Going Multinational under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

Published as an article in: Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, vol. 29, issue 6, pages 1171-1191.

Economic Effects of Global Warming under Stock Growth Uncertainty: The European Sardine Fishery

Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimization problems to better understand of the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our results show that if the resource is exploited optimally then in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit.

On Bounded Strictly Positive Operators of Closed Range and Some Applications to Asymptotic Hyperstability of Dynamic Systems

The problem discussed is the stability of two input-output feedforward and feedback relations, under an integral-type constraint defining an admissible class of feedback controllers. Sufficiency-type conditions are given for the positive, bounded and of closed range feed-forward operator to be strictly positive and then boundedly invertible, with its existing inverse being also a strictly positive operator. The general formalism is first established and the linked to properties of some typical contractive and pseudocontractive mappings while some real-world applications and links of the above formalism to asymptotic hyperstability of dynamic systems are discussed later on.

Income Taxation and Growth in an OLG Economy: Does Aggregate Uncertainty Play any Role?

We analyze the effects of capital income taxation on long-run growth in a stochastic, two-period overlapping generations economy. Endogenous growth is driven by a positive externality of physical capital in the production sector that makes firms exhibit an aggregate technology in equilibrium. We distinguish between capital income and labor income, and between attitudes towards risk and intertemporal substitution of consumption. We show necessary and sufficient conditions such that i) increments in the capital income taxation lead to higher equilibrium growth rates, and ii) the effect of changes in the capital income tax rate on the equilibrium growth may be of opposite signs in stochastic and in deterministic economies. Such a sign reversal is shown to be more likely depending on i) how the intertemporal elasticity of substitution compares to one, and ii) the size of second- period labor supply. Numerical simulations show that for reasonable values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, a sign reversal shows up only for implausibly high values of the second- period’s labor supply. The conclusion is that deterministic OLG economies are a good approximation of the effect of taxes on the equilibrium growth rate as in Smith (1996).

On a Class of Self-Adjoint Compact Operators in Hilbert Spaces and Their Relations with Their Finite-Range Truncations

This paper investigates a class of self-adjoint compact operators in Hilbert spaces related to their truncated versions with finite-dimensional ranges. The comparisons are established in terms of worst-case norm errors of the composite operators generated from iterated computations. Some boundedness properties of the worst-case norms of the errors in their respective fixed points in which they exist are also given. The iterated sequences are expanded in separable Hilbert spaces through the use of numerable orthonormal bases.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Optimal Investment in Energy Efficiency under Uncertainty

41 p.

Valuation of wind energy projects: A real options approach

27 p.

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.

