6 resultados para errors-in-variables model
Resumo:
In recent decades, numerous studies have shown a significant increase in violence during childhood and adolescence. These data suggest the importance of implementing programs to prevent and reduce violent behavior. The study aimed to design a program of emotional intelligence (El) for adolescents and to assess its effects on variables related to violence prevention. The possible differential effect of the program on both genders was also examined. The sample comprised 148 adolescents aged from 13 to 16 years. The study used an experimental design with repeated pretest-posttest measures and control groups. To measure the variables, four assessment instruments were administered before and after the program, as well as in the follow-up phase (1 year after the conclusion of the intervention). The program consisted of 20 one-hour sessions. The pretest-posttest ANCOVAs showed that the program significantly increased: (1) El (attention, clarity, emotional repair); (2) assertive cognitive social interaction strategies; (3) internal control of anger; and (4) the cognitive ability to analyze negative feelings. In the follow-up phase, the positive effects of the intervention were generally maintained and, moreover, the use of aggressive strategies as an interpersonal conflict-resolution technique was significantly reduced. Regarding the effect of the program on both genders, the change was very similar, but the boys increased assertive social interaction strategies, attention, and emotional clarity significantly more than the girls. The importance of implementing programs to promote socio-emotional development and prevent violence is discussed.
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158 p.
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This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.
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Methods for generating a new population are a fundamental component of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs). They serve to transfer the information contained in the probabilistic model to the new generated population. In EDAs based on Markov networks, methods for generating new populations usually discard information contained in the model to gain in efficiency. Other methods like Gibbs sampling use information about all interactions in the model but are computationally very costly. In this paper we propose new methods for generating new solutions in EDAs based on Markov networks. We introduce approaches based on inference methods for computing the most probable configurations and model-based template recombination. We show that the application of different variants of inference methods can increase the EDAs’ convergence rate and reduce the number of function evaluations needed to find the optimum of binary and non-binary discrete functions.
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During the last two decades, analysis of 1/f noise in cognitive science has led to a considerable progress in the way we understand the organization of our mental life. However, there is still a lack of specific models providing explanations of how 1/f noise is generated in coupled brain-body-environment systems, since existing models and experiments typically target either externally observable behaviour or isolated neuronal systems but do not address the interplay between neuronal mechanisms and sensorimotor dynamics. We present a conceptual model of a minimal neurorobotic agent solving a behavioural task that makes it possible to relate mechanistic (neurodynamic) and behavioural levels of description. The model consists of a simulated robot controlled by a network of Kuramoto oscillators with homeostatic plasticity and the ability to develop behavioural preferences mediated by sensorimotor patterns. With only three oscillators, this simple model displays self-organized criticality in the form of robust 1/f noise and a wide multifractal spectrum. We show that the emergence of self-organized criticality and 1/f noise in our model is the result of three simultaneous conditions: a) non-linear interaction dynamics capable of generating stable collective patterns, b) internal plastic mechanisms modulating the sensorimotor flows, and c) strong sensorimotor coupling with the environment that induces transient metastable neurodynamic regimes. We carry out a number of experiments to show that both synaptic plasticity and strong sensorimotor coupling play a necessary role, as constituents of self-organized criticality, in the generation of 1/f noise. The experiments also shown to be useful to test the robustness of 1/f scaling comparing the results of different techniques. We finally discuss the role of conceptual models as mediators between nomothetic and mechanistic models and how they can inform future experimental research where self-organized critically includes sensorimotor coupling among the essential interaction-dominant process giving rise to 1/f noise.
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Background: An accumulating body of evidence points to the significance of neuroinflammation and immunogenetics in schizophrenia, and an imbalance of cytokines in the central nervous system (CNS) has been suggested to be associated with the disorder. Munc18-overexpressing mice (Munc18-OE) have provided a model for the study of the alterations that may underlie the symptoms of subjects with schizophrenia. The aim of the present study was to elucidate the involvement of neuroinflammation and cytokine imbalance in this model. Methods: Cytokines were evaluated in the cortex and the striatum of Munc18-OE and wild-type (WT) mice by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Protein levels of specific microglia and macrophage, astrocytic and neuroinflammation markers were quantified by western blot in the cortex and the striatum of Munc18-OE and WT mice. Results: Each cytokine evaluated (Interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), Interleukin-2 (IL-2) and CCL2 chemokine) was present at higher levels in the striatum of Munc18-OE mice than WT. Cortical TNF-alpha and IL-2 levels were significantly lower in Munc18-OE mice than WT mice. The microglia and macrophage marker CD11b was lower in the cortexes of Munc18-OE mice than WT, but no differences were observed in the striatum. Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein (GFAP) and Nuclear Factor-kappaB (NF-kappa B)p65 levels were not different between the groups. Interleukin-1beta (IL-1 beta) and IL-6 levels were beneath detection limits. Conclusions: The disrupted levels of cytokines detected in the brain of Munc18-OE mice was found to be similar to clinical reports and endorses study of this type for analysis of this aspect of the disorder. The lower CD11b expression in the cortex but not in the striatum of the Munc18-OE mice may reflect differences in physiological activity. The cytokine expression pattern observed in Munc18-OE mice is similar to a previously published model of schizophrenia caused by maternal immune activation. Together, these data suggest a possible role for an immune imbalance in this disorder.