Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

Age-dependent decrease in glutamine synthetase expression in the hippocampal astroglia of the triple transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model : mechanism for deficient glutamatergic transmission?

Astrocytes are fundamental for brain homeostasis and the progression and outcome of many neuropathologies including Alzheimer's disease (AD). In the triple transgenic mouse model of AD (3xTg-AD) generalised hippocampal astroglia atrophy precedes a restricted and specific beta-amyloid (A beta) plaque-related astrogliosis. Astrocytes are critical for CNS glutamatergic transmission being the principal elements of glutamate homeostasis through maintaining its synthesis, uptake and turnover via glutamate-glutamine shuttle. Glutamine synthetase (GS), which is specifically expressed in astrocytes, forms glutamine by an ATP-dependent amination of glutamate. Here, we report changes in GS astrocytic expression in two major cognitive areas of the hippocampus (the dentate gyrus, DG and the CA1) in 3xTg-AD animals aged between 9 and 18 months. We found a significant reduction in Nv (number of cell/mm(3)) of GS immunoreactive (GS-IR) astrocytes starting from 12 months (28.59%) of age in the DG, and sustained at 18 months (31.65%). CA1 decrease of GS-positive astrocytes Nv (33.26%) occurs at 18 months. This Nv reduction of GSIR astrocytes is paralleled by a decrease in overall GS expression (determined by its optical density) that becomes significant at 18 months (21.61% and 19.68% in DG and CA1, respectively). GS-IR Nv changes are directly associated with the presence of A beta deposits showing a decrease of 47.92% as opposed to 23.47% in areas free of A beta. These changes in GS containing astrocytes and GS-immunoreactivity indicate AD-related impairments of glutamate homeostatic system, at the advanced and late stages of the disease, which may affect the efficacy of glutamatergic transmission in the diseased brain that may contribute to the cognitive deficiency.

Democratic Values Transmission

This study addresses the issue of intergenerational transmission of democratic values embedded in social choice rules. We focus on a few rules which have been the focus of social choice theory: plurality, plurality with a runoff, majoritarian compromise, social compromise and Borda rule. We confront subjects with preferences profiles of a hypothetical electorate over a set of four alternatives. Different rules produce different outcomes and subjects decide which alternative should be chosen for the society whose preference profile is shown. We elicit each subject's preferences over rules and his/her parents' and check whether there is any relationship; 186 students and their parents attended the sessions at Istanbul Bilgi University. Overall, we find support for the hypothesis of parental transmission of democratic values and gender differences in the transmitted rule.

Fault-tolerant almost exact state transmission

We show that a category of one-dimensional XY-type models may enable high-fidelity quantum state transmissions, regardless of details of coupling configurations. This observation leads to a fault-tolerant design of a state transmission setup. The setup is fault-tolerant, with specified thresholds, against engineering failures of coupling configurations, fabrication imperfections or defects, and even time-dependent noises. We propose an experimental implementation of the fault-tolerant scheme using hard-core bosons in one-dimensional optical lattices.

Design, Construction and Testing of a Hydraulic Power Take-Off for Wave Energy Converters

This paper presents the construction, mathematical modeling and testing of a scaled universal hydraulic Power Take-Off (PTO) device for Wave Energy Converters (WECs). A specific prototype and test bench were designed and built to carry out the tests. The results obtained from these tests were used to adjust an in-house mathematical model. The PTO was initially designed to be coupled to a scaled wave energy capture device with a low speed and high torque oscillating motion and high power fluctuations. Any Energy Capture Device (ECD) that fulfils these requirements can be coupled to this PTO, provided that its scale is adequately defined depending on the rated power of the full scale prototype. The initial calibration included estimation of the pressure drops in the different components, the pressurization time of the oil inside the hydraulic cylinders and the volumetric efficiency of the complete circuit. Since the overall efficiency measured during the tests ranged from 0.69 to 0.8 and the dynamic performance of the PTO was satisfactory, the results are really promising and it is believed that this solution might prove effective in real devices.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.