Pseudospectral methods and numerical continuation for the analysis os structured population models.

191 p.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Income tax progressivity, growth, income inequality and welfare

This paper analyzes the effects of personal income tax progressivity on long-run economic growth, income inequality and social welfare. The quantitative implications of income tax progressivity increments are illustrated for the US economy under three main headings: individual effects (reduced labor supply and savings, and increased dispersion of tax rates); aggregate effects (lower GDP growth and lower income inequality); and welfare effects (lower dispersion of consumption across individuals and higher leisure levels, but also lower growth of future consumption). The social discount factor proves to be crucial for this third effect: a higher valuation of future generations' well-being requires a lower level of progressivity. Additionally, if tax revenues are used to provide a public good rather than just being discarded, a higher private valuation of such public goods will also call for a lower level of progressivity.

Igualdad de sacrificio: una aplicación para el IRPF español

Es bien sabido que el Impuesto sobre la Renta de las Personas Físicas (IRPF) es un impuesto progresivo (aumenta la proporción a pagar cuando aumenta la renta). Aun así es importante saber si el esfuerzo o la pérdida de utilidad que asume cada individuo en el pago del impuesto es el mismo, es decir, si se cumple el principio de igualdad de sacrificio. En este trabajo se plantea si el impuesto sobre la renta en España cumplió este principio en los años 2006 y 2007, y si la reforma fiscal que hubo en estos años nos acercó o alejó de su cumplimiento. La respuesta es que, en líneas generales, sí se cumple, suponiendo esta reforma una mejora relevante para la consecución de este objetivo.

Analysis and evaluation of public health policy in Cuba : progress on millennium development goals

[EN] The main objective of this project is to analyze Cuban public health policy and the Millennium Development Goals, especially those linked to the issue of health, presenting their potential and strengths with a well-defined time horizon (2000-2015). The Millennium Development Goals are the international consensus on development and was signed as an international minimum agreement, with which began the century. The MDGs promote various goals and targets, with the corresponding monitoring indicators, which should be achieved by all countries for the present year. Health is an area that is at the center of the Millennium Development Goals, which reinforce each other to get a true human development itself. The research was done through theoretical frameworks of social production of health and disease, social justice and the power structure. A retrospective analysis of Cuban economic and social context is performed in order to study whether health-related MDGs are likely to be completed by the deadline on the island and likewise, the main parameters related to health compared with those of the neighboring countries in the Americas.

Behavioral profile of adults with Prader-Willi syndrome : correlations with individual and environmental variables

Background: Maladaptive behavior has been reported as a phenotypical feature in Prader–Willi syndrome (PWS). It severely limits social adaptation and the quality of life of children and adults with the syndrome. Different factors have been linked with the intensity and form of these behavioral disturbances but there is no consensus about the cause. Consequently, there is still controversy regarding management strategies and there is a need for new data. Methods: The behavior of 100 adults with PWS attending a dedicated center was assessed using the Developmental Behavior Checklist for Adults (DBC-A) and the PWS-specific Hyperphagia Questionnaire. The DBC-A was completed separately by trained caregivers at the center and relatives or caregivers in a natural setting. Genotype, gender, age, degree of obesity and cognitive impairment were analyzed as variables with a hypothetical influence on behavioral features. Results: Patients showed a relatively high rate of behavioral disturbances other than hyperphagia. Disruptive and social relating were the highest scoring DBC-A subscales whereas anxiety/antisocial and self-absorbed were the lowest. When hospital caregiver and natural caregiver scores were compared, scores for the latter were higher for all subscales except for disruptive and anxiety/antisocial. These effects of institutional management were underlined. In the DBC-A, 22 items have descriptive indications of PWS behavior and were used for further comparisons and correlation analysis. In contrast to previous reports, rates of disturbed behavior were lower in patients with a deletion genotype. However, the behavioral profile was similar for both genotypes. No differences were found in any measurement when comparing type I and type II deletions. The other analyzed variables showed little relevance. Conclusions: Significant rates of behavioral disorders were highlighted and their typology described in a large cohort of adults with PWS. The deletion genotype was related to a lower severity of symptoms. Some major behavioral problems, such as hyperphagia, may be well controlled if living circumstances are adapted to the specific requirements of individuals with PWS.

