The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

Joan Robinson Was Almost Right: Output under Third-Degree Price Discrimination

In this paper, we show that in order for third-degree price discrimination to increase total output, the demands of the strong markets should be, as conjectured by Robinson (1933), more concave than the demands of the weak markets. By making the distinction between adjusted concavity of the inverse demand and adjusted concavity of the direct demand, we are able to state necessary conditions and sufficient conditions for third-degree price discrimination to increase total output.

Monopoly Price Discrimination and Demand Curvature

Published as an article in: American Economic Review, 2010, vol. 100, issue 4, pages 1601-15.

Another Look to the Price-Dividend Ratio: A Markov-Switching Approach

This paper analyzes the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov-switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment is introduced. This particular specification robustly supports a nonlinear reversion process and identifies two relevant episodes: the post-war period from the mid-50’s to the mid-70’s and the so called “90’s boom” period. A three-regime Markov-switching model displays the best regime identification and reveals that only the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are near-nonstationary states. Interestingly, the last part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a regime featuring a highly reverting process.

How much efficiency gains and price reductions for an efficiency defense? 'Quanto Basta'

Potential efficiency gains due to a merger can be used by competition authorities to judge upon proposed mergers. In a world where agents’ efforts, observable or unobservable, affect the success of a production cost reducing project that may be conducted as a stand-alone firm or in a merger, we characterize the merger decision and the type of errors a competition authority may make when it relies on an efficiency defense. In addition, we show that the occurrence of either type of errors is always smaller under the unobservable efforts assumption, than under the observable efforts one.

Consumer Expertise or Credit Risk? An empirical analysis of mortgage pricing

Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Ancient DNA from Hunter-Gatherer and Farmer Groups from Northern Spain Supports a Random Dispersion Model for the Neolithic Expansion into Europe

10 p.

Monopoly price discrimination with constant elasticity demand

This paper presents new results on the welfare e¤ects of third-degree price discrimination under constant elasticity demand. We show that when both the share of the strong market under uniform pricing and the elasticity di¤erence between markets are high enough,then price discrimination not only can increase social welfare but also consumer surplus.

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and Energy Services

4 p.

Divergences in the Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and of Energy Services

32 p.

Price Premium for High-Efficiency Refrigerators and Calculation of Price-Elasticities for Close-Substitutes: Combining Hedonic Pricing and Demand Systems

21 p.

Trends in Income and Price Elasticities of Transport Demand (1850-2010)

40 p.

Analysis of the differences between the rates of inflation associated with two aggregate price level: The case of the euro area and the United States

Idioma: Inglés Abstract: This project focuses on two indicators of prices, the GDP deflator and the consumer price index (CPI), and analyzes the differences and similarities they present. These price indexes have been chosen taking into account its great representativeness and importance to economic and social level, and its direct relationship to the overall functioning of the economy and, in particular, inflation. It should be also mentioned that this study was conducted for cases of the euro area and the United States, as the impact of these economies in the economic and social situation at international level is very significant.