240 resultados para incorporate probabilistic techniques


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Gas turbine engine performance requires effective and reliable internal cooling over the duty cycle of the engine. Life predictions for rotating components subject to the main gas path temperatures are vital. This demands increased precision in the specification of the internal air system flows which provide turbine stator well cooling and sealing. This in turn requires detailed knowledge of the flow rates through rim seals and interstage labyrinth seals. Knowledge of seal movement and clearances at operating temperatures is of great importance when prescribing these flows. A test facility has been developed at the University of Sussex, incorporating a two stage turbine rated at 400 kW with an individual stage pressure ratio of 1.7:1. The mechanical design of the test facility allows internal cooling geometry to be rapidly re-configured, while cooling flow rates of between 0.71 CW, ENT and 1.46 C W, ENT, may be set to allow ingress or egress dominated cavity flows. The main annulus and cavity conditions correspond to in cavity rotational Reynolds numbers of 1.71×106< Reφ <1.93×106. Displacement sensors have been used to establish hot running seal clearances over a range of stator well flow conditions, allowing realistic flow rates to be calculated. Additionally, gas seeding techniques have been developed, where stator well and main annulus flow interactions are evaluated by measuring changes in gas concentration. Experiments have been performed which allow rim seal and re-ingestion flows to be quantified. It will be shown that this work develops the measurement of stator well cooling flows and provides data suitable for the validation of improved thermo-mechanical and CFD codes, beneficial to the engine design process. Copyright © 2011 by Rolls-Royce plc.

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This research proposes a method for extracting technology intelligence (TI) systematically from a large set of document data. To do this, the internal and external sources in the form of documents, which might be valuable for TI, are first identified. Then the existing techniques and software systems applicable to document analysis are examined. Finally, based on the reviews, a document-mining framework designed for TI is suggested and guidelines for software selection are proposed. The research output is expected to support intelligence operatives in finding suitable techniques and software systems for getting value from document-mining and thus facilitate effective knowledge management. Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

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There are many methods for decomposing signals into a sum of amplitude and frequency modulated sinusoids. In this paper we take a new estimation based approach. Identifying the problem as ill-posed, we show how to regularize the solution by imposing soft constraints on the amplitude and phase variables of the sinusoids. Estimation proceeds using a version of Kalman smoothing. We evaluate the method on synthetic and natural, clean and noisy signals, showing that it outperforms previous decompositions, but at a higher computational cost. © 2012 IEEE.

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Modelling is fundamental to many fields of science and engineering. A model can be thought of as a representation of possible data one could predict from a system. The probabilistic approach to modelling uses probability theory to express all aspects of uncertainty in the model. The probabilistic approach is synonymous with Bayesian modelling, which simply uses the rules of probability theory in order to make predictions, compare alternative models, and learn model parameters and structure from data. This simple and elegant framework is most powerful when coupled with flexible probabilistic models. Flexibility is achieved through the use of Bayesian non-parametrics. This article provides an overview of probabilistic modelling and an accessible survey of some of the main tools in Bayesian non-parametrics. The survey covers the use of Bayesian non-parametrics for modelling unknown functions, density estimation, clustering, time-series modelling, and representing sparsity, hierarchies, and covariance structure. More specifically, it gives brief non-technical overviews of Gaussian processes, Dirichlet processes, infinite hidden Markov models, Indian buffet processes, Kingman's coalescent, Dirichlet diffusion trees and Wishart processes.

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This paper presents the development and the application of a multi-objective optimization framework for the design of two-dimensional multi-element high-lift airfoils. An innovative and efficient optimization algorithm, namely Multi-Objective Tabu Search (MOTS), has been selected as core of the framework. The flow-field around the multi-element configuration is simulated using the commercial computational fluid dynamics (cfd) suite Ansys cfx. Elements shape and deployment settings have been considered as design variables in the optimization of the Garteur A310 airfoil, as presented here. A validation and verification process of the cfd simulation for the Garteur airfoil is performed using available wind tunnel data. Two design examples are presented in this study: a single-point optimization aiming at concurrently increasing the lift and drag performance of the test case at a fixed angle of attack and a multi-point optimization. The latter aims at introducing operational robustness and off-design performance into the design process. Finally, the performance of the MOTS algorithm is assessed by comparison with the leading NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm) optimization strategy. An equivalent framework developed by the authors within the industrial sponsor environment is used for the comparison. To eliminate cfd solver dependencies three optimum solutions from the Pareto optimal set have been cross-validated. As a result of this study MOTS has been demonstrated to be an efficient and effective algorithm for aerodynamic optimizations. Copyright © 2012 Tech Science Press.

