Additive Gaussian processes

We introduce a Gaussian process model of functions which are additive. An additive function is one which decomposes into a sum of low-dimensional functions, each depending on only a subset of the input variables. Additive GPs generalize both Generalized Additive Models, and the standard GP models which use squared-exponential kernels. Hyperparameter learning in this model can be seen as Bayesian Hierarchical Kernel Learning (HKL). We introduce an expressive but tractable parameterization of the kernel function, which allows efficient evaluation of all input interaction terms, whose number is exponential in the input dimension. The additional structure discoverable by this model results in increased interpretability, as well as state-of-the-art predictive power in regression tasks.

Gaussian Process training with input noise

In standard Gaussian Process regression input locations are assumed to be noise free. We present a simple yet effective GP model for training on input points corrupted by i.i.d. Gaussian noise. To make computations tractable we use a local linear expansion about each input point. This allows the input noise to be recast as output noise proportional to the squared gradient of the GP posterior mean. The input noise variances are inferred from the data as extra hyperparameters. They are trained alongside other hyperparameters by the usual method of maximisation of the marginal likelihood. Training uses an iterative scheme, which alternates between optimising the hyperparameters and calculating the posterior gradient. Analytic predictive moments can then be found for Gaussian distributed test points. We compare our model to others over a range of different regression problems and show that it improves over current methods.

Outage probability of the gaussian MIMO free-space optical channel with PPM

Atmospheric effects can significantly degrade the reliability of free-space optical communications. One such effect is scintillation, caused by atmospheric turbulence, refers to random fluctuations in the irradiance and phase of the received laser beam. In this paper we inv stigate the use of multiple lasers and multiple apertures to mitigate scintillation. Since the scintillation process is slow, we adopt a block fading channel model and study the outage probability under the assumptions of orthogonal pulse-position modulation and non-ideal photodetection. Assuming perfect receiver channel state information (CSI), we derive the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) exponents for the cases when the scintillation is lognormal, exponential and gammagamma distributed, which cover a wide range of atmospheric turbulence conditions. Furthermore, when CSI is also available at the transmitter, we illustrate very large gains in SNR are possible (in some cases larger than 15 dB) by adapting the transmitted power. Under a long-term power constraint, we outline fundamental design criteria via a simple expression that relates the required number of lasers and apertures for a given code rate and number of codeword blocks to completely remove system outages. Copyright © 2009 IEEE.

State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes

State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is an unsolved problem. We propose a new, general methodology for inference and learning in nonlinear state-space models that are described probabilistically by non-parametric GP models. We apply the expectation maximization algorithm to iterate between inference in the latent state-space and learning the parameters of the underlying GP dynamics model. Copyright 2010 by the authors.

Robust filtering and smoothing with gaussian processes

We propose a principled algorithm for robust Bayesian filtering and smoothing in nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems when both the transition function and the measurement function are described by non-parametric Gaussian process (GP) models. GPs are gaining increasing importance in signal processing, machine learning, robotics, and control for representing unknown system functions by posterior probability distributions. This modern way of system identification is more robust than finding point estimates of a parametric function representation. Our principled filtering/smoothing approach for GP dynamic systems is based on analytic moment matching in the context of the forward-backward algorithm. Our numerical evaluations demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach in situations where other state-of-the-art Gaussian filters and smoothers can fail. © 2011 IEEE.

Nested sampling for materials: the case of hard spheres

The recently introduced nested sampling algorithm allows the direct and efficient calculation of the partition function of atomistic systems. We demonstrate its applicability to condensed phase systems with periodic boundary conditions by studying the three dimensional hard sphere model. Having obtained the partition function, we show how easy it is to calculate the compressibility and the free energy as functions of the packing fraction and local order, verifying that the transition to crystallinity has a very small barrier, and that the entropic contribution of jammed states to the free energy is negligible for packing fractions above the phase transition. We quantify the previously proposed schematic phase diagram and estimate the extent of the region of jammed states. We find that within our samples, the maximally random jammed configuration is surprisingly disordered.

Linear gaussian computations for near-exact Bayesian Monte Carlo inference in skewed alpha-stable time series models

In this paper we study parameter estimation for time series with asymmetric α-stable innovations. The proposed methods use a Poisson sum series representation (PSSR) for the asymmetric α-stable noise to express the process in a conditionally Gaussian framework. That allows us to implement Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We further enhance the series representation by introducing a novel approximation of the series residual terms in which we are able to characterise the mean and variance of the approximation. Simulations illustrate the proposed framework applied to linear time series, estimating the model parameter values and model order P for an autoregressive (AR(P)) model driven by asymmetric α-stable innovations. © 2012 IEEE.

