Automatic construction and natural-language description of nonparametric regression models

Copyright © 2014, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved. This paper presents the beginnings of an automatic statistician, focusing on regression problems. Our system explores an open-ended space of statistical models to discover a good explanation of a data set, and then produces a detailed report with figures and natural- language text. Our approach treats unknown regression functions non- parametrically using Gaussian processes, which has two important consequences. First, Gaussian processes can model functions in terms of high-level properties (e.g. smoothness, trends, periodicity, changepoints). Taken together with the compositional structure of our language of models this allows us to automatically describe functions in simple terms. Second, the use of flexible nonparametric models and a rich language for composing them in an open-ended manner also results in state- of-the-art extrapolation performance evaluated over 13 real time series data sets from various domains.

The infinite HMM for unsupervised PoS tagging

We extend previous work on fully unsupervised part-of-speech tagging. Using a non-parametric version of the HMM, called the infinite HMM (iHMM), we address the problem of choosing the number of hidden states in unsupervised Markov models for PoS tagging. We experiment with two non-parametric priors, the Dirichlet and Pitman-Yor processes, on the Wall Street Journal dataset using a parallelized implementation of an iHMM inference algorithm. We evaluate the results with a variety of clustering evaluation metrics and achieve equivalent or better performances than previously reported. Building on this promising result we evaluate the output of the unsupervised PoS tagger as a direct replacement for the output of a fully supervised PoS tagger for the task of shallow parsing and compare the two evaluations. © 2009 ACL and AFNLP.

Bayesian Structured Prediction Using Gaussian Processes

We introduce a conceptually novel structured prediction model, GPstruct, which is kernelized, non-parametric and Bayesian, by design. We motivate the model with respect to existing approaches, among others, conditional random fields (CRFs), maximum margin Markov networks (M3N), and structured support vector machines (SVMstruct), which embody only a subset of its properties. We present an inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The framework can be instantiated for a wide range of structured objects such as linear chains, trees, grids, and other general graphs. As a proof of concept, the model is benchmarked on several natural language processing tasks and a video gesture segmentation task involving a linear chain structure. We show prediction accuracies for GPstruct which are comparable to or exceeding those of CRFs and SVMstruct.

Natural actor and belief critic: Reinforcement algorithm for learning parameters of dialogue systems modelled as POMDPs

This article presents a novel algorithm for learning parameters in statistical dialogue systems which are modeled as Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). The three main components of a POMDP dialogue manager are a dialogue model representing dialogue state information; a policy that selects the system's responses based on the inferred state; and a reward function that specifies the desired behavior of the system. Ideally both the model parameters and the policy would be designed to maximize the cumulative reward. However, while there are many techniques available for learning the optimal policy, no good ways of learning the optimal model parameters that scale to real-world dialogue systems have been found yet. The presented algorithm, called the Natural Actor and Belief Critic (NABC), is a policy gradient method that offers a solution to this problem. Based on observed rewards, the algorithm estimates the natural gradient of the expected cumulative reward. The resulting gradient is then used to adapt both the prior distribution of the dialogue model parameters and the policy parameters. In addition, the article presents a variant of the NABC algorithm, called the Natural Belief Critic (NBC), which assumes that the policy is fixed and only the model parameters need to be estimated. The algorithms are evaluated on a spoken dialogue system in the tourist information domain. The experiments show that model parameters estimated to maximize the expected cumulative reward result in significantly improved performance compared to the baseline hand-crafted model parameters. The algorithms are also compared to optimization techniques using plain gradients and state-of-the-art random search algorithms. In all cases, the algorithms based on the natural gradient work significantly better. © 2011 ACM.