Uncertain Information Structures and Backward Induction

In everyday economic interactions, it is not clear whether sequential choices are visible or not to other participants: agents might be deluded about opponents'capacity to acquire,interpret or keep track of data, or might simply unexpectedly forget what they previously observed (but not chose). Following this idea, this paper drops the assumption that the information structure of extensive-form games is commonly known; that is, it introduces uncertainty into players' capacity to observe each others' past choices. Using this approach, our main result provides the following epistemic characterisation: if players (i) are rational,(ii) have strong belief in both opponents' rationality and opponents' capacity to observe others' choices, and (iii) have common belief in both opponents' future rationality and op-ponents' future capacity to observe others' choices, then the backward induction outcome obtains. Consequently, we do not require perfect information, and players observing each others' choices is often irrelevant from a strategic point of view. The analysis extends {from generic games with perfect information to games with not necessarily perfect information{the work by Battigalli and Siniscalchi (2002) and Perea (2014), who provide different sufficient epistemic conditions for the backward induction outcome.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Non-Stationary Demand in a Durable Goods Monopoly

In a context where demand for the services of a durable good changes over time, and this change may be uncertain, the paper shows that social welfare may be higher when the monopolist seller can commit to any future price level she wishes than when she cannot. Moreover, the equilibrium under a monopolist with commitment power may Pareto-dominate the equilibrium under a monopolist without commitment ability. These results affect the desired regulation of a durable goods monopolist in this context.

Optimización dinámica con información híbrida: dos casos prácticos

[ES] La programación dinámica es un método de optimización de sistemas o de su representación matemática, donde se opera por fases, es decir, las decisiones se toman en forma secuencial.

La demanda de telefonía fija y móvil: Una aplicación de redes neuronales artificiales

[ES] El catalogar a un determinado bien o servicio como una de las «extensiones de los sentidos y las funciones humanas de la vista, el oído y el tacto», muestra la importancia del papel que desempeñan en nuestras vidas, muestra el desarrollo que alcanzaron impulsadas por las mismas necesidades de los seres humanos, muestra un mercado dinámico e importante. El servicio de telefonía móvil o celular es el desencadenador de estas expresiones y además tema de comentario, investigación y preocupación de comunidades científicas y organismos internacionales como el World Economic Forum de Davos.

Problemas de división y restitución de nombres de divinidades indígenas en la epigrafía votiva del noroeste español: el ejemplo de Couxil (Cartelle, Orense -Hispania Citerior-)

Presentado en el IX Workshop F.E.R.C.A.N (Fontes Epigraphici Religionum Celticarum Aantiquarum)

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

TWEAK/Fn14 Signaling Is Required for Liver Regeneration after Partial Hepatectomy in Mice

Background & Aims: Pro-inflammatory cytokines are important for liver regeneration after partial hepatectomy (PH). Expression of Fibroblast growth factor-inducible 14 (Fn14), the receptor for TNF-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK), is induced rapidly after PH and remains elevated throughout the period of peak hepatocyte replication. The role of Fn14 in post-PH liver regeneration is uncertain because Fn14 is expressed by liver progenitors and TWEAK-Fn14 interactions stimulate progenitor growth, but replication of mature hepatocytes is thought to drive liver regeneration after PH. Methods: To clarify the role of TWEAK-Fn14 after PH, we compared post-PH regenerative responses in wild type (WT) mice, Fn14 knockout (KO) mice, TWEAK KO mice, and WT mice treated with anti-TWEAK antibodies. Results: In WT mice, rare Fn14(+) cells localized with other progenitor markers in peri-portal areas before PH. PH rapidly increased proliferation of Fn14(+) cells; hepatocytic cells that expressed Fn14 and other progenitor markers, such as Lgr5, progressively accumulated from 12-8 h post-PH and then declined to baseline by 96 h. When TWEAK/Fn14 signaling was disrupted, progenitor accumulation, induction of pro-regenerative cytokines, hepatocyte and cholangiocyte proliferation, and over-all survival were inhibited, while post-PH liver damage and bilirubin levels were increased. TWEAK stimulated proliferation and increased Lgr5 expression in cultured liver progenitors, but had no effect on either parameter in cultured primary hepatocytes. Conclusions: TWEAK-FN14 signaling is necessary for the healthy adult liver to regenerate normally after acute partial hepatectomy.

