Cyclical Features of Uzawa-Lucas Endogenous Growth Model

This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of a generalized version of Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model. We study the dynamic features of different cyclical components of this model characterized by a variety of decomposition methods. The decomposition methods considered can be classified in two groups. On the one hand, we consider three statistical filters: the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and Gonzalo-Granger decomposition. On the other hand, we use four model-based decomposition methods. The latter decomposition procedures share the property that the cyclical components obtained by these methods preserve the log-linear approximation of the Euler-equation restrictions imposed by the agent’s intertemporal optimization problem. The paper shows that both model dynamics and model performance substantially vary across decomposition methods. A parallel exercise is carried out with a standard real business cycle model. The results should help researchers to better understand the performance of Uzawa-Lucas model in relation to standard business cycle models under alternative definitions of the business cycle.

Pulse vs. Optimal Stationary Fishing: The Northern Stock of Hake

Pulse fishing may be a global optimal strategy in multicohort fisheries. In this article we compare the pulse fishing solutions obtained by using global numerical methods with the analytical stationary optimal solution. This allows us to quantify the potential benefits associated with the use of periodic fishing in the Northern Stock of hake. Results show that: first, management plans based exclusively on traditional reference targets as Fmsy may drive fishery economic results far from the optimal; second, global optimal solutions would imply, in a cyclical manner, the closure of the fishery for some periods and third, second best stationary policies with stable employment only reduce optimal present value of discounted profit in a 2%.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Should Fiscal Policy be different in a Non-Competitive Framework?

Published as an article in: Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, vol. 50, issue 6, pages 1311-1331.

Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach

28 p.

The impact of economic crises on social inequalities in health: what do we know so far?

Since 2008, Western countries are going through a deep economic crisis whose health impacts seem to be fundamentally counter-cyclical: when economic conditions worsen, so does health, and mortality tends to rise. While a growing number of studies have presented evidence on the effect of crises on the average population health, a largely neglected aspect of research is the impact of crises and the related political responses on social inequalities in health, even if the negative consequences of the crises are primarily borne by the most disadvantaged populations. This commentary will reflect on the results of the studies that have analyzed the effect of economic crises on social inequalities in health up to 2013. With some exceptions, the studies show an increase in health inequalities during crises, especially during the Southeast Asian and Japanese crises and the Soviet Union crisis, although it is not always evident for both sexes or all health or socioeconomic variables. In the Nordic countries during the nineties, a clear worsening of health equity did not occur. Results about the impacts of the current economic recession on health equity are still inconsistent. Some of the factors that could explain this variability in results are the role of welfare state policies, the diversity of time periods used in the analyses, the heterogeneity of socioeconomic and health variables considered, the changes in the socioeconomic profile of the groups under comparison in times of crises, and the type of measures used to analyze the magnitude of social inequalities in health. Social epidemiology should further collaborate with other disciplines to help produce more accurate and useful evidence about the relationship between crises and health equity.

El cerebro como regulador del rendimiento en la capacidad de repetir sprints

[ES] Durante pruebas cíclicas de larga duración ha sido probada que las estrategias para gestionar la fatiga pueden ser un factor determinante. A pesar de ello, este mismo fenómeno no está del todo probado que pueda darse en esfuerzos máximos de corta duración. Es por eso, que el objetivo de este trabajo ha sido analizar si variando el grado de conocimiento de los atletas durante este tipo de pruebas puede darse alguna alteración en su rendimiento. METODO: Siete deportistas varones completaron durante tres diferentes días un mismo protocolo (8 repeticiones máximas de 30 metros con un minuto de recuperación) en el que se varió la información que se les deba. Así, el primer día se les señaló que realizarían 4 repeticiones, pero cuando finalizaron se les indicó que realizarían 4 más (Prueba decepción). El segundo día, no se les informó del número de repeticiones a realizar (Prueba Suspense) y se les mandó parar al realizar la octava. Y por último, el tercer día se les señaló que realizarían 8 repeticiones (Prueba Control). RESULTADOS: Diferencias significativas (p>0.05) se encontraron en los tiempos de las cuatro primeras repeticiones entre la Prueba Suspense y Prueba Decepción. CONCLUSIÓN: Los resultados muestran como en pruebas máximas de corta duración las estrategias de gestión de la fatiga se pueden dar de manera anticipatoria al número de repeticiones a realizar.

Financial and Economic Report of a Specific Business Group

As a result of the natural evolution of the economy, ever-changing, unpredictable and cyclical, companies must adapt as far as possible to the changes that have taken place in order to continue with their normal operating activities. Likewise, they should also try to maintain a structure for long-term growth, trying at all times to generate the maximum value. The main objective of this project is to provide financial advisory services to a business group, trying to forward solutions and measures that according to the author can be effective. For this end, the situation of the group in question is analysed from early 2008 to the present day, examining its evolution, what steps have been taken together with their corresponding results and the economic-financial situation of the company at the end of last year. Contact with the company was kept throughout the process of analysis and assessment trying to take advantage of the feedback generated so that the appropriate measures can be adopted if the management considers it to be adequate.

El mapa de Hecateo

[EN] The work of Hecataeus has not been sufficiently recogniced in its scientifical and symbolical importance. The elaboration of the map is in the origin of the theory of proportions, which is essential to the Greek mathematics, origin this that has not been never in mind of the investigators of the Greek mathematics. Its «Genealogies» break the cyclical experience of time of that archaic society. And the scientifical prose, of which he is one of the beginners, opens to new experiences of time, too, introduces a new type of privacy and exploits the potential rationality of the ordinary language, that the sacred poetry obstructed to manifest.