The steel scrap age.

Steel production accounts for 25% of industrial carbon emissions. Long-term forecasts of steel demand and scrap supply are needed to develop strategies for how the steel industry could respond to industrialization and urbanization in the developing world while simultaneously reducing its environmental impact, and in particular, its carbon footprint. We developed a dynamic stock model to estimate future final demand for steel and the available scrap for 10 world regions. Based on evidence from developed countries, we assumed that per capita in-use stocks will saturate eventually. We determined the response of the entire steel cycle to stock saturation, in particular the future split between primary and secondary steel production. During the 21st century, steel demand may peak in the developed world, China, the Middle East, Latin America, and India. As China completes its industrialization, global primary steel production may peak between 2020 and 2030 and decline thereafter. We developed a capacity model to show how extensive trade of finished steel could prolong the lifetime of the Chinese steelmaking assets. Secondary steel production will more than double by 2050, and it may surpass primary production between 2050 and 2060: the late 21st century can become the steel scrap age.

Engineering Fundamentals of Energy Efficiency

Using energy more efficiently is essential if carbon emissions are to be reduced. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy efficiency improvements represent the largest and least costly savings in carbon emissions, even when compared with renewables, nuclear power and carbon capture and storage. Yet, how should future priorities be directed? Should efforts be focused on light bulbs or diesel engines, insulating houses or improving coal-fired power stations? Previous attempts to assess energy efficiency options provide a useful snapshot for directing short-term responses, but are limited to only known technologies developed under current economic conditions. Tomorrow's economic drivers are not easy to forecast, and new technical solutions often present in a disruptive manner. Fortunately, the theoretical and practical efficiency limits do not vary with time, allowing the uncertainty of economic forecasts to be avoided and the potential of yet to be discovered efficient designs to be captured. This research aims to provide a rational basis for assessing all future developments in energy efficiency. The global fow of energy through technical devices is traced from fuels to final services, and presented as an energy map to convey visually the scale of energy use. An important distinction is made between conversion devices, which upgrade energy into more useable forms, and passive systems, from which energy is lost as low temperature heat, in exchange for final services. Theoretical efficiency limits are calculated for conversion devices using exergy analysis, and show a 89% potential reduction in energy use. Efforts should be focused on improving the efficiency of, in relative order: biomass burners, refrigeration systems, gas burners and petrol engines. For passive systems, practical utilisation limits are calculated based on engineering models, and demonstrate energy savings of 73% are achievable. Significant gains are found in technical solutions that increase the thermal insulation of building fabrics and reduce the mass of vehicles. The result of this work is a consistent basis for comparing efficiency options, that can enable future technical research and energy policy to be directed towards the actions that will make the most difference.

Briefing: Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050 - Urban Foresight and Transition Management

Cities may be responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption and by 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population could live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city regions systemically to re-engineer their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050: Urban Foresight and Transition Management (Retrofit 2050) is a major new interdisciplinary project funded under the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council's (EPSRC) Sustainable Urban Environments Programme which seeks to address this challenge. This briefing describes the background and conceptual framing of Retrofit 2050 project, its aims and objectives and research approach.

Viability and performance of demountable composite connectors

Material production, and associated carbon emissions, could be reduced by reusing products instead of landfilling or recycling them. Steel beams are well suited to reuse, but are difficult to reuse when connected compositely to concrete slabs using welded studs. A demountable connection would allow composite performance but also permit reuse of both components at end-of-life. Three composite beams, of 2 m, 10 m and 5 m length, are constructed using M20 bolts as demountable shear connectors. The beams are tested in three-, six- and four-point bending, respectively. The former two are loaded to service, unloaded, demounted and reassembled; all three are tested to failure. The results show that all three have higher strengths than predicted using Eurocode 4. The longer specimens have performance similar to previously published comparable welded-connector composite beam results. This suggests that demountable composite beams can be safely used and practically reused, thus reducing carbon emissions. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon dioxide from earthworks: A bottom-up approach

Concerns over climate change mean engineers need to understand the greenhouse gas emissions associated with infrastructure projects. Standard coefficients are increasingly used to calculate the embodied emissions of construction materials, but these are not generally appropriate to inherently variable earthworks. This paper describes a new tool that takes a bottom-up approach to calculating carbon dioxide emissions from earthworks operations. In the case of bulk earthworks this is predominantly from the fuel used by machinery moving materials already on site. Typical earthworks solutions are explored along with the impact of using manufactured materials such as lime.