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The prediction of turbulent oscillatory flow at around transitional Reynolds numbers is considered for an idealized electronics system. To assess the accuracy of turbulence models, comparison is made with measurements. A stochastic procedure is used to recover instantaneous velocity time traces from predictions. This procedure enables more direct comparison with turbulence intensity measurements which have not been filtered to remove the oscillatory flow component. Normal wall distances, required in some turbulence models, are evaluated using a modified Poisson equation based technique. A range of zero, one and two equation turbulence models are tested, including zonal and a non-linear eddy viscosity models. The non-linear and zonal models showed potential for accuracy improvements.

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Amplitude demodulation is an ill-posed problem and so it is natural to treat it from a Bayesian viewpoint, inferring the most likely carrier and envelope under probabilistic constraints. One such treatment is Probabilistic Amplitude Demodulation (PAD), which, whilst computationally more intensive than traditional approaches, offers several advantages. Here we provide methods for estimating the uncertainty in the PAD-derived envelopes and carriers, and for learning free-parameters like the time-scale of the envelope. We show how the probabilistic approach can naturally handle noisy and missing data. Finally, we indicate how to extend the model to signals which contain multiple modulators and carriers.

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Auditory scene analysis is extremely challenging. One approach, perhaps that adopted by the brain, is to shape useful representations of sounds on prior knowledge about their statistical structure. For example, sounds with harmonic sections are common and so time-frequency representations are efficient. Most current representations concentrate on the shorter components. Here, we propose representations for structures on longer time-scales, like the phonemes and sentences of speech. We decompose a sound into a product of processes, each with its own characteristic time-scale. This demodulation cascade relates to classical amplitude demodulation, but traditional algorithms fail to realise the representation fully. A new approach, probabilistic amplitude demodulation, is shown to out-perform the established methods, and to easily extend to representation of a full demodulation cascade.

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In the face of increasing demand and limited emission reduction opportunities, the steel industry will have to look beyond its process emissions to bear its share of emission reduction targets. One option is to improve material efficiency - reducing the amount of metal required to meet services. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to explore why opportunities to improve material efficiency through upstream measures such as yield improvement and lightweighting might remain underexploited by industry. Established input-output techniques are applied to the GTAP 7 multi-regional input-output model to quantify the incentives for companies in key steel-using sectors (such as property developers and automotive companies) to seek opportunities to improve material efficiency in their upstream supply chains under different short-run carbon price scenarios. Because of the underlying assumptions, the incentives are interpreted as overestimates. The principal result of the paper is that these generous estimates of the incentives for material efficiency caused by a carbon price are offset by the disincentives to material efficiency caused by labour taxes. Reliance on a carbon price alone to deliver material efficiency would therefore be misguided and additional policy interventions to support material efficiency should be considered. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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This paper proposes a hierarchical probabilistic model for ordinal matrix factorization. Unlike previous approaches, we model the ordinal nature of the data and take a principled approach to incorporating priors for the hidden variables. Two algorithms are presented for inference, one based on Gibbs sampling and one based on variational Bayes. Importantly, these algorithms may be implemented in the factorization of very large matrices with missing entries. The model is evaluated on a collaborative filtering task, where users have rated a collection of movies and the system is asked to predict their ratings for other movies. The Netflix data set is used for evaluation, which consists of around 100 million ratings. Using root mean-squared error (RMSE) as an evaluation metric, results show that the suggested model outperforms alternative factorization techniques. Results also show how Gibbs sampling outperforms variational Bayes on this task, despite the large number of ratings and model parameters. Matlab implementations of the proposed algorithms are available from cogsys.imm.dtu.dk/ordinalmatrixfactorization.

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We report on the preparation conditions of YBa2Cu3O7 polycrystalline superconducting tapes by a sol-gel deposition technique. We present some discussion on the compatibility between the nature of the substrate, the use of a buffer layer, and the conditions used to prepare appropriate superconducting YBa2Cu3O7 materials. We report also on the microstructural characterizations performed in order to evaluate the crystallites size, degree of orientation and connectivity. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.