22 resultados para monetary
Resumo:
This paper uses a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the new Keynesian monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure using both revised and real-time data. The estimation results show that the term spread and policy inertia are both important determinants of the U.S. estimated monetary policy rule whereas the persistence of shocks plays a small but significant role when revised and real-time data of output and inflation are both considered. More importantly, the relative importance of term spread and persistent shocks in the policy rule and the shock transmission mechanism drastically change when it is taken into account that real-time data are not well behaved.
Resumo:
Published as an article in: Economic Modelling, 2011, vol. 28, issue 3, pages 1140-1149.
Resumo:
Published as article in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008), 32(May), pp. 1466-1488.
Resumo:
This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model under alternative specifications of the monetary policy rule using U.S. and Eurozone data. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical method based on the indirect inference principle. An unrestricted VAR is considered as the auxiliary model. On the one hand, the estimation method proposed overcomes some of the shortcomings of using a structural VAR as the auxiliary model in order to identify the impulse response that defines the minimum distance estimator implemented in the literature. On the other hand, by following a classical approach we can further assess the estimation results found in recent papers that follow a maximum-likelihood Bayesian approach. The estimation results show that some structural parameter estimates are quite sensitive to the specification of monetary policy. Moreover, the estimation results in the U.S. show that the fit of the NKM under an optimal monetary plan is much worse than the fit of the NKM model assuming a forward-looking Taylor rule. In contrast to the U.S. case, in the Eurozone the best fit is obtained assuming a backward-looking Taylor rule, but the improvement is rather small with respect to assuming either a forward-looking Taylor rule or an optimal plan.
Resumo:
This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with financial variables in order to analyze the relative importance of stock market returns and term spread in the estimated U.S. monetary policy rule. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. The empirical results show that the Fed seems to respond to the macroeconomic outlook and to the stock market return but does not seem to respond to the term spread. Moreover, policy inertia and persistent policy shocks are also significant features of the estimated policy rule.
Resumo:
Published as an article in: Spanish Economic Review, 2008, vol. 10, issue 4, pages 251-277.
The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.
Resumo:
This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.
Resumo:
This paper considers a time varying parameter extension of the Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) model to explore whether some of the variation in parameter estimates seen in the literature could arise from this source. A time varying value for the unemployment volatility parameter can be motivated through several means including variation in the slope of the Phillips curve or variation in the preferences of the monetary authority.We show that allowing time variation for the coefficient on the unemployment volatility parameter improves the model fit and it helps to provide an explanation of inflation bias based on asymmetric central banker preferences, which is consistent across subsamples.
Resumo:
Using a model of an optimizing monetary authority which has preferences that weigh inflation and unemployment, Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) finds empirical evidence that the authority has asymmetric preferences for unemployment. We extend this model to weigh inflation and output and show that the empirical evidence using these series also supports an asymmetric preference hypothesis, only in our case, preferences are asymmetric for output. We also find evidence that the monetary authority targets potential output rather than some higher output level as would be the case in an extended Barro and Gordon (1983) model.
Resumo:
This academic work is based on the study of the gold standard, its evolution over the years, their periods of boom and crisis. We will also discuss the arguments that some economists back the return to this monetary system.
Resumo:
This paper was presented at the 11th Annual Conference of the European Society for the History of Economic Thought (ESHET).
Resumo:
Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.
Resumo:
This paper analyzes the existence of an inflation tax Laffer curve (ITLC) in the context of two standard optimizing monetary models: a cash-in-advance model and a money in the utility function model. Agents’ preferences are characterized in the two models by a constant relative risk aversion utility function. Explosive hyperinflation rules out the presence of an ITLC. In the context of a cash-in-advance economy, this paper shows that explosive hyperinflation is feasible and thus an ITLC is ruled out whenever the relative risk aversion parameter is greater than one. In the context of an optimizing model with money in the utility function, this paper firstly shows that an ITLC is ruled out. Moreover, it is shown that explosive hyperinflations are more likely when the transactions role of money is more important. However, hyperinflationary paths are not feasible in this context unless certain restrictions are imposed.
Resumo:
Published as an article in: Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, vol. 50, issue 6, pages 1311-1331.
Resumo:
[ES] Este trabajo presenta la problemática de la gestión del riesgo operativo en las entidades de crédito en el ámbito europeo. Aprobado el texto definitivo del denominado Comité de Supervisión Bancaria (Basilea II), con especial y novedosa regulación del riesgo operativo, amanece como inminente su integración e la regulación bancaria de la UE, y, por tanto, su pronta implantación y supervisión por las autoridades monetarias y financieras. Esta nueva normativa, de carácter flexible y profesional, introduce en el seno del gobierno corporativo de las entidades de crédito nuevos elementos que afectarán a su cultura interna (cultura de gestión de los riesgos), afectando a las decisiones estratégicas y a la organización de las entidades, incentivando a la mejora de la calidad de sus procesos, servicios y operaciones. Todo lo cual supone una acicate para perseguir la eficiencia continua a nivel individual y a nivel del sistema financiero, con visos de adquirir dimensión estratégica. De esta manera, se abre un espacio para la investigación y creatividad en la aplicación y desarrollo de los postulados científicos de la Economía de la Empresa, con posibilidades de incorporarlos a otros sectores empresariales de similar afectación por los riesgos operativos.