Rebuilding the limit order book: Sequential Bayesian inference on hidden states

The limit order book of an exchange represents an information store of market participants' future aims and for many traders the information held in this store is of interest. However, information loss occurs between orders being entered into the exchange and limit order book data being sent out. We present an online algorithm which carries out Bayesian inference to replace information lost at the level of the exchange server and apply our proof of concept algorithm to real historical data from some of the world's most liquid futures contracts as traded on CME GLOBEX, EUREX and NYSE Liffe exchanges. © 2013 © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

Tractable nonparametric bayesian inference in poisson processes with Gaussian process intensities

The inhomogeneous Poisson process is a point process that has varying intensity across its domain (usually time or space). For nonparametric Bayesian modeling, the Gaussian process is a useful way to place a prior distribution on this intensity. The combination of a Poisson process and GP is known as a Gaussian Cox process, or doubly-stochastic Poisson process. Likelihood-based inference in these models requires an intractable integral over an infinite-dimensional random function. In this paper we present the first approach to Gaussian Cox processes in which it is possible to perform inference without introducing approximations or finitedimensional proxy distributions. We call our method the Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process, which uses a generative model for Poisson data to enable tractable inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We compare our methods to competing methods on synthetic data and apply it to several real-world data sets. Copyright 2009.

Tractable nonparametric Bayesian inference in Poisson processes with Gaussian process intensities

The inhomogeneous Poisson process is a point process that has varying intensity across its domain (usually time or space). For nonparametric Bayesian modeling, the Gaussian process is a useful way to place a prior distribution on this intensity. The combination of a Poisson process and GP is known as a Gaussian Cox process, or doubly-stochastic Poisson process. Likelihood-based inference in these models requires an intractable integral over an infinite-dimensional random function. In this paper we present the first approach to Gaussian Cox processes in which it is possible to perform inference without introducing approximations or finite-dimensional proxy distributions. We call our method the Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process, which uses a generative model for Poisson data to enable tractable inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We compare our methods to competing methods on synthetic data and apply it to several real-world data sets.

Bayesian inference for multidimensional NMR image reconstruction

Reconstruction of an image from a set of projections has been adapted to generate multidimensional nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra, which have discrete features that are relatively sparsely distributed in space. For this reason, a reliable reconstruction can be made from a small number of projections. This new concept is called Projection Reconstruction NMR (PR-NMR). In this paper, multidimensional NMR spectra are reconstructed by Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). This statistical method generates samples under the assumption that each peak consists of a small number of parameters: position of peak centres, peak amplitude, and peak width. In order to find the number of peaks and shape, RJMCMC has several moves: birth, death, merge, split, and invariant updating. The reconstruction schemes are tested on a set of six projections derived from the three-dimensional 700 MHz HNCO spectrum of a protein HasA.