Value of information in product recovery decisions: A Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Probabilistic fault identification using vibration data and neural networks

Bayesian formulated neural networks are implemented using hybrid Monte Carlo method for probabilistic fault identification in cylindrical shells. Each of the 20 nominally identical cylindrical shells is divided into three substructures. Holes of (12±2) mm in diameter are introduced in each of the substructures and vibration data are measured. Modal properties and the Coordinate Modal Assurance Criterion (COMAC) are utilized to train the two modal-property-neural-networks. These COMAC are calculated by taking the natural-frequency-vector to be an additional mode. Modal energies are calculated by determining the integrals of the real and imaginary components of the frequency response functions over bandwidths of 12% of the natural frequencies. The modal energies and the Coordinate Modal Energy Assurance Criterion (COMEAC) are used to train the two frequency-response-function-neural-networks. The averages of the two sets of trained-networks (COMAC and COMEAC as well as modal properties and modal energies) form two committees of networks. The COMEAC and the COMAC are found to be better identification data than using modal properties and modal energies directly. The committee approach is observed to give lower standard deviations than the individual methods. The main advantage of the Bayesian formulation is that it gives identities of damage and their respective confidence intervals.

Reconstruction of arbitrary biochemical reaction networks: A compressive sensing approach

Reconstruction of biochemical reaction networks (BRN) and genetic regulatory networks (GRN) in particular is a central topic in systems biology which raises crucial theoretical challenges in system identification. Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) that involve polynomial and rational functions are typically used to model biochemical reaction networks. Such nonlinear models make the problem of determining the connectivity of biochemical networks from time-series experimental data quite difficult. In this paper, we present a network reconstruction algorithm that can deal with ODE model descriptions containing polynomial and rational functions. Rather than identifying the parameters of linear or nonlinear ODEs characterised by pre-defined equation structures, our methodology allows us to determine the nonlinear ODEs structure together with their associated parameters. To solve the network reconstruction problem, we cast it as a compressive sensing (CS) problem and use sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) algorithms as a computationally efficient and robust way to obtain its solution. © 2012 IEEE.

Bayesian Structured Prediction Using Gaussian Processes

We introduce a conceptually novel structured prediction model, GPstruct, which is kernelized, non-parametric and Bayesian, by design. We motivate the model with respect to existing approaches, among others, conditional random fields (CRFs), maximum margin Markov networks (M3N), and structured support vector machines (SVMstruct), which embody only a subset of its properties. We present an inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The framework can be instantiated for a wide range of structured objects such as linear chains, trees, grids, and other general graphs. As a proof of concept, the model is benchmarked on several natural language processing tasks and a video gesture segmentation task involving a linear chain structure. We show prediction accuracies for GPstruct which are comparable to or exceeding those of CRFs and SVMstruct.

Preliminary model development for predicting strength and stiffness of cement-stabilized soils using artificial neural networks

This paper presents ongoing work on data collection and collation from a large number of laboratory cement-stabilization projects worldwide. The aim is to employ Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to establish relationships between variables, which define the properties of cement-stabilized soils, and the two parameters determined by the Unconfined Compression Test, the Unconfined Compressive Strength (UCS), and stiffness, using E50 calculated from UCS results. Bayesian predictive neural network models are developed to predict the UCS values of cement-stabilized inorganic clays/silts, as well as sands as a function of selected soil mix variables, such as grain size distribution, water content, cement content and curing time. A model which can predict the stiffness values of cement-stabilized clays/silts is also developed and compared to the UCS model. The UCS model results emulate known trends better and provide more accurate estimates than the results from the E50 stiffness model. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.