Implications of local lifecycle analyses and low carbon fuel standard design on gasohol transportation fuels

State and regional policies, such as low carbon fuel standards (LCFSs), increasingly mandate that transportation fuels be examined according to their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We investigate whether such policies benefit from determining fuel carbon intensities (FCIs) locally to account for variations in fuel production and to stimulate improvements in FCI. In this study, we examine the FCI of transportation fuels on a lifecycle basis within a specific state, Minnesota, and compare the results to FCIs using national averages. Using data compiled from 18 refineries over an 11-year period, we find that ethanol production is highly variable, resulting in a 42% difference between carbon intensities. Historical data suggests that lower FCIs are possible through incremental improvements in refining efficiency and the use of biomass for processing heat. Stochastic modeling of the corn ethanol FCI shows that gains in certainty due to knowledge of specific refinery inputs are overwhelmed by uncertainty in parameters external to the refiner, including impacts of fertilization and land use change. The LCA results are incorporated into multiple policy scenarios to demonstrate the effect of policy configurations on the use of alternative fuels. These results provide a contrast between volumetric mandates and LCFSs. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Embodied Energy and Gas Emissions of Retaining Wall Structures

The embodied energy (EE) and gas emissions of four design alternatives for an embankment retaining wall system are analyzed for a hypothetical highway construction project. The airborne emissions considered are carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4), nitrous oxide (N 2O), sulphur oxides (SO X), and nitrogen oxides (NO X). The process stages considered in this study are the initial materials production, transportation of construction machineries and materials, machinery operation during installation, and machinery depreciations. The objectives are (1) to determine whether there are statistically significant differences among the structural alternatives; (2) to understand the relative proportions of impacts for the process stages within each design; (3) to contextualize the impacts to other aspects in life by comparing the computed EE values to household energy consumption and car emission values; and (4) to examine the validity of the adopted EE as an environmental impact indicator through comparison with the amount of gas emissions. For the project considered in this study, the calculated results indicate that propped steel sheet pile wall and minipile wall systems have less embodied energy and gas emissions than cantilever steel tubular wall and secant concrete pile wall systems. The difference in CO 2 emission for the retaining wall of 100 m length between the most and least environmentally preferable wall design is equivalent to an average 2.0 L family car being driven for 6.2 million miles (or 62 cars with a mileage of 10,000 miles/year for 10 years). The impacts in construction are generally notable and careful consideration and optimization of designs will reduce such impacts. The use of recycled steel or steel pile as reinforcement bar is effective in reducing the environmental impact. The embodied energy value of a given design is correlated to the amount of gas emissions. © 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Development of a tool for rapidly assessing the implementation difficulty and emissions benefits of innovations

Consumer goods manufacturers aiming to reduce the environmental impact associated with their products commonly pursue incremental change strategies, but more radical approaches may be required if we are to address the challenges of sustainable consumption. One strategy to realize step change reductions is to prepare a portfolio of innovations providing different levels of impact reduction in exchange for different levels of organizational resource commitment. In this research a tool is developed to support this strategy, starting with the assumption that through brainstorming or other eco-innovation approaches, a long-list of candidate innovations has been created. The tool assesses the potential greenhouse gas benefit of an innovative option against the difficulty of its implementation. A simple greenhouse gas benefit assessment method based on streamlined LCA was used to analyze impact reduction potential, and a novel measure of implementation difficulty was developed. The predictions of implementation difficulty were compared against expert opinion, and showed similar results indicating the measure can be used sensibly to predict implementation difficulty. The assessment of the environmental gain versus implementation difficulty is visualized in a matrix, showing the trade-offs of several options. The tool is deliberately simple with scalar measures of CO 2 emissions benefits and implementation difficulty so tool users must remain aware of other potential environmental burdens besides greenhouse gases (e.g. water, waste). In addition, although relative life cycle emissions benefits of an option may be low, the absolute impact of an option can be high and there may be other co-benefits, which could justify higher levels of implementation difficulty. Different types of consumer products (e.g. household, personal care, foods) have been evaluated using the tool. Initial trials of the tool within Unilever demonstrate that the tool facilitates rapid evaluation of low-carbon innovations. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of thin film carbon materials and carbon nanotubes as cold cathodes

