Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: A study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution

Climate change is expected to have significant impact on the future thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation and sensitivity analysis can be employed to predict these impacts, guiding interventions to adapt buildings to future conditions. This article explores the use of simulation to study the impact of climate change on a theoretical office building in the UK, employing a probabilistic approach. The work studies (1) appropriate performance metrics and underlying modelling assumptions, (2) sensitivity of computational results to identify key design parameters and (3) the impact of zonal resolution. The conclusions highlight the importance of assumptions in the field of electricity conversion factors, proper management of internal heat gains, and the need to use an appropriately detailed zonal resolution. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Energy use of buildings at urban scale: A case study of london school buildings

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop building stock models. This research proposes an engineering-based bottom-up stock model in a probabilistic manner to address these issues. School buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. Two sampling-based global sensitivity methods are used to identify key factors affecting building energy performance. The sensitivity analysis methods can also create statistical regression models for inverse analysis, which are used to estimate input information for building stock energy models. The effects of different energy saving measures are analysed by changing these building stock input distributions.

Analysis of high pressure premixed flames using Equivalent Reactor Networks for predicting NOx emissions

This paper describes a computational study of lean premixed high pressure methane-air flames, using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) together with a reactor network approach. A detailed chemical reaction mechanism is employed to predict pollutant concentrations, placing emphasis on nitrogen oxide emissions. The reacting flow field is divided into separate zones in which homogeneity of the physical and chemical conditions prevails. The defined zones are interconnected forming an Equivalent Reactor Network (ERN). Three flames are examined for which experimental data is available. Flame A is characterised by an equivalence ratio of 0.43 while Flames B and C are richer with equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 0.56 respectively. Computations are performed for a range of operating conditions, quantifying the effect in the emitted NOx levels. Model predictions are compared against the available experimental data. Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of the network size, in order to define the optimum number of reactors for accurate predictions of the species mass fractions. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of interconnected oscillators by dissipativity theory

This paper employs dissipativity theory for the global analysis of limit cycles in particular dynamical systems of possibly high dimension. Oscillators are regarded as open systems that satisfy a particular dissipation inequality. It is shown that this characterization has implications for the global stability analysis of limit cycle oscillations: i) in isolated oscillators, ii) in interconnections of oscillators, and iii) for the global synchrony analysis in interconnections of identical oscillators. © 2007 IEEE.

Handling uncertainty in housing stock models

Housing stock models can be useful tools in helping to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of retrofits to residential buildings; however, existing housing stock models are not able to quantify the uncertainties that arise in the modelling process from various sources, thus limiting the role that they can play in helping decision makers. This paper examines the different sources of uncertainty involved in housing stock models and proposes a framework for handling these uncertainties. This framework involves integrating probabilistic sensitivity analysis with a Bayesian calibration process in order to quantify uncertain parameters more accurately. The proposed framework is tested on a case study building, and suggestions are made on how to expand the framework for retrofit analysis at an urban-scale. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Control theory and systems biology

Presenting a control-theoretic treatment of stoichiometric systems, ... local parametric sensitivity analysis, the two approaches yield identical results. ...

A computer algorithm for determining the tensile strength of float glass

The extrinsic tensile strength of glass can be determined explicitly if the characteristics of the critical surface flaw are known, or stochastically if the critical flaw characteristics are unknown. This paper makes contributions to both these approaches. Firstly it presents a unified model for determining the strength of glass explicitly, by accounting for both the inert strength limit and the sub-critical crack growth threshold. Secondly, it describes and illustrates the use of a numerical algorithm, based on the stochastic approach, that computes the characteristic tensile strength of float glass by piecewise summation of the surface stresses. The experimental validation and sensitivity analysis reported in this paper show that the proposed computer algorithm provides an accurate and efficient means of determining the characteristic strength of float glass. The algorithm is particularly useful for annealed and thermally treated float glass used in the construction industry. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Numerical study of soil heterogeneity effects on contaminant transport in unsaturated soil (model development and validation)

The movement of chemicals through soil to groundwater is a major cause of degradation of water resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. The study of the effects of different factors involved in transport phenomena can provide valuable information to find the best remediation approaches. Numerical models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing solute transport processes in soils and groundwater. This article presents the development of a stochastic finite element model for the simulation of contaminant transport through soils with the main focus being on the incorporation of the effects of soil heterogeneity in the model. The governing equations of contaminant transport are presented. The mathematical framework and the numerical implementation of the model are described. The comparison of the results obtained from the developed stochastic model with those obtained from a deterministic method and some experimental results shows that the stochastic model is capable of predicting the transport of solutes in unsaturated soil with higher accuracy than deterministic one. The importance of the consideration of the effects of soil heterogeneity on contaminant fate is highlighted through a sensitivity analysis regarding the variance of saturated hydraulic conductivity as an index of soil heterogeneity. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simulations of thermal upgrading methods for oil shale reservoirs

