Disentangling the Complexity of Early-Stage Technology Acquisitions

While tools have been developed to assist firms' decision making for bringing known products and components into the supply chain, fewer tools are available to guide the acquisition of earlier-stage technologies, which is a riskier proposition due to higher technological and market uncertainties. Through synthesis of literature in technology sourcing, open innovation, alliances, mergers and acquisitions, outsourcing, and technology and knowledge transfer and consultation with industry, this paper identifies critical issues that decision makers should consider before making an early-stage technology acquisition. Sixteen questions emerge to guide decision making, comprising internal, technology, and partner assessments. These questions allow a firm to disentangle the complexity of early-stage technology acquisitions and select the most appropriate targets.

Improving statistical machine translation by classifying and generalizing inflected verb forms

This paper introduces a rule-based classification of single-word and compound verbs into a statistical machine translation approach. By substituting verb forms by the lemma of their head verb, the data sparseness problem caused by highly-inflected languages can be successfully addressed. On the other hand, the information of seen verb forms can be used to generate new translations for unseen verb forms. Translation results for an English to Spanish task are reported, producing a significant performance improvement.

An ngram-based statistical machine translation decoder

In this paper we describe MARIE, an Ngram-based statistical machine translation decoder. It is implemented using a beam search strategy, with distortion (or reordering) capabilities. The underlying translation model is based on an Ngram approach, extended to introduce reordering at the phrase level. The search graph structure is designed to perform very accurate comparisons, what allows for a high level of pruning, improving the decoder efficiency. We report several techniques for efficiently prune out the search space. The combinatory explosion of the search space derived from the search graph structure is reduced by limiting the number of reorderings a given translation is allowed to perform, and also the maximum distance a word (or a phrase) is allowed to be reordered. We finally report translation accuracy results on three different translation tasks.

Phrase linguistic classification and generalization for improving statistical machine translation

In this paper a method to incorporate linguistic information regarding single-word and compound verbs is proposed, as a first step towards an SMT model based on linguistically-classified phrases. By substituting these verb structures by the base form of the head verb, we achieve a better statistical word alignment performance, and are able to better estimate the translation model and generalize to unseen verb forms during translation. Preliminary experiments for the English - Spanish language pair are performed, and future research lines are detailed. © 2005 Association for Computational Linguistics.

Internal representations of temporal statistics and feedback calibrate motor-sensory interval timing.

Humans have been shown to adapt to the temporal statistics of timing tasks so as to optimize the accuracy of their responses, in agreement with the predictions of Bayesian integration. This suggests that they build an internal representation of both the experimentally imposed distribution of time intervals (the prior) and of the error (the loss function). The responses of a Bayesian ideal observer depend crucially on these internal representations, which have only been previously studied for simple distributions. To study the nature of these representations we asked subjects to reproduce time intervals drawn from underlying temporal distributions of varying complexity, from uniform to highly skewed or bimodal while also varying the error mapping that determined the performance feedback. Interval reproduction times were affected by both the distribution and feedback, in good agreement with a performance-optimizing Bayesian observer and actor model. Bayesian model comparison highlighted that subjects were integrating the provided feedback and represented the experimental distribution with a smoothed approximation. A nonparametric reconstruction of the subjective priors from the data shows that they are generally in agreement with the true distributions up to third-order moments, but with systematically heavier tails. In particular, higher-order statistical features (kurtosis, multimodality) seem much harder to acquire. Our findings suggest that humans have only minor constraints on learning lower-order statistical properties of unimodal (including peaked and skewed) distributions of time intervals under the guidance of corrective feedback, and that their behavior is well explained by Bayesian decision theory.

A high-resolution atlas and statistical model of the human heart from multislice CT

Atlases and statistical models play important roles in the personalization and simulation of cardiac physiology. For the study of the heart, however, the construction of comprehensive atlases and spatio-temporal models is faced with a number of challenges, in particular the need to handle large and highly variable image datasets, the multi-region nature of the heart, and the presence of complex as well as small cardiovascular structures. In this paper, we present a detailed atlas and spatio-temporal statistical model of the human heart based on a large population of 3D+time multi-slice computed tomography sequences, and the framework for its construction. It uses spatial normalization based on nonrigid image registration to synthesize a population mean image and establish the spatial relationships between the mean and the subjects in the population. Temporal image registration is then applied to resolve each subject-specific cardiac motion and the resulting transformations are used to warp a surface mesh representation of the atlas to fit the images of the remaining cardiac phases in each subject. Subsequently, we demonstrate the construction of a spatio-temporal statistical model of shape such that the inter-subject and dynamic sources of variation are suitably separated. The framework is applied to a 3D+time data set of 138 subjects. The data is drawn from a variety of pathologies, which benefits its generalization to new subjects and physiological studies. The obtained level of detail and the extendability of the atlas present an advantage over most cardiac models published previously. © 1982-2012 IEEE.

Statistical inference for single- and multi-band probabilistic amplitude demodulation.

Amplitude demodulation is an ill-posed problem and so it is natural to treat it from a Bayesian viewpoint, inferring the most likely carrier and envelope under probabilistic constraints. One such treatment is Probabilistic Amplitude Demodulation (PAD), which, whilst computationally more intensive than traditional approaches, offers several advantages. Here we provide methods for estimating the uncertainty in the PAD-derived envelopes and carriers, and for learning free-parameters like the time-scale of the envelope. We show how the probabilistic approach can naturally handle noisy and missing data. Finally, we indicate how to extend the model to signals which contain multiple modulators and carriers.

A method for analysing operational complexity in supply chains

This paper proposes a method for analysing the operational complexity in supply chains by using an entropic measure based on information theory. The proposed approach estimates the operational complexity at each stage of the supply chain and analyses the changes between stages. In this paper a stage is identified by the exchange of data and/or material. Through analysis the method identifies the stages where the operational complexity is both generated and propagated (exported, imported, generated or absorbed). Central to the method is the identification of a reference point within the supply chain. This is where the operational complexity is at a local minimum along the data transfer stages. Such a point can be thought of as a 'sink' for turbulence generated in the supply chain. Where it exists, it has the merit of stabilising the supply chain by attenuating uncertainty. However, the location of the reference point is also a matter of choice. If the preferred location is other than the current one, this is a trigger for management action. The analysis can help decide appropriate remedial action. More generally, the approach can assist logistics management by highlighting problem areas. An industrial application is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the method. © 2013 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

POMDP-based statistical spoken dialog systems: A review

Statistical dialog systems (SDSs) are motivated by the need for a data-driven framework that reduces the cost of laboriously handcrafting complex dialog managers and that provides robustness against the errors created by speech recognizers operating in noisy environments. By including an explicit Bayesian model of uncertainty and by optimizing the policy via a reward-driven process, partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide such a framework. However, exact model representation and optimization is computationally intractable. Hence, the practical application of POMDP-based systems requires efficient algorithms and carefully constructed approximations. This review article provides an overview of the current state of the art in the development of POMDP-based spoken dialog systems. © 1963-2012 IEEE.