A model of driver steering control incorporating the driver's sensing of steering torque

Steering feel, or steering torque feedback, is widely regarded as an important aspect of the handling quality of a vehicle. Despite this, there is little theoretical understanding of its role. This paper describes an initial attempt to model the role of steering torque feedback arising from lateral tyre forces. The path-following control of a nonlinear vehicle model is implemented using a time-varying model predictive controller. A series of Kalman filters are used to represent the driver's ability to generate estimates of the system states from noisy sensory measurements, including the steering torque. It is found that under constant road friction conditions, the steering torque feedback reduces path-following errors provided the friction is sufficiently high to prevent frequent saturation of the tyres. When the driver model is extended to allow identification of, and adaptation to, a varying friction condition, it is found that the steering torque assists in the accurate identification of the friction condition. The simulation results give insight into the role of steering torque feedback arising from lateral tyre forces. The paper concludes with recommendations for further work. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

A dependent partition-valued process for multitask clustering and time evolving network modelling

The fundamental aim of clustering algorithms is to partition data points. We consider tasks where the discovered partition is allowed to vary with some covariate such as space or time. One approach would be to use fragmentation-coagulation processes, but these, being Markov processes, are restricted to linear or tree structured covariate spaces. We define a partition-valued process on an arbitrary covariate space using Gaussian processes. We use the process to construct a multitask clustering model which partitions datapoints in a similar way across multiple data sources, and a time series model of network data which allows cluster assignments to vary over time. We describe sampling algorithms for inference and apply our method to defining cancer subtypes based on different types of cellular characteristics, finding regulatory modules from gene expression data from multiple human populations, and discovering time varying community structure in a social network.

Preliminary model development for predicting strength and stiffness of cement-stabilized soils using artificial neural networks

This paper presents ongoing work on data collection and collation from a large number of laboratory cement-stabilization projects worldwide. The aim is to employ Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to establish relationships between variables, which define the properties of cement-stabilized soils, and the two parameters determined by the Unconfined Compression Test, the Unconfined Compressive Strength (UCS), and stiffness, using E50 calculated from UCS results. Bayesian predictive neural network models are developed to predict the UCS values of cement-stabilized inorganic clays/silts, as well as sands as a function of selected soil mix variables, such as grain size distribution, water content, cement content and curing time. A model which can predict the stiffness values of cement-stabilized clays/silts is also developed and compared to the UCS model. The UCS model results emulate known trends better and provide more accurate estimates than the results from the E50 stiffness model. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Multispacecraft refueling optimization considering the J2 perturbation and window constraints

The optimization of a near-circular low-Earth-orbit multispacecraft refueling problem is studied. The refueling sequence, service time, and orbital transfer time are used as design variables, whereas the mean mission completion time and mean propellant consumed by orbital maneuvers are used as design objectives. The J2 term of the Earth's nonspherical gravity perturbation and the constraints of rendezvous time windows are taken into account. A hybridencoding genetic algorithm, which uses normal fitness assignment to find the minimum mean propellant-cost solution and fitness assignment based on the concept of Pareto-optimality to find multi-objective optimal solutions, is presented. The proposed approach is demonstrated for a typical multispacecraft refueling problem. The results show that the proposed approach is effective, and that the J2 perturbation and the time-window constraints have considerable influences on the optimization results. For the problems in which the J2 perturbation is not accounted for, the optimal refueling order can be simply determined as a sequential order or as the order only based on orbitalplane differences. In contrast, for the problems that do consider the J2 perturbation, the optimal solutions obtained have a variety of refueling orders and use the drift of nodes effectively to reduce the propellant cost for eliminating orbital-plane differences. © 2013 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.

MoT - Mixture of trees probabilistic graphical model for video segmentation

We present a novel mixture of trees (MoT) graphical model for video segmentation. Each component in this mixture represents a tree structured temporal linkage between super-pixels from the first to the last frame of a video sequence. Our time-series model explicitly captures the uncertainty in temporal linkage between adjacent frames which improves segmentation accuracy. We provide a variational inference scheme for this model to estimate super-pixel labels and their confidences in nearly realtime. The efficacy of our approach is demonstrated via quantitative comparisons on the challenging SegTrack joint segmentation and tracking dataset [23].