This paper analyzes reaction and thermal front development in porous reservoirs with reacting flows, such as those encountered in shale oil extraction. A set of dimensionless parameters and a 3D code are developed in order to investigate the important physical and chemical variables of such reservoirs when heated by in situ methods. This contribution builds on a 1D model developed for the precursor study to this work. Theory necessary for this study is presented, namely shale decomposition chemical mechanisms, governing equations for multiphase flow in porous media and necessary closure models. Plotting the ratio of the thermal wave speed to the fluid speed allows one to infer that the reaction wave front ends where this ratio is at a minimum. The reaction front follows the thermal front closely, thus allowing assumptions to be made about the extent of decomposition solely by looking at thermal wave progression. Furthermore, this sensitivity analysis showed that a certain minimum permeability is required in order to ensure the formation of a traveling thermal wave. It was found that by studying the non-dimensional governing parameters of the system one can ascribe characteristic values for these parameters for given initial and boundary conditions. This allows one to roughly predict the performance of a particular method on a particular reservoir given approximate values for initial and boundary conditions. Channelling and flow blockage due to carbon residue buildup impeded each method's performance. Blockage was found to be a result of imbalanced heating. Copyright 2012, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Matching an oscillator model to a phase response curve

The Phase Response Curve (PRC) has proven a useful tool for the reduction of complex oscillator models. It is also an information often experimentally available to the biologist. This paper introduces a numerical tool based on the sensitivity analysis of the PRC to adapt initial model parameters in order to match a particular PRC shape. We illustrate the approach on a simple biochemical model of circadian oscillator. © 2011 IEEE.

Synchronization and balancing on the N-torus

In this paper, we study the behavior of a network of N agents, each evolving on the circle. We propose a novel algorithm that achieves synchronization or balancing in phase models under mild connectedness assumptions on the (possibly time-varying and unidirectional) communication graphs. The global convergence analysis on the N-torus is a distinctive feature of the present work with respect to previous results that have focused on convergence in the Euclidean space. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A novel theoretical approach to passive control of thermo-acoustic oscillations: Application to ducted heat sources

In this paper, we develop a linear technique that predicts how the stability of a thermo-acoustic system changes due to the action of a generic passive feedback device or a generic change in the base state. From this, one can calculate the passive device or base state change that most stabilizes the system. This theoretical framework, based on adjoint equations, is applied to two types of Rijke tube. The first contains an electrically-heated hot wire and the second contains a diffusion flame. Both heat sources are assumed to be compact so that the acoustic and heat release models can be decoupled. We find that the most effective passive control device is an adiabatic mesh placed at the downstream end of the Rijke tube. We also investigate the effects of a second hot wire and a local variation of the cross-sectional area but find that both affect the frequency more than the growth rate. This application of adjoint sensitivity analysis opens up new possibilities for the passive control of thermo-acoustic oscillations. For example, the influence of base state changes can be combined with other constraints, such as that the total heat release rate remains constant, in order to show how an unstable thermo-acoustic system should be changed in order to make it stable. Copyright © 2013 by ASME.

Shock amplification, curve veering and the role of damping

The circumstances are investigated under which high peak acceleration can occur in the internal parts of a system when subjected to impulsive driving on the outside. Previous work using a coupled beam model has highlighted the importance of veering pairs of modes. Such a veering pair can be approximated by a lumped system with two degrees of freedom. The worst case of acceleration amplification is shown to occur when the two oscillators are tuned to the same frequency, and for this case closed-form expressions are derived to show the parameter dependence of the acceleration ratio on the mass ratio and coupling strength. Sensitivity analysis of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors indicates that mass ratio is the most sensitive parameter for altering the veering behaviour in an undamped system. Non-proportional damping is also shown to have a strong influence on the veering behaviour. The study gives design guidelines to allow permissible acceleration levels to be achieved by the choice of the effective mass and damping of the indirectly driven subsystem relative to the directly driven subsystem. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Kinetic modelling of growth and storage molecule production in microalgae under mixotrophic and autotrophic conditions.

In order to improve algal biofuel production on a commercial-scale, an understanding of algal growth and fuel molecule accumulation is essential. A mathematical model is presented that describes biomass growth and storage molecule (TAG lipid and starch) accumulation in the freshwater microalga Chlorella vulgaris, under mixotrophic and autotrophic conditions. Biomass growth was formulated based on the Droop model, while the storage molecule production was calculated based on the carbon balance within the algal cells incorporating carbon fixation via photosynthesis, organic carbon uptake and functional biomass growth. The model was validated with experimental growth data of C. vulgaris and was found to fit the data well. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model performance was highly sensitive to variations in parameters associated with nutrient factors, photosynthesis and light intensity. The maximum productivity and biomass concentration were achieved under mixotrophic nitrogen sufficient conditions, while the maximum storage content was obtained under mixotrophic nitrogen deficient conditions.

Material point method for coupled hydromechanical problems

This paper describes a new formulation of the material point method (MPM) for solving coupled hydromechanical problems of fluid-saturated soil subjected to large deformation. A soil-pore fluid coupled MPM algorithm based on Biot's mixture theory is proposed for solving hydromechanical interaction problems that include changes in water table location with time. The accuracy of the proposed method is examined by comparing the results of the simulation of a one-dimensional consolidation test with the corresponding analytical solution. A sensitivity analysis of the MPM parameters used in the proposed method is carried out for examining the effect of the number of particles per mesh and mesh size on solution accuracy. For demonstrating the capability of the proposed method, a physical model experiment of a large-scale levee failure by seepage is simulated. The behavior of the levee model with time-dependent changes in water table matches well to the experimental observations. The mechanisms of seepage-induced failure are discussed by examining the pore-water pressures, as well as the effective stresses computed from the simulations © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.