The Economics of Gasification: A Market-Based Approach

This paper deals with the economics of gasification facilities in general and IGCC power plants in particular. Regarding the prospects of these systems, passing the technological test is one thing, passing the economic test can be quite another. In this respect, traditional valuations assume constant input and/or output prices. Since this is hardly realistic, we allow for uncertainty in prices. We naturally look at the markets where many of the products involved are regularly traded. Futures markets on commodities are particularly useful for valuing uncertain future cash flows. Thus, revenues and variable costs can be assessed by means of sound financial concepts and actual market data. On the other hand, these complex systems provide a number of flexibility options (e.g., to choose among several inputs, outputs, modes of operation, etc.). Typically, flexibility contributes significantly to the overall value of real assets. Indeed, maximization of the asset value requires the optimal exercise of any flexibility option available. Yet the economic value of flexibility is elusive, the more so under (price) uncertainty. And the right choice of input fuels and/or output products is a main concern for the facility managers. As a particular application, we deal with the valuation of input flexibility. We follow the Real Options approach. In addition to economic variables, we also address technical and environmental issues such as energy efficiency, utility performance characteristics and emissions (note that carbon constraints are looming). Lastly, a brief introduction to some stochastic processes suitable for valuation purposes is provided.

Development of appropriateness explicit criteria for cataract extraction by phacoemulsification

Background: Consensus development techniques were used in the late 1980s to create explicit criteria for the appropriateness of cataract extraction. We developed a new appropriateness of indications tool for cataract following the RAND method. We tested the validity of our panel results. Methods: Criteria were developed using a modified Delphi panel judgment process. A panel of 12 ophthalmologists was assembled. Ratings were analyzed regarding the level of agreement among panelists. We studied the influence of all variables on the final panel score using linear and logistic regression models. The explicit criteria developed were summarized by classification and regression tree analysis. Results: Of the 765 indications evaluated by the main panel in the second round, 32.9% were found appropriate, 30.1% uncertain, and 37% inappropriate. Agreement was found in 53% of the indications and disagreement in 0.9%. Seven variables were considered to create the indications and divided into three groups: simple cataract, with diabetic retinopathy, or with other ocular pathologies. The preoperative visual acuity in the cataractous eye and visual function were the variables that best explained the panel scoring. The panel results were synthesized and presented in three decision trees. Misclassification error in the decision trees, as compared with the panel original criteria, was 5.3%. Conclusion: The parameters tested showed acceptable validity for an evaluation tool. These results support the use of this indication algorithm as a screening tool for assessing the appropriateness of cataract extraction in field studies and for the development of practice guidelines.

Flood risk management: What are the main drivers of prevention?

4 p.

A new adaptive marine policy toolbox to support ecosystem-based approach to management

4 p.

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.

The MLH1 c.1852_1853delinsGC (p.K618A) Variant in Colorectal Cancer: Genetic Association Study in 18,723 Individuals

Colorectal cancer is one of the most frequent neoplasms and an important cause of mortality in the developed world. Mendelian syndromes account for about 5% of the total burden of CRC, being Lynch syndrome and familial adenomatous polyposis the most common forms. Lynch syndrome tumors develop mainly as a consequence of defective DNA mismatch repair associated with germline mutations in MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2. A significant proportion of variants identified by screening these genes correspond to missense or noncoding changes without a clear pathogenic consequence, and they are designated as "variants of uncertain significance'', being the c.1852_1853delinsGC (p.K618A) variant in the MLH1 gene a clear example. The implication of this variant as a low-penetrance risk variant for CRC was assessed in the present study by performing a case-control study within a large cohort from the COGENT consortium-COST Action BM1206 including 18,723 individuals (8,055 colorectal cancer cases and 10,668 controls) and a case-only genotype-phenotype correlation with several clinical and pathological characteristics restricted to the Epicolon cohort. Our results showed no involvement of this variant as a low-penetrance variant for colorectal cancer genetic susceptibility and no association with any clinical and pathological characteristics including family history for this neoplasm or Lynch syndrome.