Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Gas properties as a limit to gas turbine performance

Although increasing the turbine inlet temperature has traditionally proved the surest way to increase cycle efficiency, recent work suggests that the performance of future gas turbines may be limited by increased cooling flows and losses. Another limiting scenario concerns the effect on cycle performance of real gas properties at high temperatures. Cycle calculations of uncooled gas turbines show that when gas properties are modelled accurately, the variation of cycle efficiency with turbine inlet temperature at constant pressure ratio exhibits a maximum at temperatures well below the stoichiometric limit. Furthermore, the temperature at the maximum decreases with increasing compressor and turbine polytropic efficiency. This behaviour is examined in the context of a two-component model of the working fluid. The dominant influences come from the change of composition of the combustion products with varying air/fuel ratio (particularly the contribution from the water vapour) together with the temperature variation of the specific heat capacity of air. There are implications for future industrial development programmes, particularly in the context of advanced mixed gas-steam cycles.

Improving discharge characteristics of indirect integral collector storage systems with multi-element storage

Desired performance of unpressurized integral collector storage systems hinges on the appropriate selection of storage volume and the immersed heat exchanger. This paper presents analytical results expressing the relation between storage volume, number of heat exchanger transfer units and temperature limited performance. For a system composed of a single storage element, the limiting behavior of a perfectly stratified storage element is shown to be superior to a fully-mixed storage element, consistent with more general analysis of thermal storage. Since, however, only the fully-mixed limit is readily obtainable in a physical system, the present paper also examines a division of the storage volume into separate compartments. This multi-element storage system shows significantly improved discharge characteristics as a result of improved elemental area utilization and temperature variation between elements, comparable in many cases to a single perfectly-stratified storage element. In addition, the multi-element system shows increased robustness with respect to variations in heat exchanger effectiveness and initial storage temperature.

The influence of repeated loading, residual stresses and shakedown on the behaviour of tribological contacts

Most tribological pairs carry their service load not just once but for a very large number of repeated cycles. During the early stages of this life, protective residual stresses may be developed in the near surface layers which enable loads which are of sufficient magnitude to cause initial plastic deformation to be accommodated purely elastically in the longer term. This is an example of the phenomenon of 'shakedown' and when its effects are incorporated into the design and operation schedule of machine components this process can lead to significant increases in specific loading duties or improvements in material utilization. Although the underlying principles can be demonstrated by reference to relatively simple stress systems, when a moving Hertzian pressure distribution in considered, which is the form of loading applicable to many contact problems, the situation is more complex. In the absence of exact solutions, bounding theorems, adopted from the theory of plasticity, can be used to generate appropriate load or shakedown limits so that shakedown maps can be drawn which delineate the boundaries between potentially safe and unsafe operating conditions. When the operating point of the contact lies outside the shakedown limit there will be an increment of plastic strain with each application of the load - these can accumulate leading eventually to either component failure or the loss of material by wear. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The performance of closed reactor grade plutonium-thorium fuel cycles in reduced-moderation pressurised water reactors

The production of long-lived transuranic (TRU) waste is a major disadvantage of fission-based nuclear power. Previous work has indicated that TRU waste can be virtually eliminated in a pressurised water reactor (PWR) fuelled with a mixture of thorium and TRU waste, when all actinides are returned to the reactor after reprocessing. However, the optimal configuration for a fuel assembly operating this fuel cycle is likely to differ from the current configuration. In this paper, the differences in performance obtained in a reduced-moderation PWR operating this fuel cycle were investigated using WIMS. The chosen configuration allowed an increase of at least 20% in attainable burn-up for a given TRU enrichment. This will be especially important if the practical limit on TRU enrichment is low. The moderator reactivity coefficients limit the enrichment possible in the reactor, and this limit is particularly severe if a negative void coefficient is required for a fully voided core. Several strategies have been identified to mitigate this. Specifically, the control system should be designed to avoid a detrimental effect on moderator reactivity coefficients. The economic viability of this concept is likely to be dependent on the achievable thermal-hydraulic operating conditions. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biofluid behaviour in 3D microchannel systems: Numerical analysis and design development of 3D microchannel biochip separators

This paper describes the design and development cycle of a 3D biochip separator and the modelling analysis of flow behaviour in the biochip microchannel features. The focus is on identifying the difference between 2D and 3D implementations as well as developing basic forms of 3D microfluidic separators. Five variants, based around the device are proposed and analysed. These include three variations of the branch channels (circular, rectangular, disc) and two variations of the main channel (solid and concentric). Ignoring the initial transient behaviour and assuming steady state flow has been established, the efficiencies of the flow between the main and side channels for the different designs are analysed and compared with regard to relevant biomicrofluidic laws or effects (bifurcation law, Fahraeus effect, cell-free phenomenon, bending channel effect and laminar flow behaviour). The modelling results identify flow features in microchannels, a constriction and bifurcations and show detailed differences in flow fields between the various designs. The manufacturing process using injection moulding for the initial base case design is also presented and discussed. The work reported here is supported as part of the UK funded 3D-MINTEGRATION project. © 2010 IEEE.

