Uncertainty management for on-line optimisation of a POMDP-based large-scale spoken dialogue system

The optimization of dialogue policies using reinforcement learning (RL) is now an accepted part of the state of the art in spoken dialogue systems (SDS). Yet, it is still the case that the commonly used training algorithms for SDS require a large number of dialogues and hence most systems still rely on artificial data generated by a user simulator. Optimization is therefore performed off-line before releasing the system to real users. Gaussian Processes (GP) for RL have recently been applied to dialogue systems. One advantage of GP is that they compute an explicit measure of uncertainty in the value function estimates computed during learning. In this paper, a class of novel learning strategies is described which use uncertainty to control exploration on-line. Comparisons between several exploration schemes show that significant improvements to learning speed can be obtained and that rapid and safe online optimisation is possible, even on a complex task. Copyright © 2011 ISCA.

Increasing the design strength of glass – fractography and stress testing

Brittleness is the unintended, but inevitable consequence of producing a transparent ceramic for architectural applications such as the soda-lime glass. Its tensile strength is particularly sensitive to surface imperfections, such as that from natural weathering and malicious damage. Although a significant amount of testing of new glass has been carried out, there has been surprisingly little testing on weathered glass. Due to the variable nature of the causes of surface damage, the lack of data on weathered glass leads to a considerable degree of uncertainty in the long-term strength of exposed glass. This paper presents the results of recent tests on weathered annealed glass which has been exposed to natural weathering for more than 20 years. The tests include experimental investigations using the co-axial ring setup as well as optical and atomic force microscopy of the glass surfaces. The experimental data from these tests is subsequently used to extend existing fracture mechanics-based models to predict the strength of weathered glass. It is shown that using an automated approach based directly on finite element analysis results can give an increase in effective design strength in the order of 70 to 100% when compared to maximum stress methods. It is also shown that by combining microscopy and strength test results, it is possible to quantitatively characterise the damage on glass surfaces.

Boundary effects on the vibration statistics of a random plate

This paper considers the estimation of statistics of displacement of a vibrating rectangular plate with random wave scatterers. The influence of uncertainty is investigated using point impedance theory. Coherent boundary effects are seen, which decrease when the number of scatterers increases. The boundary effect is investigated using images and the first side and corner reflections are found to be a minimum requirement to estimate the spatial correlation. Statistics for point driven response are investigated under the assumption that the statistics of the natural frequencies follow those of the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE). The estimates are compared with Monte Carlo simulation results, and they show good agreement. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The vibro-acoustic analysis of built-up systems using a hybrid method with parametric and non-parametric uncertainties

An existing hybrid finite element (FE)/statistical energy analysis (SEA) approach to the analysis of the mid- and high frequency vibrations of a complex built-up system is extended here to a wider class of uncertainty modeling. In the original approach, the constituent parts of the system are considered to be either deterministic, and modeled using FE, or highly random, and modeled using SEA. A non-parametric model of randomness is employed in the SEA components, based on diffuse wave theory and the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE), and this enables the mean and variance of second order quantities such as vibrational energy and response cross-spectra to be predicted. In the present work the assumption that the FE components are deterministic is relaxed by the introduction of a parametric model of uncertainty in these components. The parametric uncertainty may be modeled either probabilistically, or by using a non-probabilistic approach such as interval analysis, and it is shown how these descriptions can be combined with the non-parametric uncertainty in the SEA subsystems to yield an overall assessment of the performance of the system. The method is illustrated by application to an example built-up plate system which has random properties, and benchmark comparisons are made with full Monte Carlo simulations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.