Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Population age structure and private consumption in Spain

In this paper we study the effect of population age distribution upon private consumption expenditure in Spain from 1964 to 1997 using aggregate data. We obtain four main results. First, changes in the population pyramid have substantial effects upon the behaviour of private consumption. Second, the pattern of the coefficients of the demographic variables is not consistent with the simplest version of the life cycle hypothesis. Third, we estimate the impact of the demographic transition upon consumption and find positive values associated with episodes in which the shares of groups of individuals with expenditure levels higher (lower) than the mean increased (decreased). Fourth, the results are robust to alternative specifications for the population age distribution.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

The Cryo-EM Structure of a Complete 30S Translation Initiation Complex from Escherichia coli

11 p.

Structural Basis for Feed-Forward Transcriptional Regulation of Membrane Lipid Homeostasis in Staphylococcus aureus

11 p.

Phosphorylation of the carboxy-terminal domain of histone H1: effects on secondary structure and DNA condensation

Linker histone H1 plays an important role in chromatin folding. Phosphorylation by cyclin-dependent kinases is the main post-translational modification of histone H1. We studied the effects of phosphorylation on the secondary structure of the DNA-bound H1 carboxy-terminal domain (CTD), which contains most of the phosphorylation sites of the molecule. The effects of phosphorylation on the secondary structure of the DNA-bound CTD were site-specific and depended on the number of phosphate groups. Full phosphorylation significantly increased the proportion of -structure and decreased that of -helix. Partial phosphorylation increased the amount of undefined structure and decreased that of -helix without a significant increase in -structure. Phosphorylation had a moderate effect on the affinity of the CTD for the DNA, which was proportional to the number of phosphate groups. Partial phosphorylation drastically reduced the aggregation of DNA fragments by the CTD, but full phosphorylation restored to a large extent the aggregation capacity of the unphosphorylated domain. These results support the involvement of H1 hyperphosphorylation in metaphase chromatin condensation and of H1 partial phosphorylation in interphase chromatin relaxation. More generally, our results suggest that the effects of phosphorylation are mediated by specific structural changes and are not simply a consequence of the net charge.

Combination of web usage, content and structure information for diverse web mining applications in the tourism context and the context of users with disabilities

188 p.