Variability in the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales within the south-eastern Bay of Biscay, as observed by HF radar data

Two high-frequency (HF) radar stations were installed on the coast of the south-eastern Bay of Biscay in 2009, providing high spatial and temporal resolution and large spatial coverage of currents in the area for the first time. This has made it possible to quantitatively assess the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales for the period 2009-2010. The analysis was conducted using the Barnett-Preisendorfer approach to canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of reanalysis surface winds and HF radar-derived surface currents. The CCA yields two canonical patterns: the first wind-current interaction pattern corresponds to the classical Ekman drift at the sea surface, whilst the second describes an anticyclonic/cyclonic surface circulation. The results obtained demonstrate that local winds play an important role in driving the upper water circulation. The wind-current interaction timescales are mainly related to diurnal breezes and synoptic variability. In particular, the breezes force diurnal currents in waters of the continental shelf and slope of the south-eastern Bay. It is concluded that the breezes may force diurnal currents over considerably wider areas than that covered by the HF radar, considering that the northern and southern continental shelves of the Bay exhibit stronger diurnal than annual wind amplitudes.

Structural Integrity of the Contralesional Hemisphere Predicts Cognitive Impairment in Ischemic Stroke at Three Months

After stroke, white matter integrity can be affected both locally and distally to the primary lesion location. It has been shown that tract disruption in mirror's regions of the contralateral hemisphere is associated with degree of functional impairment. Fourteen patients suffering right hemispheric focal stroke (S) and eighteen healthy controls (HC) underwent Diffusion Weighted Imaging (DWI) and neuropsychological assessment. The stroke patient group was divided into poor (SP; n = 8) and good (SG; n = 6) cognitive recovery groups according to their cognitive improvement from the acute phase (72 hours after stroke) to the subacute phase (3 months post-stroke). Whole-brain DWI data analysis was performed by computing Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) followed by Tract Based Spatial Statistics (TBSS). Assessment of effects was obtained computing the correlation of the projections on TBSS skeleton of Fractional Anisotropy (FA) and Radial Diffusivity (RD) with cognitive test results. Significant decrease of FA was found only in right brain anatomical areas for the S group when compared to the HC group. Analyzed separately, stroke patients with poor cognitive recovery showed additional significant FA decrease in several left hemisphere regions; whereas SG patients showed significant decrease only in the left genu of corpus callosum when compared to the HC. For the SG group, whole brain analysis revealed significant correlation between the performance in the Semantic Fluency test and the FA in the right hemisphere as well as between the performance in the Grooved Pegboard Test (GPT) and theTrail Making Test-part A and the FA in the left hemisphere. For the SP group, correlation analysis revealed significant correlation between the performance in the GPT and the FA in the right hemisphere. Palabras clave

Identifying social determinants of urban low carbon transitions: the case of energy transition in Bilbao, Basque Country

33 p.

Structural Integrity of the Contralesional Hemisphere Predicts Cognitive Impairment in Ischemic Stroke at Three Months

After stroke, white matter integrity can be affected both locally and distally to the primary lesion location. It has been shown that tract disruption in mirror's regions of the contralateral hemisphere is associated with degree of functional impairment. Fourteen patients suffering right hemispheric focal stroke (S) and eighteen healthy controls (HC) underwent Diffusion Weighted Imaging (DWI) and neuropsychological assessment. The stroke patient group was divided into poor (SP; n = 8) and good (SG; n = 6) cognitive recovery groups according to their cognitive improvement from the acute phase (72 hours after stroke) to the subacute phase (3 months post-stroke). Whole-brain DWI data analysis was performed by computing Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) followed by Tract Based Spatial Statistics (TBSS). Assessment of effects was obtained computing the correlation of the projections on TBSS skeleton of Fractional Anisotropy (FA) and Radial Diffusivity (RD) with cognitive test results. Significant decrease of FA was found only in right brain anatomical areas for the S group when compared to the HC group. Analyzed separately, stroke patients with poor cognitive recovery showed additional significant FA decrease in several left hemisphere regions; whereas SG patients showed significant decrease only in the left genu of corpus callosum when compared to the HC. For the SG group, whole brain analysis revealed significant correlation between the performance in the Semantic Fluency test and the FA in the right hemisphere as well as between the performance in the Grooved Pegboard Test (GPT) and theTrail Making Test-part A and the FA in the left hemisphere. For the SP group, correlation analysis revealed significant correlation between the performance in the GPT and the FA in the right hemisphere.