Gaussian Process Vine Copulas for Multivariate Dependence

Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing a hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas. However, to simplify inference, it is common to assume that each of these conditional bivariate copulas is independent from its conditioning variables. In this paper, we relax this assumption by discovering the latent functions that specify the shape of a conditional copula given its conditioning variables We learn these functions by following a Bayesian approach based on sparse Gaussian processes with expectation propagation for scalable, approximate inference. Experiments on real-world datasets show that, when modeling all conditional dependencies, we obtain better estimates of the underlying copula of the data.

Structure Discovery in Nonparametric Regression through Compositional Kernel Search

Despite its importance, choosing the structural form of the kernel in nonparametric regression remains a black art. We define a space of kernel structures which are built compositionally by adding and multiplying a small number of base kernels. We present a method for searching over this space of structures which mirrors the scientific discovery process. The learned structures can often decompose functions into interpretable components and enable long-range extrapolation on time-series datasets. Our structure search method outperforms many widely used kernels and kernel combination methods on a variety of prediction tasks.

Modelling and control of nonlinear systems using Gaussian processes with partial model information

Gaussian processes are gaining increasing popularity among the control community, in particular for the modelling of discrete time state space systems. However, it has not been clear how to incorporate model information, in the form of known state relationships, when using a Gaussian process as a predictive model. An obvious example of known prior information is position and velocity related states. Incorporation of such information would be beneficial both computationally and for faster dynamics learning. This paper introduces a method of achieving this, yielding faster dynamics learning and a reduction in computational effort from O(Dn2) to O((D - F)n2) in the prediction stage for a system with D states, F known state relationships and n observations. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated through its inclusion in the PILCO learning algorithm with application to the swing-up and balance of a torque-limited pendulum and the balancing of a robotic unicycle in simulation. © 2012 IEEE.

Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning

The code provided here originally demonstrated the main algorithms from Rasmussen and Williams: Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. It has since grown to allow more likelihood functions, further inference methods and a flexible framework for specifying GPs.

Bayesian Structured Prediction Using Gaussian Processes

We introduce a conceptually novel structured prediction model, GPstruct, which is kernelized, non-parametric and Bayesian, by design. We motivate the model with respect to existing approaches, among others, conditional random fields (CRFs), maximum margin Markov networks (M3N), and structured support vector machines (SVMstruct), which embody only a subset of its properties. We present an inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The framework can be instantiated for a wide range of structured objects such as linear chains, trees, grids, and other general graphs. As a proof of concept, the model is benchmarked on several natural language processing tasks and a video gesture segmentation task involving a linear chain structure. We show prediction accuracies for GPstruct which are comparable to or exceeding those of CRFs and SVMstruct.

Determinantal Clustering Processes - A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Kernel Based Semi-Supervised Clustering

Semi-supervised clustering is the task of clustering data points into clusters where only a fraction of the points are labelled. The true number of clusters in the data is often unknown and most models require this parameter as an input. Dirichlet process mixture models are appealing as they can infer the number of clusters from the data. However, these models do not deal with high dimensional data well and can encounter difficulties in inference. We present a novel nonparameteric Bayesian kernel based method to cluster data points without the need to prespecify the number of clusters or to model complicated densities from which data points are assumed to be generated from. The key insight is to use determinants of submatrices of a kernel matrix as a measure of how close together a set of points are. We explore some theoretical properties of the model and derive a natural Gibbs based algorithm with MCMC hyperparameter learning. The model is implemented on a variety of synthetic and real world data sets.

Computational analysis of liquid crystalline elastomer membranes: Changing Gaussian curvature without stretch energy

Liquid crystalline elastomers (LCEs) can undergo extremely large reversible shape changes when exposed to external stimuli, such as mechanical deformations, heating or illumination. The deformation of LCEs result from a combination of directional reorientation of the nematic director and entropic elasticity. In this paper, we study the energetics of initially flat, thin LCE membranes by stress driven reorientation of the nematic director. The energy functional used in the variational formulation includes contributions depending on the deformation gradient and the second gradient of the deformation. The deformation gradient models the in-plane stretching of the membrane. The second gradient regularises the non-convex membrane energy functional so that infinitely fine in-plane microstructures and infinitely fine out-of-plane membrane wrinkling are penalised. For a specific example, our computational results show that a non-developable surface can be generated from an initially flat sheet at cost of only energy terms resulting from the second gradients. That is, Gaussian curvature can be generated in LCE membranes without the cost of stretch energy in contrast to conventional materials. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Free energy surface reconstruction from umbrella samples using Gaussian process regression

We demonstrate how the Gaussian process regression approach can be used to efficiently reconstruct free energy surfaces from umbrella sampling simulations. By making a prior assumption of smoothness and taking account of the sampling noise in a consistent fashion, we achieve a significant improvement in accuracy over the state of the art in two or more dimensions or, equivalently, a significant cost reduction to obtain the free energy surface within a prescribed tolerance in both regimes of spatially sparse data and short sampling trajectories. Stemming from its Bayesian interpretation the method provides meaningful error bars without significant additional computation. A software implementation is made available on www.libatoms.org.

Free energy surface reconstruction from umbrella samples using Gaussian process regression II: Multiple collective variables

We demonstrate how a prior assumption of smoothness can be used to enhance the reconstruction of free energy profiles from multiple umbrella sampling simulations using the Bayesian Gaussian process regression approach. The method we derive allows the concurrent use of histograms and free energy gradients and can easily be extended to include further data. In Part I we review the necessary theory and test the method for one collective variable. We demonstrate improved performance with respect to the weighted histogram analysis method and obtain meaningful error bars without any significant additional computation. In Part II we consider the case of multiple collective variables and compare to a reconstruction using least squares fitting of radial basis functions. We find substantial improvements in the regimes of spatially sparse data or short sampling trajectories. A software implementation is made available on www.libatoms.org.

Gaussian process volatility model

The prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the evolution of the variance. Moreover, functional parameters are usually learned by maximum likelihood, which can lead to over-fitting. To address these problems we introduce GP-Vol, a novel non-parametric model for time-changing variances based on Gaussian Processes. This new model can capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. Furthermore, we introduce a new online algorithm for fast inference in GP-Vol. This method is much faster than current offline inference procedures and it avoids overfitting problems by following a fully Bayesian approach. Experiments with financial data show that GP-Vol performs significantly better than current standard alternatives.

Calibrating the Gaussian multi-target tracking model

We present novel batch and online (sequential) versions of the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm for inferring the static parameters of a multiple target tracking (MTT) model. Online EM is of particular interest as it is a more practical method for long data sets since in batch EM, or a full Bayesian approach, a complete browse of the data is required between successive parameter updates. Online EM is also suited to MTT applications that demand real-time processing of the data. Performance is assessed in numerical examples using simulated data for various scenarios. For batch estimation our method significantly outperforms an existing gradient based maximum likelihood technique, which we show to be significantly biased. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Symmetrical 2-D hermite-gaussian square launch for high bit rate transmission in multimode fiber links

A 2-D Hermite-Gaussian square launch is demonstrated to show improved systems capacity over multimode fiber links. It shows a bandwidth improvement over both center and offset launches and exhibits ±5 ìm misalignment tolerance. © OSA/OFC/NFOEC 2011.