Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Is there a Phillips Curve in the US and the EU15 Countries? An empirical investigation

This paper studies the comovement between output and inflation in the EU15 countries. Following den Haan (2000), I use the correlations of VAR forecast errors at different horizons in order to analyze the output-inflation relationship. The empirical results show that eight countries display a significant positive comovement between output and inflation. Moreover, the empirical evidence suggests that a Phillips curve phenomenom is more likely to be detected in countries where inflation is more stable.

Data analysis advances in marine science for fisheries management : supervised classification application

169 p. : il. col.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Chemosensory response of marine flagellate towards L- and D- dissolved free amino acids generated during heavy grazing on bacteria

This study investigated the generation of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA) by the bacterivorous flagellate Rhynchomonas nasuta when feeding on abundant prey. Specifically, it examined whether this flagellate protist exhibits a chemosensory response towards those amino acids. The concentrations of glycine and the and D-enantiomers of glutamate, serine, threonine, alanine, and leucine were determined in co-cultures of the flagellate and bacteria. Glycine, L- and D-alanine, and L-serine were found to accumulate under these conditions in amounts that correlated positively with flagellate abundance, suggesting that protists are involved in their generation. Investigations of the chemotactic response of young and old foraging protists to the same amino acids, offered in concentrations similar to those previously generated, showed that glycine elicited the strongest attraction in both age groups. Young protists were strongly attracted to all the assayed amino acids, whereas older protists maintained a high level of attraction only for glycine. These results suggest that glycine generated by protists actively grazing in bacterially enriched patches functions as an infochemical, signaling to foraging protists the presence of available prey in the aquatic environment.

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Breaking the 400 ppm barrier: Physical and Social implications of the recent CO2 rise

6 p.

Rompiendo la barrera de las 400 ppm: implicaciones físicas y sociales del reciente aumento de CO2

6 p.

400 ppm-ko langa hautsi da: CO2-kontzentrazioaren igoeraren ondorio fisiko eta sozialak

6 p.

A new adaptive marine policy toolbox to support ecosystem-based approach to management

4 p.

Evaluation of marine phytoplankton toxicity by application of marine invertebrate bioassays

The dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum and the haptophyte Prymnesium parvum are well known for their toxin production and negative effects in marine coastal environments. A. minutum produces toxins which cause paralytic shellfish poisoning in humans and can affect copepods, shellfish and other marine organisms. Toxins of P. parvum are associated with massive fish mortalities resulting in negative impacts on the marine ecosystem and large economic losses in commercial aquaculture. The aim of this work is to improve our knowledge about the reliability of the use of marine invertebrate bioassays to detect microalgae toxicity, by performing: (i) a 24- to 48-h test with the brine shrimp Artemia franciscana; (ii) a 48-hour embryo-larval toxicity test with the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus; and (iii) a 72-h test with the amphipod Corophium multisetosum. The results indicate that A. franciscana and P. lividus larvae are sensitive to the toxicity of A. minutum and P. parvum. LC50 comparison analysis between the tested organisms reveals that A. franciscana is the most sensitive organism for A. minutum. These findings suggest that the use of different organizational biological level bioassays appears to be a suitable tool for A. minutum and P. parvum toxicity assessment.

Integrated assessment of environmental pollution using diverse sentinel organisms within Basque marine environments

294 p.

Simplified Formulae for the Estimation of Offshore Wind Turbines Clutter on Marine Radars

The potential impact that offshore wind farms may cause on nearby marine radars should be considered before the wind farm is installed. Strong radar echoes from the turbines may degrade radars' detection capability in the area around the wind farm. Although conventional computational methods provide accurate results of scattering by wind turbines, they are not directly implementable in software tools that can be used to conduct the impact studies. This paper proposes a simple model to assess the clutter that wind turbines may generate on marine radars. This method can be easily implemented in the system modeling software tools for the impact analysis of a wind farm in a real scenario.

What Can the Brain Teach Us about Winemaking? An fMRI Study of Alcohol Level Preferences

Over the last few decades, wine makers have been producing wines with a higher alcohol content, assuming that they are more appreciated by consumers. To test this hypothesis, we used functional magnetic imaging to compare reactions of human subjects to different types of wine, focusing on brain regions critical for flavor processing and food reward. Participants were presented with carefully matched pairs of high- and low- alcohol content red wines, without informing them of any of the wine attributes. Contrary to expectation, significantly greater activation was found for low- alcohol than for high- alcohol content wines in brain regions that are sensitive to taste intensity, including the insula as well as the cerebellum. Wines were closely matched for all physical attributes except for alcohol content, thus we interpret the preferential response to the low- alcohol content wines as arising from top-down modulation due to the low alcohol content wines inducing greater attentional exploration of aromas and flavours. The findings raise intriguing possibilities for objectively testing hypotheses regarding methods of producing a highly complex product such as wine.