Application of level II reliability theory

Level II reliability theory provides an approximate method whereby the reliability of a complex engineering structure which has multiple strength and loading variables may be estimated. This technique has been applied previously to both civil and offshore structures with considerable success. The aim of the present work is to assess the applicability of the method for aircraft structures, and to this end landing gear design is considered in detail. It is found that the technique yields useful information regarding the structural reliability, and further it enables the critical design parameters to be identified.

An analysis of factors improving technology roadmap credibility: A communications theory assessment of roadmapping processes

In recent years, many industrial firms have been able to use roadmapping as an effective process methodology for projecting future technology and for coordinating technology planning and strategy. Firms potentially realize a number of benefits in deploying technology roadmapping (TRM) processes. Roadmaps provide information identifying which new technologies will meet firms' future product demands, allowing companies to leverage R&D investments through choosing appropriately out of a range of alternative technologies. Moreover, the roadmapping process serves an important communication tool helping to bring about consensus among roadmap developers, as well as between participants brought in during the development process, who may communicate their understanding of shared corporate goals through the roadmap. However, there are few conceptual accounts or case studies have made the argument that roadmapping processes may be used effectively as communication tools. This paper, therefore, seeks to elaborate a theoretical foundation for identifying the factors that must be considered in setting up a roadmap and for analyzing the effect of these factors on technology roadmap credibility as perceived by its users. Based on the survey results of 120 different R&D units, this empirical study found that firms need to explore further how they can enable frequent interactions between the TRM development team and TRM participants. A high level of interaction will improve the credibility of a TRM, with communication channels selected by the organization also positively affecting TRM credibility. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

Analysis of CFRP strap-strengthened reinforced concrete beams using the modified compression field theory (MCFT)

External, prestressed carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) straps can be used to enhance the shear strength of existing reinforced concrete beams. In order to effectively design a strengthening system, a rational predictive theory is required. The current work investigates the ability of the modified compression field theory (MCFT) to predict the behavior of rectangular strap strengthened beams where the discrete CFRP strap forces are approximated as a uniform vertical stress. An unstrengthened control beam and two strengthened beams were tested to verify the predictions. The experimental results suggest that the MCFT could predict the general response of a strengthened beam with a uniform strap spacing < 0.9d. However, whereas the strengthened beams failed in shear, the MCFT predicted flexural failures. It is proposed that a different compression softening model or the inclusion of a crack width limit is required to reflect the onset of shear failures in the strengthened beams.

Know thy neighbour: A normative theory of synaptic depression

Synapses exhibit an extraordinary degree of short-term malleability, with release probabilities and effective synaptic strengths changing markedly over multiple timescales. From the perspective of a fixed computational operation in a network, this seems like a most unacceptable degree of added variability. We suggest an alternative theory according to which short-term synaptic plasticity plays a normatively-justifiable role. This theory starts from the commonplace observation that the spiking of a neuron is an incomplete, digital, report of the analog quantity that contains all the critical information, namely its membrane potential. We suggest that a synapse solves the inverse problem of estimating the pre-synaptic membrane potential from the spikes it receives, acting as a recursive filter. We show that the dynamics of short-term synaptic depression closely resemble those required for optimal filtering, and that they indeed support high quality estimation. Under this account, the local postsynaptic potential and the level of synaptic resources track the (scaled) mean and variance of the estimated presynaptic membrane potential. We make experimentally testable predictions for how the statistics of subthreshold membrane potential fluctuations and the form of spiking non-linearity should be related to the properties of short-term plasticity in any particular cell type.

A reason for unreason: returns-based beliefs in game theory

Players cooperate in experiments more than game theory would predict. We introduce the ‘returns-based beliefs’ approach: the expected returns of a particular strategy in proportion to total expected returns of all strategies. Using a decision analytic solution concept, Luce’s (1959) probabilistic choice model, and ‘hyperpriors’ for ambiguity in players’ cooperability, our approach explains empirical observations in various classes of games including the Prisoner’s and Traveler’s Dilemmas. Testing the closeness of fit of our model on Selten and Chmura (2008) data for completely mixed 2 × 2 games shows that with loss aversion, returns-based beliefs explain the data better than other equilibrium concepts.