A comparison of methods for assessing the lifetime reliability of a moored FPSO

Current design codes for floating offshore structures are based on measures of short-term reliability. That is, a design storm is selected via an extreme value analysis of the environmental conditions and the reliability of the vessel in that design storm is computed. Although this approach yields valuable information on the vessel motions, it does not produce a statistically rigorous assessment of the lifetime probability of failure. An alternative approach is to perform a long-term reliability analysis in which consideration is taken of all sea states potentially encountered by the vessel during the design life. Although permitted as a design approach in current design codes, the associated computational expense generally prevents its use in practice. A new efficient approach to long-term reliability analysis is presented here, the results of which are compared with a traditional short-term analysis for the surge motion of a representative moored FPSO in head seas. This serves to illustrate the failure probabilities actually embedded within current design code methods, and the way in which design methods might be adapted to achieve a specified target safety level.

Physiological modelling for improved reliability in silhouette-driven gradient-based hand tracking

We present a gradient-based motion capture system that robustly tracks a human hand, based on abstracted visual information - silhouettes. Despite the ambiguity in the visual data and despite the vulnerability of gradient-based methods in the face of such ambiguity, we minimise problems related to misfit by using a model of the hand's physiology, which is entirely non-visual, subject-invariant, and assumed to be known a priori. By modelling seven distinct aspects of the hand's physiology we derive prior densities which are incorporated into the tracking system within a Bayesian framework. We demonstrate how the posterior is formed, and how our formulation leads to the extraction of the maximum a posteriori estimate using a gradient-based search. Our results demonstrate an enormous improvement in tracking precision and reliability, while also achieving near real-time performance. © 2009 IEEE.

Investigating the relationships between user capabilities and product demands for older and disabled users

This paper presents the results of a study that specifically looks at the relationships between measured user capabilities and product demands in a sample of older and disabled users. An empirical study was conducted with 19 users performing tasks with four consumer products (a clock-radio, a mobile phone, a blender and a vacuum cleaner). The sensory, cognitive and motor capabilities of each user were measured using objective capability tests. The study yielded a rich dataset comprising capability measures, product demands, outcome measures (task times and errors), and subjective ratings of difficulty. Scatter plots were produced showing quantified product demands on user capabilities, together with subjective ratings of difficulty. The results are analysed in terms of the strength of correlations observed taking into account the limitations of the study sample. Directions for future research are also outlined. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Engineering change impact on product development processes

This paper presents a method to manage Engineering Changes (EC) during the product development process, which is seen to be a complex system. The ability to manage engineering changes efficiently reflects the agility of an enterprise. Although there are unnecessary ECs that should be avoided, many of the ECs are actually beneficial. The proposed method explores the linkages between the product development process features and product specifications dependencies. It suggests ways of identifying and managing specification dependencies to support the Engineering Change Management process. Furthermore, the impacts of an EC on the product specifications as well as on the process organization are studied. © 2009 World Scientific Publishing Company.