The field emissions from three different types of carbon films are studied using a Kiethly voltage-current source-measure unit under computer control. The three types of carbon films are : 1) a-C:H:N deposited using an inductively coupled rf PECVD process, where the N content in the films can be as high as 30 at %; 2) cathodic arc deposited tetrahedral amorphous carbon with embedded regions of carbon nanotube and anion structures and 3) unoriented carbon nanotube films on a porous substrate. The films are formed by filtering a solution of nanotubes dispersed in alcohol through the pores and drying.

Carbon dioxide from earthworks: a bottom-up approach.

Concerns over climate change mean engineers need to understand the greenhouse gas emissions associated with infrastructure projects. Standard coefficients are increasingly used to calculate the embodied emissions of construction materials, but these are not generally appropriate to inherently variable earthworks. This paper describes a new tool that takes a bottom-up approach to calculating carbon dioxide emissions from earthworks operations. In the case of bulk earthworks this is predominantly from the fuel used by machinery moving materials already on site. Typical earthworks solutions are explored along with the impact of using manufactured materials such as lime.

Updated correlation between aircraft smoke number and black carbon concentration

Aircraft emissions of black carbon (BC) contribute to anthropogenic climate forcing and degrade air quality. The smoke number (SN) is the current regulatory measure of aircraft particulate matter emissions and quantifies exhaust plume visibility. Several correlations between SN and the exhaust mass concentration of BC (CBC) have been developed, based on measurements relevant to older aircraft engines. These form the basis of the current standard method used to estimate aircraft BC emissions (First Order Approximation version 3 [FOA3]) for the purposes of environmental impact analyses. In this study, BC with a geometric mean diameter (GMD) of 20, 30, and 60 nm and filter diameters of 19 and 35 mm are used to investigate the effect of particle size and sampling variability on SN measurements. For BC with 20 and 30 nm GMD, corresponding to BC emitted by modern aircraft engines, a smaller SN results from a given CBC than is the case for BC with 60 nm GMD, which is more typical of older engines. An updated correlation between CBC and SNthat accounts for typical size of BC emitted by modern aircraft is proposed. An uncertainty of ±25% accounts for variation in GMD in the range 20-30 nm and for the range of filter diameters. The SN-CBC correlation currently used in FOA3 underestimates by a factor of 2.5-3 for SN <15, implying that current estimates of aircraft BC emissions derived from SN are underestimated by the same factor. Copyright © American Association for Aerosol Research.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative powertrains for reduced energy use and CO2 emissions in passenger vehicles

This work analysed the cost-effectiveness of avoiding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using advanced internal combustion engines, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles across the nine UK passenger vehicles segments. Across all vehicle types and powertrain groups, minimum installed motive power was dependent most on the time to accelerate from zero to 96.6km/h (60mph). Hybridising the powertrain reduced the difference in energy use between vehicles with slow (t z - 60 > 8 s) and fast acceleration (t z - 60 < 8 s) times. The cost premium associated with advanced powertrains was dependent most on the powertrain chosen, rather than the performance required. Improving non-powertrain components reduced vehicle road load and allowed total motive capacity to decrease by 17%, energy use by 11%, manufacturing cost premiums by 13% and CO2 emissions abatement costs by 15%. All vehicles with advanced internal combustion engines, most hybrid and plug-in hybrid powertrains reduced net CO2 emissions and had lower lifetime operating costs than the respective segment reference vehicle. Most powertrains using fuel cells and all electric vehicles had positive CO2 emissions abatement costs. However, only vehicles using advanced internal combustion engines and parallel hybrid vehicles may be attractive to consumers by the fuel savings offsetting increases in vehicle cost within two years. This work demonstrates that fuel savings are possible relative to today's fleet, but indicates that the most cost-effective way of reducing fuel consumption and CO2 emissions is by advanced combustion technologies and hybridisation with a parallel topology. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.