The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Hong Kong: 1985-2006

This paper has been presented at the XIII Encuentros de Economía Aplicada, Sevilla, Spain, 2010.

Joan Robinson Was Almost Right: Output under Third-Degree Price Discrimination

In this paper, we show that in order for third-degree price discrimination to increase total output, the demands of the strong markets should be, as conjectured by Robinson (1933), more concave than the demands of the weak markets. By making the distinction between adjusted concavity of the inverse demand and adjusted concavity of the direct demand, we are able to state necessary conditions and sufficient conditions for third-degree price discrimination to increase total output.

Monopoly Price Discrimination and Demand Curvature

Published as an article in: American Economic Review, 2010, vol. 100, issue 4, pages 1601-15.

Another Look to the Price-Dividend Ratio: A Markov-Switching Approach

This paper analyzes the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov-switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment is introduced. This particular specification robustly supports a nonlinear reversion process and identifies two relevant episodes: the post-war period from the mid-50’s to the mid-70’s and the so called “90’s boom” period. A three-regime Markov-switching model displays the best regime identification and reveals that only the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are near-nonstationary states. Interestingly, the last part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a regime featuring a highly reverting process.

How much efficiency gains and price reductions for an efficiency defense? 'Quanto Basta'

Potential efficiency gains due to a merger can be used by competition authorities to judge upon proposed mergers. In a world where agents’ efforts, observable or unobservable, affect the success of a production cost reducing project that may be conducted as a stand-alone firm or in a merger, we characterize the merger decision and the type of errors a competition authority may make when it relies on an efficiency defense. In addition, we show that the occurrence of either type of errors is always smaller under the unobservable efforts assumption, than under the observable efforts one.

Age-dependent decrease in glutamine synthetase expression in the hippocampal astroglia of the triple transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model : mechanism for deficient glutamatergic transmission?

Astrocytes are fundamental for brain homeostasis and the progression and outcome of many neuropathologies including Alzheimer's disease (AD). In the triple transgenic mouse model of AD (3xTg-AD) generalised hippocampal astroglia atrophy precedes a restricted and specific beta-amyloid (A beta) plaque-related astrogliosis. Astrocytes are critical for CNS glutamatergic transmission being the principal elements of glutamate homeostasis through maintaining its synthesis, uptake and turnover via glutamate-glutamine shuttle. Glutamine synthetase (GS), which is specifically expressed in astrocytes, forms glutamine by an ATP-dependent amination of glutamate. Here, we report changes in GS astrocytic expression in two major cognitive areas of the hippocampus (the dentate gyrus, DG and the CA1) in 3xTg-AD animals aged between 9 and 18 months. We found a significant reduction in Nv (number of cell/mm(3)) of GS immunoreactive (GS-IR) astrocytes starting from 12 months (28.59%) of age in the DG, and sustained at 18 months (31.65%). CA1 decrease of GS-positive astrocytes Nv (33.26%) occurs at 18 months. This Nv reduction of GSIR astrocytes is paralleled by a decrease in overall GS expression (determined by its optical density) that becomes significant at 18 months (21.61% and 19.68% in DG and CA1, respectively). GS-IR Nv changes are directly associated with the presence of A beta deposits showing a decrease of 47.92% as opposed to 23.47% in areas free of A beta. These changes in GS containing astrocytes and GS-immunoreactivity indicate AD-related impairments of glutamate homeostatic system, at the advanced and late stages of the disease, which may affect the efficacy of glutamatergic transmission in the diseased brain that may contribute to the cognitive deficiency.

Democratic Values Transmission

This study addresses the issue of intergenerational transmission of democratic values embedded in social choice rules. We focus on a few rules which have been the focus of social choice theory: plurality, plurality with a runoff, majoritarian compromise, social compromise and Borda rule. We confront subjects with preferences profiles of a hypothetical electorate over a set of four alternatives. Different rules produce different outcomes and subjects decide which alternative should be chosen for the society whose preference profile is shown. We elicit each subject's preferences over rules and his/her parents' and check whether there is any relationship; 186 students and their parents attended the sessions at Istanbul Bilgi University. Overall, we find support for the hypothesis of parental transmission of democratic values and gender differences in the transmitted rule.

Monopoly price discrimination with constant elasticity demand

This paper presents new results on the welfare e¤ects of third-degree price discrimination under constant elasticity demand. We show that when both the share of the strong market under uniform pricing and the elasticity di¤erence between markets are high enough,then price discrimination not only can increase social welfare but also consumer surplus.

Fault-tolerant almost exact state transmission

We show that a category of one-dimensional XY-type models may enable high-fidelity quantum state transmissions, regardless of details of coupling configurations. This observation leads to a fault-tolerant design of a state transmission setup. The setup is fault-tolerant, with specified thresholds, against engineering failures of coupling configurations, fabrication imperfections or defects, and even time-dependent noises. We propose an experimental implementation of the fault-tolerant scheme using hard-core bosons in one-dimensional optical lattices.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and Energy Services

4 p.

Divergences in the Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and of Energy Services

32 p.