Copula Processes

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard deviations of a sequence of random variables. To make predictions we use Bayesian inference, with the Laplace approximation, and with Markov chain Monte Carlo as an alternative. We find both methods comparable. We also find our model can outperform GARCH on simulated and financial data. And unlike GARCH, GCPV can easily handle missing data, incorporate covariates other than time, and model a rich class of covariance structures.

Intermittency transport modeling of separated flow transition

An intermittency transport model is proposed for modeling separated-flow transition. The model is based on earlier work on prediction of attached flow bypass transition and is applied for the first time to model transition in a separation bubble at various degrees of free-stream turbulence. The model has been developed so that it takes into account the entrainment of the surrounding fluid. Experimental investigations suggest that it is this phenomena which ultimately determines the extent of the separation bubble. Transition onset is determined via a boundary layer correlation based on momentum thickness at the point of separation. The intermittent flow characteristic of the transition process is modeled via an intermittency transport equation. This accounts for both normal and streamwise variation of intermittency and hence models the entrainment of surrounding flow in a more accurate manner than alternative prescribed intermittency models. The model has been validated against the well established T3L semicircular leading edge flat plate test case for three different degrees of free-stream turbulence characteristic of turbomachinery blade applications.

Gaussian process change point models

We combine Bayesian online change point detection with Gaussian processes to create a nonparametric time series model which can handle change points. The model can be used to locate change points in an online manner; and, unlike other Bayesian online change point detection algorithms, is applicable when temporal correlations in a regime are expected. We show three variations on how to apply Gaussian processes in the change point context, each with their own advantages. We present methods to reduce the computational burden of these models and demonstrate it on several real world data sets. Copyright 2010 by the author(s)/owner(s).

Statistical gear health analysis which is robust to fluctuating loads and operating speeds

Condition-based maintenance is concerned with the collection and interpretation of data to support maintenance decisions. The non-intrusive nature of vibration data enables the monitoring of enclosed systems such as gearboxes. It remains a significant challenge to analyze vibration data that are generated under fluctuating operating conditions. This is especially true for situations where relatively little prior knowledge regarding the specific gearbox is available. It is therefore investigated how an adaptive time series model, which is based on Bayesian model selection, may be used to remove the non-fault related components in the structural response of a gear assembly to obtain a residual signal which is robust to fluctuating operating conditions. A statistical framework is subsequently proposed which may be used to interpret the structure of the residual signal in order to facilitate an intuitive understanding of the condition of the gear system. The proposed methodology is investigated on both simulated and experimental data from a single stage gearbox. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kick synchronization versus diffusive synchronization

The paper provides an introductory discussion about two fundamental models of oscillator synchronization: the (continuous-time) diffusive model, that dominates the mathematical literature on synchronization, and the (hybrid) kick model, that accounts for most popular examples of synchronization, but for which only few theoretical results exist. The paper stresses fundamental differences between the two models, such as the different contraction measures underlying the analysis, as well as important analogies that can be drawn in the limit of weak coupling. © 2012 IEEE.

Modified Kanerva model. Results for real time word recognition

This paper describes results obtained using the modified Kanerva model to perform word recognition in continuous speech after being trained on the multi-speaker Alvey 'Hotel' speech corpus. Theoretical discoveries have recently enabled us to increase the speed of execution of part of the model by two orders of magnitude over that previously reported by Prager & Fallside. The memory required for the operation of the model has been similarly reduced. The recognition accuracy reaches 95% without syntactic constraints when tested on different data from seven trained speakers. Real time simulation of a model with 9,734 active units is now possible in both training and recognition modes using the Alvey PARSIFAL transputer array. The modified Kanerva model is a static network consisting of a fixed nonlinear mapping (location matching) followed by a single layer of conventional adaptive links. A section of preprocessed speech is transformed by the non-linear mapping to a high dimensional representation. From this intermediate representation a simple linear mapping is able to perform complex pattern discrimination to form the output, indicating the nature of the speech features present in the input window.

Bayesian model selection for time series using Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present a stochastic simulation technique for subset selection in time series models, based on the use of indicator variables with the Gibbs sampler within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. As an example, the method is applied to the selection of subset linear AR models, in which only significant lags are included. Joint sampling of the indicators and parameters is found to speed convergence. We discuss the possibility of model mixing where the model is not well determined by the data, and the extension of the approach to include non-linear model terms.