Risk-sensitivity and the mean-variance trade-off: decision making in sensorimotor control.

Numerous psychophysical studies suggest that the sensorimotor system chooses actions that optimize the average cost associated with a movement. Recently, however, violations of this hypothesis have been reported in line with economic theories of decision-making that not only consider the mean payoff, but are also sensitive to risk, that is the variability of the payoff. Here, we examine the hypothesis that risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control arises as a mean-variance trade-off in movement costs. We designed a motor task in which participants could choose between a sure motor action that resulted in a fixed amount of effort and a risky motor action that resulted in a variable amount of effort that could be either lower or higher than the fixed effort. By changing the mean effort of the risky action while experimentally fixing its variance, we determined indifference points at which participants chose equiprobably between the sure, fixed amount of effort option and the risky, variable effort option. Depending on whether participants accepted a variable effort with a mean that was higher, lower or equal to the fixed effort, they could be classified as risk-seeking, risk-averse or risk-neutral. Most subjects were risk-sensitive in our task consistent with a mean-variance trade-off in effort, thereby, underlining the importance of risk-sensitivity in computational models of sensorimotor control.

Risk sensitivity in a motor task with speed-accuracy trade-off.

When a racing driver steers a car around a sharp bend, there is a trade-off between speed and accuracy, in that high speed can lead to a skid whereas a low speed increases lap time, both of which can adversely affect the driver's payoff function. While speed-accuracy trade-offs have been studied extensively, their susceptibility to risk sensitivity is much less understood, since most theories of motor control are risk neutral with respect to payoff, i.e., they only consider mean payoffs and ignore payoff variability. Here we investigate how individual risk attitudes impact a motor task that involves such a speed-accuracy trade-off. We designed an experiment where a target had to be hit and the reward (given in points) increased as a function of both subjects' endpoint accuracy and endpoint velocity. As faster movements lead to poorer endpoint accuracy, the variance of the reward increased for higher velocities. We tested subjects on two reward conditions that had the same mean reward but differed in the variance of the reward. A risk-neutral account predicts that subjects should only maximize the mean reward and hence perform identically in the two conditions. In contrast, we found that some (risk-averse) subjects chose to move with lower velocities and other (risk-seeking) subjects with higher velocities in the condition with higher reward variance (risk). This behavior is suboptimal with regard to maximizing the mean number of points but is in accordance with a risk-sensitive account of movement selection. Our study suggests that individual risk sensitivity is an important factor in motor tasks with speed-accuracy trade-offs.

The potential for thermal energy recovery from wastewater treatment works in Southern England

There is potential to extract energy from wastewater in a number of ways, including: kinetic energy using micro-hydro systems, chemical energy through the incineration of sludge, biomass energy from the biogas produced after anaerobic sludge digestion, and thermal energy as heat. This paper considers the last option and asks how much heat could be recovered under UK climatic conditions and can this heat be used effectively by wastewater treatment plants to reduce their carbon footprint? Four wastewater treatment sites in southern England are investigated and the available heat that can be recovered at those sites is quantified. Issues relating to the environmental, economic and practical constraints on how energy can be realistically recovered and utilised are discussed .The results show there is a definite possibility for thermal energy recovery with potential savings at some sites of up to 35,000 tonnes of total long-cycle carbon equivalent (fossil fuel) emissions per year being achievable. The paper also shows that the financial feasibility of three options for using the heat (either for district heating, sludge drying or thermophilic heating in sludge digestion processes) is highly dependant upon the current shadow price of carbon. Without the inclusion of the cost of carbon, the financial feasibility is significantly limited. An environmental constraint for the allowable discharge temperature of effluent after heat-extraction was found to be the major limitation to the amount of energy available for recovery. The paper establishes the true potential of thermal energy recovery from wastewater in English conditions and the economic feasibility of reducing the carbon footprint of wastewater treatment operations using this approach.