Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Three-dimensional ultrasound imaging.

This review is about the development of three-dimensional (3D) ultrasonic medical imaging, how it works, and where its future lies. It assumes knowledge of two-dimensional (2D) ultrasound, which is covered elsewhere in this issue. The three main ways in which 3D ultrasound may be acquired are described: the mechanically swept 3D probe, the 2D transducer array that can acquire intrinsically 3D data, and the freehand 3D ultrasound. This provides an appreciation of the constraints implicit in each of these approaches together with their strengths and weaknesses. Then some of the techniques that are used for processing the 3D data and the way this can lead to information of clinical value are discussed. A table is provided to show the range of clinical applications reported in the literature. Finally, the discussion relating to the technology and its clinical applications to explain why 3D ultrasound has been relatively slow to be adopted in routine clinics is drawn together and the issues that will govern its development in the future explored.

Application of neural networks to the ranking of perinatal variables influencing birthweight.

In this paper we compare Multi-Layer Perceptrons (a neural network type) with Multivariate Linear Regression in predicting birthweight from nine perinatal variables which are thought to be related. Results show, that seven of the nine variables, i.e., gestational age, mother's body-mass index (BMI), sex of the baby, mother's height, smoking, parity and gravidity, are related to birthweight. We found no significant relationship between birthweight and each of the two variables, i.e., maternal age and social class.

Development of low entropy coding in a recurrent network.

In this paper we present an unsupervised neural network which exhibits competition between units via inhibitory feedback. The operation is such as to minimize reconstruction error, both for individual patterns, and over the entire training set. A key difference from networks which perform principal components analysis, or one of its variants, is the ability to converge to non-orthogonal weight values. We discuss the network's operation in relation to the twin goals of maximizing information transfer and minimizing code entropy, and show how the assignment of prior probabilities to network outputs can help to reduce entropy. We present results from two binary coding problems, and from experiments with image coding.

Sensorless reconstruction of freehand 3D ultrasound data.

Freehand 3D ultrasound can be acquired without a position sensor by finding the separations of pairs of frames using information in the images themselves. Previous work has not considered how to reconstruct entirely freehand data, which can exhibit irregularly spaced frames, non-monotonic out-of-plane probe motion and significant inplane motion. This paper presents reconstruction methods that overcome these limitations and are able to robustly reconstruct freehand data. The methods are assessed on freehand data sets and compared to reconstructions obtained using a position sensor.