RFID Tag Location Systems

We describe a methods of locating an RFID tag. One method comprises: transmitting tag location signals from a plurality of different transmit antennas, wherein said antennas are spaced apart by more than a near field limit distance at a frequency of a said signal; receiving a corresponding plurality of receiving return signals from said tag; and processing said tag return signals to determine a range to said tag; wherein said transmitting comprises transmitting at a plurality of different frequencies; wherein said processing comprises determining a phase difference at said plurality of different frequencies to determine said range, and wherein said determining of said phase difference determines a phase difference between either i) two or more of said transmit signals resulting in a maxima in the returned signal RSSI or ii) a first transmit signal and its corresponding return signal; and wherein said determining of said range to said tag uses said return signals weighted responsive to a respective received signal strength of the return signal. Further data which may be used for averaging may be generated by using the above techniques along with changes in the polarisation state of the transmit and receive antennas and/or physical reconfiguration of the antennas (e.g. switch the transmit and receive elements).

Open cycle thorium–uranium-fuelled nuclear energy systems

The potential for countries that currently have a nominal nuclear energy infrastructure to adopt thorium–uranium-fuelled nuclear energy systems, using a once-through ‘open’ nuclear fuel cycle, has been suggested by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This review paper highlights generation II, III and III+ nuclear energy technologies that could potentially adopt an open thorium–uranium fuel cycle and qualitatively highlights the main differences between the open thorium–uranium and open uranium fuel cycles.

Simultaneous reduction of particulate matter and NOx emissions using 4-way catalyzed filtration systems

The next generation of diesel emission control devices includes 4-way catalyzed filtration systems (4WCFS) consisting of both NOx and diesel particulate matter (DPM) control. A methodology was developed to simultaneously evaluate the NOx and DPM control performance of miniature 4WCFS made from acicular mullite, an advanced ceramic material (ACM), that were challenged with diesel exhaust. The impact of catalyst loading and substrate porosity on catalytic performance of the NOx trap was evaluated. Simultaneously with NOx measurements, the real-time solid particle filtration performance of catalyst-coated standard and high porosity filters was determined for steady-state and regenerative conditions. The use of high porosity ACM 4-way catalyzed filtration systems reduced NOx by 99% and solid and total particulate matter by 95% when averaged over 10 regeneration cycles. A "regeneration cycle" refers to an oxidizing ("lean") exhaust condition followed by a reducing ("rich") exhaust condition resulting in NOx storage and NOx reduction (i.e., trap "regeneration"), respectively. Standard porosity ACM 4-way catalyzed filtration systems reduced NOx by 60-75% and exhibited 99.9% filtration efficiency. The rich/lean cycling used to regenerate the filter had almost no impact on solid particle filtration efficiency but impacted NOx control. Cycling resulted in the formation of very low concentrations of semivolatile nucleation mode particles for some 4WCFS formulations. Overall, 4WCFS show promise for significantly reducing diesel emissions into the atmosphere in a single control device. © 2013 American Chemical Society.

Trading the stability of finite zeros for global stabilization of nonlinear cascade systems

This note analyzes the stabilizability properties of nonlinear cascades in which a nonminimum phase linear system is interconnected through its output to a Stable nonlinear system. It is shown that the instability of the zeros of the linear System can be traded with the stability of the nonlinear system up to a limit fixed by the growth properties of the cascade interconnection term. Below this limit, global stabilization is achieved by smooth static-state feedback. Beyond this limit, various examples illustrate that controllability of the cascade may be lost, making it impossible to achieve large regions of attractions.

Trading the stability of finite zeros for global stabilization of nonlinear cascade systems

This paper analyzes the stabilizability properties of nonlinear cascades in which a nonminimum phase linear system is interconnected through its output to a stable nonlinear system. It is shown that the instability of the zeros of the linear system can be traded with the stability of the nonlinear system up to a limit fixed by the growth properties of the cascade interconnection term. Below this limit, global stabilization is achieved by smooth static state feedback. Beyond this limit, various examples illustrate that controllability of the cascade may be lost, making it impossible to achieve large regions of attractions.