The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

On the Informational Role of Term Structure in the U.S. Monetary Policy Rule

This paper uses a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the new Keynesian monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure using both revised and real-time data. The estimation results show that the term spread and policy inertia are both important determinants of the U.S. estimated monetary policy rule whereas the persistence of shocks plays a small but significant role when revised and real-time data of output and inflation are both considered. More importantly, the relative importance of term spread and persistent shocks in the policy rule and the shock transmission mechanism drastically change when it is taken into account that real-time data are not well behaved.

The Importance of Stock Market Returns in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules: a Structural Approach

This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with financial variables in order to analyze the relative importance of stock market returns and term spread in the estimated U.S. monetary policy rule. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. The empirical results show that the Fed seems to respond to the macroeconomic outlook and to the stock market return but does not seem to respond to the term spread. Moreover, policy inertia and persistent policy shocks are also significant features of the estimated policy rule.

Term Structure and the Estimated Monetary Policy Rule in the Eurozone

Published as an article in: Spanish Economic Review, 2008, vol. 10, issue 4, pages 251-277.

Subcutaneous fat composition of youthful and mature Canadian beef: emphasis on individual conjugated linoleic acid and trans-18:1 isomers

[EN]A comprehensive evaluation of the fatty acid composition of subcutaneous adipose tissue from beef cattle produced in western Canada was undertaken to determine if the current Canadian grading system is able to distinguish classes of animals with value added potential due to their fatty acid composition. Grades included youthful Canadian Yield Grade 1 A/AA beef, under (YUTM) and over (YOTM) 30 mo of age and the four mature grades (D1, D2, D2 and D4). Subcutaneous fat between the 12th and 13th ribs over the longissimus muscle was obtained from 18_21 animals per grade. Fatty acids were analyzed using a combination of silver-ion HPLC and GC with a highly polar 100 m column. There were no differences in total trans-18:1 content amongst grades, but adipose tissue from grade D1, D2 and D4 had more 11t-18:1 than YUTM (PB0.05), whereas adipose tissue from YUTM carcasses had more 10t-18:1 than all other grades (PB0.05). Adipose tissue from YUTM carcasses also had less total CLA (PB0.05) than the D grades, mainly due to a lower level of 9c,11t-CLA, but they had slightly more 7t,9c-CLA and 10t,12c-CLA (PB0.05). Adipose tissue from YOTM and D grades contained more n-3 fatty acids relative to YUTM (0.56% vs. 0.29%; PB0.05) and lower n-6:n-3 ratios (PB0.05). Overall, older animals (YOTM and D grades) had adipose tissue compositions with higher levels of fatty acids with reported health benefits. Taken together, these higher levels may provide opportunities for value added marketing if regulatory authorities allow claims for their enrichment based on demonstrated health benefits. Higher concentrations of beneficial fatty acids, however, need to be considered within the context of the complete fatty acid profile and it would be important to demonstrate their advantages in the presence of relatively high levels of saturated fatty acids.

Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE Models

Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model extended with both real-time and final data. After implementing a Bayesian estimation approach, the role of both habit formation and price indexation fall significantly in the extended model. The results show how revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. In turn, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.

RCeveierwamide and ceramide 1-phosphate in health and disease

Sphingolipids are essential components of cell membranes, and many of them regulate vital cell functions. In particular, ceramide plays crucial roles in cell signaling processes. Two major actions of ceramides are the promotion of cell cycle arrest and the induction of apoptosis. Phosphorylation of ceramide produces ceramide 1-phosphate (C1P), which has opposite effects to ceramide. C1P is mitogenic and has prosurvival properties. In addition, C1P is an important mediator of inflammatory responses, an action that takes place through stimulation of cytosolic phospholipase A2, and the subsequent release of arachidonic acid and prostaglandin formation. All of the former actions are thought to be mediated by intracellularly generated C1P. However, the recent observation that C1P stimulates macrophage chemotaxis implicates specific plasma membrane receptors that are coupled to Gi proteins. Hence, it can be concluded that C1P has dual actions in cells, as it can act as an intracellular second messenger to promote cell survival, or as an extracellular receptor agonist to stimulate cell migration.

Sustitución del gen nirA entre cianobacterias termofílicas. Clonación, expresión y purificación de la nitrito reductasa de Thermosynechococcus elongatus BP-1

220 p.