Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design

Design work involves uncertainty that arises from, and influences, the progressive development of solutions. This paper analyses the influences of evolving uncertainty levels on the design process. We focus on uncertainties associated with choosing the values of design parameters, and do not consider in detail the issues that arise when parameters must first be identified. Aspects of uncertainty and its evolution are discussed, and a new task-based model is introduced to describe process behaviour in terms of changing uncertainty levels. The model is applied to study two process configuration problems based on aircraft wing design: one using an analytical solution and one using Monte-Carlo simulation. The applications show that modelling uncertainty levels during design can help assess management policies, such as how many concepts should be considered during design and to what level of accuracy. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Seismic model parameter estimation using least-squares migration

We describe a method for verifying seismic modelling parameters. It is equivalent to performing several iterations of unconstrained least-squares migration (LSM). The approach allows the comparison of modelling/imaging parameter configurations with greater confidence than simply viewing the migrated images. The method is best suited to determining discrete parameters but can be used for continuous parameters albeit with greater computational expense.

Parameter extraction and calorimetric validation for a silicon carbide jfet pspice model

This paper focuses on the PSpice model of SiC-JFET element inside a SiCED cascode device. The device model parameters are extracted from the I-V and C-V characterization curves. In order to validate the model, an inductive test rig circuit is designed and tested. The switching loss is estimated both using oscilloscope and calorimeter. These results are found to be in good agreement with the simulated results.

Reinforcement learning for parameter estimation in statistical spoken dialogue systems

Reinforcement techniques have been successfully used to maximise the expected cumulative reward of statistical dialogue systems. Typically, reinforcement learning is used to estimate the parameters of a dialogue policy which selects the system's responses based on the inferred dialogue state. However, the inference of the dialogue state itself depends on a dialogue model which describes the expected behaviour of a user when interacting with the system. Ideally the parameters of this dialogue model should be also optimised to maximise the expected cumulative reward. This article presents two novel reinforcement algorithms for learning the parameters of a dialogue model. First, the Natural Belief Critic algorithm is designed to optimise the model parameters while the policy is kept fixed. This algorithm is suitable, for example, in systems using a handcrafted policy, perhaps prescribed by other design considerations. Second, the Natural Actor and Belief Critic algorithm jointly optimises both the model and the policy parameters. The algorithms are evaluated on a statistical dialogue system modelled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process in a tourist information domain. The evaluation is performed with a user simulator and with real users. The experiments indicate that model parameters estimated to maximise the expected reward function provide improved performance compared to the baseline handcrafted parameters. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.