Representations and algorithms for finite-state bisimulations of linear discrete-time control systems

While a large amount of research over the past two decades has focused on discrete abstractions of infinite-state dynamical systems, many structural and algorithmic details of these abstractions remain unknown. To clarify the computational resources needed to perform discrete abstractions, this paper examines the algorithmic properties of an existing method for deriving finite-state systems that are bisimilar to linear discrete-time control systems. We explicitly find the structure of the finite-state system, show that it can be enormous compared to the original linear system, and give conditions to guarantee that the finite-state system is reasonably sized and efficiently computable. Though constructing the finite-state system is generally impractical, we see that special cases could be amenable to satisfiability based verification techniques. ©2009 IEEE.

Modeling fatigue crack growth in crystalline solids with discrete dislocation plasticity

Analyses of crack growth under cyclic loading conditions are discussed where plastic flow arises from the motion of large numbers of discrete dislocations and the fracture properties are embedded in a cohesive surface constitutive relation. The formulation is the same as used to analyse crack growth under monotonic loading conditions, differing only in the remote loading being a cyclic function of time. Fatigue, i.e. crack growth in cyclic loading at a driving force for which the crack would have arrested under monotonic loading, emerges in the simulations as a consequence of the evolution of internal stresses associated with the irreversibility of the dislocation motion. A fatigue threshold, Paris law behaviour, striations, the accelerated growth of short cracks and the scaling with material properties are outcomes of the calculations. Results for single crystals and polycrystals will be discussed.

Sensor data scheduling for linear quadratic Gaussian control with full state feedback

Networked control systems (NCSs) have attracted much attention in the past decade due to their many advantages and growing number of applications. Different than classic control systems, resources in NCSs, such as network bandwidth and communication energy, are often limited, which degrade the closed-loop system performance and may even cause the system to become unstable. Seeking a desired trade-off between the closed-loop system performance and the limited resources is thus one heated area of research. In this paper, we analyze the trade-off between the sensor-to-controller communication rate and the closed-loop system performance indexed by the conventional LQG control cost. We present and compare several sensor data schedules, and demonstrate that two event-based sensor data schedules provide better trade-off than an optimal offline schedule. Simulation examples are provided to illustrate the theories developed in the paper. © 2012 AACC American Automatic Control Council).

Random function priors for exchangeable arrays with applications to graphs and relational data

A fundamental problem in the analysis of structured relational data like graphs, networks, databases, and matrices is to extract a summary of the common structure underlying relations between individual entities. Relational data are typically encoded in the form of arrays; invariance to the ordering of rows and columns corresponds to exchangeable arrays. Results in probability theory due to Aldous, Hoover and Kallenberg show that exchangeable arrays can be represented in terms of a random measurable function which constitutes the natural model parameter in a Bayesian model. We obtain a flexible yet simple Bayesian nonparametric model by placing a Gaussian process prior on the parameter function. Efficient inference utilises elliptical slice sampling combined with a random sparse approximation to the Gaussian process. We demonstrate applications of the model to network data and clarify its relation to models in the literature, several of which emerge as special cases.

Gaussian Approximation Potential: an interatomic potential derived from first principles Quantum Mechanics

Simulation of materials at the atomistic level is an important tool in studying microscopic structure and processes. The atomic interactions necessary for the simulation are correctly described by Quantum Mechanics. However, the computational resources required to solve the quantum mechanical equations limits the use of Quantum Mechanics at most to a few hundreds of atoms and only to a small fraction of the available configurational space. This thesis presents the results of my research on the development of a new interatomic potential generation scheme, which we refer to as Gaussian Approximation Potentials. In our framework, the quantum mechanical potential energy surface is interpolated between a set of predetermined values at different points in atomic configurational space by a non-linear, non-parametric regression method, the Gaussian Process. To perform the fitting, we represent the atomic environments by the bispectrum, which is invariant to permutations of the atoms in the neighbourhood and to global rotations. The result is a general scheme, that allows one to generate interatomic potentials based on arbitrary quantum mechanical data. We built a series of Gaussian Approximation Potentials using data obtained from Density Functional Theory and tested the capabilities of the method. We showed that our models reproduce the quantum mechanical potential energy surface remarkably well for the group IV semiconductors, iron and gallium nitride. Our potentials, while maintaining quantum mechanical accuracy, are several orders of magnitude faster than Quantum Mechanical methods.