The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

A predictive model of the export behaviour of small and medium sized firms: an application to the case of Castilla-La Mancha

[EN] Based on an extensive theoretical review, the aim of this paper is to carry out a closer examination of the differences between exporters according to their commitment to the international market. Once the main disparities are identified by means of a non-parametric test, a logistic analysis based upon data collected from small and medium sized manufacturing firms is conducted in order to construct a classificatory model.

Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Temperature-and pH-Sensitive Nanohydrogels of Poly(N-Isopropylacrylamide) for Food Packaging Applications: Modelling the Swelling-Collapse Behaviour

Temperature-sensitive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPA) nanohydrogels were synthesized by nanoemulsion polymerization in water-in-oil systems. Several cross-linking degrees and the incorporation of acrylic acid as comonomer at different concentrations were tested to produce nanohydrogels with a wide range of properties. The physicochemical properties of PNIPA nanohydrogels, and their relationship with the swelling-collapse behaviour, were studied to evaluate the suitability of PNIPA nanoparticles as smart delivery systems (for active packaging). The swelling-collapse transition was analyzed by the change in the optical properties of PNIPA nanohydrogels using ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy. The thermodynamic parameters associated with the nanohydrogels collapse were calculated using a mathematical approach based on the van't Hoff analysis, assuming a two-state equilibrium (swollen to collapsed). A mathematical model is proposed to predict both the thermally induced collapse, and the collapse induced by the simultaneous action of two factors (temperature and pH, or temperature and organic solvent concentration). Finally, van't Hoff analysis was compared with differential scanning calorimetry. The results obtained allow us to solve the problem of determining the molecular weight of the structural repeating unit in cross-linked NIPA polymers, which, as we show, can be estimated from the ratio of the molar heat capacity (obtained from the van't Hoff analysis) to the specific heat capacity (obtained from calorimetric measurements).

Advances towards behaviour-based indoor robotic exploration

215 p.