Identification of damping: Part 4, error analysis

In previous papers (S. Adhikari and J. Woodhouse 2001 Journal of Sound and Vibration 243, 43-61; 63-88; S. Adhikari and J. Woodhouse 2002 Journal of Sound and Vibration 251, 477-490) methods were proposed to obtain the coefficient matrix for a viscous damping model or a non-viscous damping model with an exponential relaxation function, from measured complex natural frequencies and modes. In all these works, it has been assumed that exact complex natural frequencies and complex modes are known. In reality, this will not be the case. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the sensitivity of the identified damping matrices to measurement errors. By using numerical and analytical studies it is shown that the proposed methods can indeed be expected to give useful results from moderately noisy data provided a correct damping model is selected for fitting. Indications are also given of what level of noise in the measured modal properties is needed to mask the true physical behaviour.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.