Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

Chemical recycling of municipal packaging waste by pyrolysis

[EN]The present doctoral thesis centers on studying pyrolysis as a chemical recycling technique for rejected packaging waste fractions coming from separation and sorting plants. The pyrolysis experiments have been carried out in a lab-scale installation equipped with a 3.5 L semi-batch reactor and a condensation and collection system for the liquids and gases generated. In the present thesis, an experimental study on the conventional pyrolysis process applied to the aforementioned waste fractions has been conducted, as well as the study of non-conventional or advanced pyrolysis processes such as catalytic and stepwise pyrolysis. The study of the operating parameters has been carried out using a mixed plastics simulated sample, the composition of which is similar to that found in real fractions, and subsequently the optimized process has been applied to real packaging waste. An exhaustive characterization of the solids, liquids and gases obtained in the process has been made after each experiment and their potential uses have been established. Finally, an empirical model that will predict the pyrolysis yields (% organic liquid, % aqueous liquid, % gases, % char, % inorganic solid) as a function of the composition of the initial sample has been developed. As a result of the experimental work done, the requirements have been established for an industrial packaging waste pyrolysis plant that aims to be sufficiently versatile as to generate useful products regardless of the nature of the raw material.

Depletion of the heaviest stable N isotope is associated with NH4 +/NH3 toxicity in NH4 +-fed plants

Background: In plants, nitrate (NO(3)(-)) nutrition gives rise to a natural N isotopic signature (delta(15)N), which correlates with the delta(15)N of the N source. However, little is known about the relationship between the delta(15)N of the N source and the (14)N/(15)N fractionation in plants under ammonium (NH(4)(+)) nutrition. When NH(4)(+) is the major N source, the two forms, NH(4)(+) and NH(3), are present in the nutrient solution. There is a 1.025 thermodynamic isotope effect between NH(3) (g) and NH(4)(+)(aq) which drives to a different delta(15)N. Nine plant species with different NH(4)(+)-sensitivities were cultured hydroponically with NO(3)(-) or NH(4)(+) as the sole N sources, and plant growth and delta(15)N were determined. Short-term NH(4)(+)/NH(3) uptake experiments at pH 6.0 and 9.0 (which favours NH(3) form) were carried out in order to support and substantiate our hypothesis. N source fractionation throughout the whole plant was interpreted on the basis of the relative transport of NH(4)(+) and NH(3). -- Results: Several NO(3)(-)-fed plants were consistently enriched in (15)N, whereas plants under NH(4)(+) nutrition were depleted of (15)N. It was shown that more sensitive plants to NH(4)(+) toxicity were the most depleted in (15)N. In parallel, N-deficient pea and spinach plants fed with (15)NH(4)(+) showed an increased level of NH(3) uptake at alkaline pH that was related to the (15)N depletion of the plant. Tolerant to NH(4)(+) pea plants or sensitive spinach plants showed similar trend on (15)N depletion while slight differences in the time kinetics were observed during the initial stages. The use of RbNO(3) as control discarded that the differences observed arise from pH detrimental effects. -- Conclusions: This article proposes that the negative values of delta(15)N in NH(4)(+)-fed plants are originated from NH(3) uptake by plants. Moreover, this depletion of the heavier N isotope is proportional to the NH(4)(+)/NH(3) toxicity in plants species. Therefore, we hypothesise that the low affinity transport system for NH(4)(+) may have two components: one that transports N in the molecular form and is associated with fractionation and another that transports N in the ionic form and is not associated with fractionation.

The Economics of Gasification: A Market-Based Approach

This paper deals with the economics of gasification facilities in general and IGCC power plants in particular. Regarding the prospects of these systems, passing the technological test is one thing, passing the economic test can be quite another. In this respect, traditional valuations assume constant input and/or output prices. Since this is hardly realistic, we allow for uncertainty in prices. We naturally look at the markets where many of the products involved are regularly traded. Futures markets on commodities are particularly useful for valuing uncertain future cash flows. Thus, revenues and variable costs can be assessed by means of sound financial concepts and actual market data. On the other hand, these complex systems provide a number of flexibility options (e.g., to choose among several inputs, outputs, modes of operation, etc.). Typically, flexibility contributes significantly to the overall value of real assets. Indeed, maximization of the asset value requires the optimal exercise of any flexibility option available. Yet the economic value of flexibility is elusive, the more so under (price) uncertainty. And the right choice of input fuels and/or output products is a main concern for the facility managers. As a particular application, we deal with the valuation of input flexibility. We follow the Real Options approach. In addition to economic variables, we also address technical and environmental issues such as energy efficiency, utility performance characteristics and emissions (note that carbon constraints are looming). Lastly, a brief introduction to some stochastic processes suitable for valuation purposes is provided.

Optimization of the pyrolysis process for the production of a biomass derived reducing agent and hydrogen-rich gases

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Seasonal Blowfly Distribution and Abundance in Fragmented Landscapes. Is It Useful in Forensic Inference about Where a Corpse Has Been Decaying?

Blowflies are insects of forensic interest as they may indicate characteristics of the environment where a body has been laying prior to the discovery. In order to estimate changes in community related to landscape and to assess if blowfly species can be used as indicators of the landscape where a corpse has been decaying, we studied the blowfly community and how it is affected by landscape in a 7,000 km(2) region during a whole year. Using baited traps deployed monthly we collected 28,507 individuals of 10 calliphorid species, 7 of them well represented and distributed in the study area. Multiple Analysis of Variance found changes in abundance between seasons in the 7 analyzed species, and changes related to land use in 4 of them (Calliphora vomitoria, Lucilia ampullacea, L. caesar and L. illustris). Generalised Linear Model analyses of abundance of these species compared with landscape descriptors at different scales found only a clear significant relationship between summer abundance of C. vomitoria and distance to urban areas and degree of urbanisation. This relationship explained more deviance when considering the landscape composition at larger geographical scales (up to 2,500 m around sampling site). For the other species, no clear relationship between land uses and abundance was found, and therefore observed changes in their abundance patterns could be the result of other variables, probably small changes in temperature. Our results suggest that blowfly community composition cannot be used to infer in what kind of landscape a corpse has decayed, at least in highly fragmented habitats, the only exception being the summer abundance of C. vomitoria.

Research on operating conditions at the catalytic reactor for the combined removal of NOx and PCDD/PCDFs from MWI plants

The management of municipal solid waste (MSW), particularly the role of incineration, is currently a subject of public debate. Incineration shows to be a good alternative of reducing the volume of waste and eliminating certain infectious components. Moreover, Municipal Waste Incinerators (MWI), are reported to be highly hygienic and apart from that MWIs are immediately effective in terms of transport (incinerators can be built close to the waste sources) and incineration's nature. Nevertheless, the emissions of many hazardous substances make the Municipal Waste Incineration (MWI) plants to be unpopular. Metals (especially lead, manganese, cadmium, chromium and mercury) are concentrated in fly and bottom ashes. Furthermore, incomplete combustion produces a wide variety of potentially hazardous organic compounds, such as aldehydes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), chlorinated hydrocarbons including polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF), and even acid gases, including NOx. Many of these hazardous substances are carcinogenic and some have direct systemic toxicity.