Ab initio study of anharmonicity in high pressure Cmca-4 metallic hydrogen

Hydrogen is the only atom for which the Schr odinger equation is solvable. Consisting only of a proton and an electron, hydrogen is the lightest element and, nevertheless, is far from being simple. Under ambient conditions, it forms diatomic molecules H2 in gas phase, but di erent temperature and pressures lead to a complex phase diagram, which is not completely known yet. Solid hydrogen was rst documented in 1899 [1] and was found to be isolating. At higher pressures, however, hydrogen can be metallized. In 1935 Wigner and Huntington predicted that the metallization pressure would be 25 GPa [2], where molecules would disociate to form a monoatomic metal, as alkali metals that lie below hydrogen in the periodic table. The prediction of the metallization pressure turned out to be wrong: metallic hydrogen has not been found yet, even under a pressure as high as 320 GPa. Nevertheless, extrapolations based on optical measurements suggest that a metallic phase may be attained at 450 GPa [3]. The interest of material scientist in metallic hydrogen can be attributed, at least to a great extent, to Ashcroft, who in 1968 suggested that such a system could be a hightemperature superconductor [4]. The temperature at which this material would exhibit a transition from a superconducting to a non-superconducting state (Tc) was estimated to be around room temperature. The implications of such a statement are very interesting in the eld of astrophysics: in planets that contain a big quantity of hydrogen and whose temperature is below Tc, superconducting hydrogen may be found, specially at the center, where the gravitational pressure is high. This might be the case of Jupiter, whose proportion of hydrogen is about 90%. There are also speculations suggesting that the high magnetic eld of Jupiter is due to persistent currents related to the superconducting phase [5]. Metallization and superconductivity of hydrogen has puzzled scientists for decades, and the community is trying to answer several questions. For instance, what is the structure of hydrogen at very high pressures? Or a more general one: what is the maximum Tc a phonon-mediated superconductor can have [6]? A great experimental e ort has been carried out pursuing metallic hydrogen and trying to answer the questions above; however, the characterization of solid phases of hydrogen is a hard task. Achieving the high pressures needed to get the sought phases requires advanced technologies. Diamond anvil cells (DAC) are commonly used devices. These devices consist of two diamonds with a tip of small area; for this reason, when a force is applied, the pressure exerted is very big. This pressure is uniaxial, but it can be turned into hydrostatic pressure using transmitting media. Nowadays, this method makes it possible to reach pressures higher than 300 GPa, but even at this pressure hydrogen does not show metallic properties. A recently developed technique that is an improvement of DAC can reach pressures as high as 600 GPa [7], so it is a promising step forward in high pressure physics. Another drawback is that the electronic density of the structures is so low that X-ray di raction patterns have low resolution. For these reasons, ab initio studies are an important source of knowledge in this eld, within their limitations. When treating hydrogen, there are many subtleties in the calculations: as the atoms are so light, the ions forming the crystalline lattice have signi cant displacements even when temperatures are very low, and even at T=0 K, due to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. Thus, the energy corresponding to this zero-point (ZP) motion is signi cant and has to be included in an accurate determination of the most stable phase. This has been done including ZP vibrational energies within the harmonic approximation for a range of pressures and at T=0 K, giving rise to a series of structures that are stable in their respective pressure ranges [8]. Very recently, a treatment of the phases of hydrogen that includes anharmonicity in ZP energies has suggested that relative stability of the phases may change with respect to the calculations within the harmonic approximation [9]. Many of the proposed structures for solid hydrogen have been investigated. Particularly, the Cmca-4 structure, which was found to be the stable one from 385-490 GPa [8], is metallic. Calculations for this structure, within the harmonic approximation for the ionic motion, predict a Tc up to 242 K at 450 GPa [10]. Nonetheless, due to the big ionic displacements, the harmonic approximation may not su ce to describe correctly the system. The aim of this work is to apply a recently developed method to treat anharmonicity, the stochastic self-consistent harmonic approximation (SSCHA) [11], to Cmca-4 metallic hydrogen. This way, we will be able to study the e ects of anharmonicity in the phonon spectrum and to try to understand the changes it may provoque in the value of Tc. The work is structured as follows. First we present the theoretical basis of the calculations: Density Functional Theory (DFT) for the electronic calculations, phonons in the harmonic approximation and the SSCHA. Then we apply these methods to Cmca-4 hydrogen and we discuss the results obtained. In the last chapter we draw some conclusions and propose possible future work.

Results on proximal and generalized weak proximal contractions including the case of iteration-dependent range sets

This paper presents some further results on proximal and asymptotic proximal contractions and on a class of generalized weak proximal contractions in metric spaces. The generalizations are stated for non-self-mappings of the forms for and , or , subject to and , such that converges uniformly to T, and the distances are iteration-dependent, where , , and are non-empty subsets of X, for , where is a metric space, provided that the set-theoretic limit of the sequences of closed sets and exist as and that the countable infinite unions of the closed sets are closed. The convergence of the sequences in the domain and the image sets of the non-self-mapping, as well as the existence and uniqueness of the best proximity points, are also investigated if the metric space is complete. Two application examples are also given, being concerned, respectively, with the solutions through pseudo-inverses of both compatible and incompatible linear algebraic systems and with the parametrical

Elements of Decision under Uncertainty with Applications

This work presents the basic elements for the analysis of decision under uncertainty: Expected Utility Theory and its citicisms and risk aversion and its measurement. The concepts of certainty equivalent, risk premium, absolute risk aversion and relative risk aversion, and the "more risk averse than" relation are discussed. The work is completed with several applications of decision making under uncertainty to different economic problems: investment in risky assets and portfolio selection, risk sharing, investment to reduce risk, insurance, taxes and income underreporting, deposit insurance and the value of information.

Spin squeezing, macrorealism and the heisenberg uncertainty principle

169 p.

The Carpathian range represents a weak genetic barrier in South-East Europe

Background: In the present study we have assessed whether the Carpathian Mountains represent a genetic barrier in East Europe. Therefore, we have analyzed the mtDNA of 128 native individuals of Romania: 62 of them from the North of Romania, and 66 from South Romania. Results: We have analyzed their mtDNA variability in the context of other European and Near Eastern populations through multivariate analyses. The results show that regarding the mtDNA haplogroup and haplotype distributions the Romanian groups living outside the Carpathian range (South Romania) displayed some degree of genetic differentiation compared to those living within the Carpahian range (North Romania). Conclusion: The main differentiation between the mtDNA variability of the groups from North and South Romania can be attributed to the demographic movements from East to West (prehistoric or historic) that differently affected in these regions, suggesting that the Carpathian mountain range represents a weak genetic barrier in South-East Europe.