Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability

We quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to support energy policy. Empirical review shows that early adopters are heterogeneous motivated by financial benefits, environmental appeal, new technology, and vehicle reliability. A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters. For early adopters full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are competitive but unable to surpass diesels or hybrids due to purchase price premium and lack of charging availability. For mass adoption, simulations indicate that if the purchase price premium of a BEV closes to within 20% of an in-class internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, combined with a 60% increase in refuelling availability relative to the incumbent system, BEVs become competitive. But this depends on a mass market that values the fuel economy and CO2 reduction benefits associated with BEVs. We also find that the largest influence on early adoption is financial benefit rather than pro-environmental behaviour suggesting that AFVs should be marketed by appealing to economic benefits combined with pro-environmental behaviour to motivate adoption. Monte Carlo simulations combined with scenarios can give insight into diffusion dynamics for other energy demand-side technologies. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Steering manufacturing firms towards service business model innovation

Increasingly, manufacturing firms are turning to services as a new way of creating and capturing value. Despite its potential benefits, many new product-service providers struggle to deploy service activities effectively, not least because they fail to refect the presence of service activities in their performance management systems. This article reports the results of an in-depth case study, which examines how manufacturers can steer the transition towards services. It shows that manufacturing firms need to emphasize two separate but related dimensions of the market performance of service activities: "service adoption," refecting the proportion of customers who purchase the manufacturer's services; and "service coverage," signaling the range of service elements or the comprehensiveness of the service contract that customers opt for. These two indicators, refecting service market performance, should be supplemented with a "complementarity index" designed to disclose whether the relationship between products and services is reinforcing or substitutive. When combined, these indicators allow manufacturing firms to deploy a service-based business model in an integrated and sustainable manner. © 2013 by The Regents of the University of California. All rights reserved.