Probability-Matching Predictors for Extreme Extremes

A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the three-parameter {\mu, \sigma, \xi} Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The predictor is designed to provide matching probability exactly for the GPD in both the extreme heavy-tailed limit and the extreme bounded-tail limit, whilst giving a good approximation to probability matching at all intermediate values of the tail parameter \xi. The predictor is valid even for small sample sizes N, even as small as N = 3. The main purpose of this paper is to present the somewhat lengthy derivations which draw heavily on the theory of hypergeometric functions, particularly the Lauricella functions. Whilst the construction is inspired by the Bayesian approach to the prediction problem, it considers the case of vague prior information about both parameters and model, and all derivations are undertaken using sampling theory.

Output feedback H2 model matching for decentralized systems with delays

This paper gives a new solution to the output feedback H2 model matching problem for a large class of delayed information sharing patterns. Existing methods for similar problems typically reduce the decentralized problem to a centralized problem of higher state dimension. In contrast, this paper demonstrates that the decentralized model matching solution can be constructed from the original centralized solution via quadratic programming. © 2013 AACC American Automatic Control Council.

Optimization algorithms and ODE's in MDO

There is a need for a stronger theoretical understanding of Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) within the field. Having developed a differential geometry framework in response to this need, we consider how standard optimization algorithms can be modeled using systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) while also reviewing optimization algorithms which have been derived from ODE solution methods. We then use some of the framework's tools to show how our resultant systems of ODEs can be analyzed and their behaviour quantitatively evaluated. In doing so, we demonstrate the power and scope of our differential geometry framework, we provide new tools for analyzing MDO systems and their behaviour, and we suggest hitherto neglected optimization methods which may prove particularly useful within the MDO context. Copyright © 2013 by ASME.

Classification using log Gaussian Cox processes

McCullagh and Yang (2006) suggest a family of classification algorithms based on Cox processes. We further investigate the log Gaussian variant which has a number of appealing properties. Conditioned on the covariates, the distribution over labels is given by a type of conditional Markov random field. In the supervised case, computation of the predictive probability of a single test point scales linearly with the number of training points and the multiclass generalization is straightforward. We show new links between the supervised method and classical nonparametric methods. We give a detailed analysis of the pairwise graph representable Markov random field, which we use to extend the model to semi-supervised learning problems, and propose an inference method based on graph min-cuts. We give the first experimental analysis on supervised and semi-supervised datasets and show good empirical performance.

Model-based compressive Harmonic-Aware Matching Pursuit: An evaluation

This paper addresses devising a reliable model-based Harmonic-Aware Matching Pursuit (HAMP) for reconstructing sparse harmonic signals from their compressed samples. The performance guarantees of HAMP are provided; they illustrate that the introduced HAMP requires less data measurements and has lower computational cost compared with other greedy techniques. The complexity of formulating a structured sparse approximation algorithm is highlighted and the inapplicability of the conventional thresholding operator to the harmonic signal model is demonstrated. The harmonic sequential deletion algorithm is subsequently proposed and other sparse approximation methods are evaluated. The superior performance of HAMP is depicted in the presented experiments. © 2013 IEEE.