real options techniques. However, in the early stages of technology development there seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with these techniques as there appears to be a lack of accuracy with respect to the underlying assumptions that these models require. In order to complement these models this paper will discuss an alternative approach that we call value road-mapping. By adapting roadmapping techniques the potential value streams of early stages technologies can be plotted and hence a clearer consensus based picture of the future potential of new technologies emerges. Roadmapping is a workshop-based process bringing together multifunctional perspectives, and supporting communication in particular between technical and commercial groups. The study is work in progress and is based on a growing number of cases. (c) 2006 PICMET.

Comparison of Image-Based and Time-of-Flight-Based Technologies for 3D Reconstruction of Infrastructure

Image-based (i.e., photo/videogrammetry) and time-of-flight-based (i.e., laser scanning) technologies are typically used to collect spatial data of infrastructure. In order to help architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industries make cost-effective decisions in selecting between these two technologies with respect to their settings, this paper makes an attempt to measure the accuracy, quality, time efficiency, and cost of applying image-based and time-of-flight-based technologies to conduct as-built 3D reconstruction of infrastructure. In this paper, a novel comparison method is proposed, and preliminary experiments are conducted. The results reveal that if the accuracy and quality level desired for a particular application is not high (i.e., error < 10 cm, and completeness rate > 80%), image-based technologies constitute a good alternative for time-of-flight-based technologies and significantly reduce the time and cost needed for collecting the data on site.

Shortening the decision distance: Selecting decision aids for improved technology investment performance

Deciding which technology to invest in is a recurring issue for technology managers, and the ability to successfully identify the right technology can be a make or break decision for a company. The effects of globalisation have made this issue even more imperative. Not only do companies have to be competitive by global standards but increasingly they have to source technological capabilities from overseas as well. Technology managers already have a variety of decision aids to draw upon, including valuation tools, for example DCF and real options; decision trees; and technology roadmapping. However little theory exists on when, where, why or even how to best apply particular decision aids. Rather than developing further techniques, this paper reviews the relevance and limitations of existing techniques. This is drawn from an on going research project which seeks to support technology managers in selecting and applying existing decision aids and potentially in the design of future decision aids. It is intended that through improving the selection of decision aids, decision performance can be increased, leading to more effective allocation of resources and hence competitive advantage. (c) 2006 PICMET.

Extracellular-matrix tethering regulates stem-cell fate.

To investigate how substrate properties influence stem-cell fate, we cultured single human epidermal stem cells on polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) and polyacrylamide (PAAm) hydrogel surfaces, 0.1 kPa-2.3 MPa in stiffness, with a covalently attached collagen coating. Cell spreading and differentiation were unaffected by polydimethylsiloxane stiffness. However, cells on polyacrylamide of low elastic modulus (0.5 kPa) could not form stable focal adhesions and differentiated as a result of decreased activation of the extracellular-signal-related kinase (ERK)/mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signalling pathway. The differentiation of human mesenchymal stem cells was also unaffected by PDMS stiffness but regulated by the elastic modulus of PAAm. Dextran penetration measurements indicated that polyacrylamide substrates of low elastic modulus were more porous than stiff substrates, suggesting that the collagen anchoring points would be further apart. We then changed collagen crosslink concentration and used hydrogel-nanoparticle substrates to vary anchoring distance at constant substrate stiffness. Lower collagen anchoring density resulted in increased differentiation. We conclude that stem cells exert a mechanical force on collagen fibres and gauge the feedback to make cell-fate decisions.

Comparison of Image-Based and Time-of-Flight-Based Technologies for Three-Dimensional Reconstruction of Infrastructure

Image-based (i.e., photo/videogrammetry) and time-of-flight-based (i.e., laser scanning) technologies are typically used to collect spatial data of infrastructure. In order to help architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industries make cost-effective decisions in selecting between these two technologies with respect to their settings, this paper makes an attempt to measure the accuracy, quality, time efficiency, and cost of applying image-based and time-of-flight-based technologies to conduct as-built 3D reconstruction of infrastructure. In this paper, a novel comparison method is proposed, and preliminary experiments are conducted. The results reveal that if the accuracy and quality level desired for a particular application is not high (i.e., error < 10 cm, and completeness rate > 80%), image-based technologies constitute a good alternative for time-of-flight-based technologies and significantly reduce the time and cost needed for collecting the data on site.

Prices need no preferences: social trends determine decisions in experimental markets for pain relief.

OBJECTIVE: A standard view in health economics is that, although there is no market that determines the "prices" for health states, people can nonetheless associate health states with monetary values (or other scales, such as quality adjusted life year [QALYs] and disability adjusted life year [DALYs]). Such valuations can be used to shape health policy, and a major research challenge is to elicit such values from people; creating experimental "markets" for health states is a theoretically attractive way to address this. We explore the possibility that this framework may be fundamentally flawed-because there may not be any stable values to be revealed. Instead, perhaps people construct ad hoc values, influenced by contextual factors, such as the observed decisions of others. METHOD: The participants bid to buy relief from equally painful electrical shocks to the leg and arm in an experimental health market based on an interactive second-price auction. Thirty subjects were randomly assigned to two experimental conditions where the bids by "others" were manipulated to follow increasing or decreasing price trends for one, but not the other, pain. After the auction, a preference test asked the participants to choose which pain they prefer to experience for a longer duration. RESULTS: Players remained indifferent between the two pain-types throughout the auction. However, their bids were differentially attracted toward what others bid for each pain, with overbidding during decreasing prices and underbidding during increasing prices. CONCLUSION: Health preferences are dissociated from market prices, which are strongly referenced to others' choices. This suggests that the price of health care in a free-market has the capacity to become critically detached from people's underlying preferences.

Choosing to make an effort: the role of striatum in signaling physical effort of a chosen action.

The possibility that we will have to invest effort influences our future choice behavior. Indeed deciding whether an action is actually worth taking is a key element in the expression of human apathy or inertia. There is a well developed literature on brain activity related to the anticipation of effort, but how effort affects actual choice is less well understood. Furthermore, prior work is largely restricted to mental as opposed to physical effort or has confounded temporal with effortful costs. Here we investigated choice behavior and brain activity, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, in a study where healthy participants are required to make decisions between effortful gripping, where the factors of force (high and low) and reward (high and low) were varied, and a choice of merely holding a grip device for minimal monetary reward. Behaviorally, we show that force level influences the likelihood of choosing an effortful grip. We observed greater activity in the putamen when participants opt to grip an option with low effort compared with when they opt to grip an option with high effort. The results suggest that, over and above a nonspecific role in movement anticipation and salience, the putamen plays a crucial role in computations for choice that involves effort costs.

Towards measuring the impact of information availability on maintenance decisions

Decisions concerning maintenance have become increasingly important and requires a diverse set of information as systems become more complex. The availability of information has an impact on the effectiveness of these decisions, and thus on the performance of the asset. This paper highlights the importance of quantifying the value of information on maintenance decisions and asset performance. In particular, we emphasise the need to focus on measuring value as opposed to cost of maintenance, which is the current practice. In this direction, we propose a measure - Value of Ownership (VOO) - to assess the value of information and performance of maintenance decisions throughout an assets lifecycle. © 2009 IFAC.