41 resultados para Forecast combination
Resumo:
The interaction between vortices, sound and combustion can lead to self-excited oscillations of such large amplitudes that structural damage is done. These occur because any small unsteadiness in the rate of combustion is a source of sound, generating pressure and velocity fluctuations. However, the velocity fluctuations perturb the flame, thereby altering the instantaneous rate of heat release. Instability is then possible because while acoustic waves perturb the combustion, the unsteady combustion generates yet more sound! Combustion oscillations can occur in afterburners and at idle in conventional aeroengine combustors. Lean premixed, prevapourized technology has tremendous potential to reduce NOx emissions, but is proving highly susceptible to self-excited oscillations. An overview of the physics of the interaction between vortices, sound and flames is presented, and illustrated by examples of instability in generic premixed ducted flames and in aeroengine combustors. The potential for both passive and active control is discussed.
Resumo:
Most behavioral tasks have time constraints for successful completion, such as catching a ball in flight. Many of these tasks require trading off the time allocated to perception and action, especially when only one of the two is possible at any time. In general, the longer we perceive, the smaller the uncertainty in perceptual estimates. However, a longer perception phase leaves less time for action, which results in less precise movements. Here we examine subjects catching a virtual ball. Critically, as soon as subjects began to move, the ball became invisible. We study how subjects trade-off sensory and movement uncertainty by deciding when to initiate their actions. We formulate this task in a probabilistic framework and show that subjects' decisions when to start moving are statistically near optimal given their individual sensory and motor uncertainties. Moreover, we accurately predict individual subject's task performance. Thus we show that subjects in a natural task are quantitatively aware of how sensory and motor variability depend on time and act so as to minimize overall task variability.