Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Human Endogenous Retrovirus HERV-Fc1 Association with Multiple Sclerosis Susceptibility: A Meta-Analysis

Background: Human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs) are repetitive sequences derived from ancestral germ-line infections by exogenous retroviruses and different HERV families have been integrated in the genome. HERV-Fc1 in chromosome X has been previously associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) in Northern European populations. Additionally, HERV-Fc1 RNA levels of expression have been found increased in plasma of MS patients with active disease. Considering the North-South latitude gradient in MS prevalence, we aimed to evaluate the role of HERV-Fc1on MS risk in three independent Spanish cohorts. Methods: A single nucleotide polymorphism near HERV-Fc1, rs391745, was genotyped by Taqman chemistry in a total of 2473 MS patients and 3031 ethnically matched controls, consecutively recruited from: Northern (569 patients and 980 controls), Central (883 patients and 692 controls) and Southern (1021 patients and 1359 controls) Spain. Our results were pooled in a meta-analysis with previously published data. Results: Significant associations of the HERV-Fc1 polymorphism with MS were observed in two Spanish cohorts and the combined meta-analysis with previous data yielded a significant association [rs391745 C-allele carriers: p(M-H) = 0.0005; ORM-H (95% CI) = 1.27 (1.11-1.45)]. Concordantly to previous findings, when the analysis was restricted to relapsing remitting and secondary progressive MS samples, a slight enhancement in the strength of the association was observed [p(M-H) = 0.0003, ORM-H (95% CI) = 1.32 (1.14-1.53)]. Conclusion: Association of the HERV-Fc1 polymorphism rs391745 with bout-onset MS susceptibility was confirmed in Southern European cohorts.