The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.

Structural relaxation and chain dynamics in polymer melts : a computational investigation on the role of the intramolecular barriers

149 p. : il. col.

The Role of the Subthalamic Nucleus in L-DOPA Induced Dyskinesia in 6-Hydroxydopamine Lesioned Rats

14 p.

Monstrous Women: The Frankenstein myth and the role of the mother in Víctor Erice's El Espiritu de la colmena (1973)

Eguíluz, Federico; Merino, Raquel; Olsen, Vickie; Pajares, Eterio; Santamaría, José Miguel (eds.)

New Oncogenic Drivers in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Role of the RNA Binding Protein Hu antigen R

156 p. : graf.

The Role of the Demand for Environmental Quality in Driving Transitions to Low-Polluting Energy Sources

4 p.