Towards probabilistic performance metrics for climate change impact studies

This paper explores the current state-of-the-art in performance indicators and use of probabilistic approaches used in climate change impact studies. It presents a critical review of recent publications in this field, focussing on (1) metrics for energy use for heating and cooling, emissions, overheating and high-level performance aspects, and (2) uptake of uncertainty and risk analysis. This is followed by a case study, which is used to explore some of the contextual issues around the broader uptake of climate change impact studies in practice. The work concludes that probabilistic predictions of the impact of climate change are feasible, but only based on strict and explicitly stated assumptions. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: A study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution

Climate change is expected to have significant impact on the future thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation and sensitivity analysis can be employed to predict these impacts, guiding interventions to adapt buildings to future conditions. This article explores the use of simulation to study the impact of climate change on a theoretical office building in the UK, employing a probabilistic approach. The work studies (1) appropriate performance metrics and underlying modelling assumptions, (2) sensitivity of computational results to identify key design parameters and (3) the impact of zonal resolution. The conclusions highlight the importance of assumptions in the field of electricity conversion factors, proper management of internal heat gains, and the need to use an appropriately detailed zonal resolution. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of adaptive thermal comfort in the prediction of the thermal performance of a modern mixed-mode office building in the UK under climate change

Climate change is becoming a serious issue for the construction industry, since the time scales at which climate change takes place can be expected to show a true impact on the thermal performance of buildings and HVAC systems. In predicting this future building performance by means of building simulation, the underlying assumptions regarding thermal comfort conditions and the related heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) control set points become important. This article studies the thermal performance of a reference office building with mixedmode ventilation in the UK, using static and adaptive thermal approaches, for a series of time horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). Results demonstrate the importance of the implementation of adaptive thermal comfort models, and underpin the case for its use in climate change impact studies. Adaptive thermal comfort can also be used by building designers to make buildings more resilient towards change. © 2010 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

The role for low carbon electrification technologies in poverty reduction and climate change strategies: A focus on renewable energy mini-grids with case studies in Nepal, Peru and Kenya

As a potential poverty reduction and climate change strategy, this paper considers the advantages and disadvantages of using renewable energy technologies for rural electrification in developing countries. Although each case must be considered independently, given a reliable fuel source, renewable energy mini-grids powered by biomass gasifiers or micro-hydro plants appear to be the favoured option due to their lower levelised costs, provision of AC power, potential to provide a 24. h service and ability to host larger capacity systems that can power a wide range of electricity uses. Sustainability indicators are applied to three case studies in order to explore the extent to which sustainable welfare benefits can be created by renewable energy mini-grids. Policy work should focus on raising awareness about renewable energy mini-grids, improving institutional, technical and regulatory frameworks and developing innovative financing mechanisms to encourage private sector investments. Establishing joint technology and community engagement training centres should also be encouraged. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change

This article reports on the use of building performance simulation to quantify the risks that climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. Through a number of case studies the article demonstrates that any prediction of the probable thermal building performance on the long timeframes inherent in climate change comes with very large uncertainties. The same cases are used to illustrate that assessing the consequences of predicted change is problematic, since the functions that the building provides in themselves often are a moving target. The article concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictions. Further research that is needed to move to more effective discussion about risk acceptance and risk abatement for specific buildings is identified. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Building performance simulation for the management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change

This paper reports on research that uses building performance simulation and uncertainty analysis to assess the risks that projected climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. The work takes meteorological climate change predictions as a starting point, but also takes into account developments and uncertainties in technology, occupancy, intervention and renovation, and others. Four cases are studied in depth to explore the prospects of the quantification of said climate change risks. The research concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictive assumptions on the input side.

A Principled Climate Change Scepticism’

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Designing climate change mitigation plans that add up.

Mitigation plans to combat climate change depend on the combined implementation of many abatement options, but the options interact. Published anthropogenic emissions inventories are disaggregated by gas, sector, country, or final energy form. This allows the assessment of novel energy supply options, but is insufficient for understanding how options for efficiency and demand reduction interact. A consistent framework for understanding the drivers of emissions is therefore developed, with a set of seven complete inventories reflecting all technical options for mitigation connected through lossless allocation matrices. The required data set is compiled and calculated from a wide range of industry, government, and academic reports. The framework is used to create a global Sankey diagram to relate human demand for services to anthropogenic emissions. The application of this framework is demonstrated through a prediction of per-capita emissions based on service demand in different countries, and through an example showing how the "technical potentials" of a set of separate mitigation options should be combined.