Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

A review of travel time estimation and forecasting for advanced traveler information systems

Providing on line travel time information to commuters has become an important issue for Advanced Traveler Information Systems and Route Guidance Systems in the past years, due to the increasing traffic volume and congestion in the road networks. Travel time is one of the most useful traffic variables because it is more intuitive than other traffic variables such as flow, occupancy or density, and is useful for travelers in decision making. The aim of this paper is to present a global view of the literature on the modeling of travel time, introducing crucial concepts and giving a thorough classification of the existing tech- niques. Most of the attention will focus on travel time estimation and travel time prediction, which are generally not presented together. The main goals of these models, the study areas and methodologies used to carry out these tasks will be further explored and categorized.

Linking transformational leadership and organizational trust: has organizational commitment a mediating effect on it?

[EN] The main goal of this study is to analyze how organizational commitment has a mediating effect on the relation between transformational leadership and organizational trust. Therefore we developed an organization analysis based on a survey that was used to collect primary data from a sample of 58 employees. We obtained a 71% response rate and these data were analyzed using quantitative methodological techniques and linear regression. The research was conducted at the Serralves Foundation (Porto, Portugal) to empirically test the proposed research model and its hypotheses. The empirical results confirm that transformational leadership positively enhances organizational trust. However, transformational leadership and organizational trust are not significantly influenced by organizational commitment, thus not having a mediating effect on this relationship. Such results assume particular relevance because they become a basis for comparative studies in similar organizations. This study brings some theoretical contributions to the literature by analyzing the mediating effect of organizational commitment on the relation between transformational leadership and organizational trust in cultural organizations and has also some practical management implications, as it draws attention to the importance of a set of practices, job satisfaction oriented, which can effectively lead to organizational commitment intervention in the relationship between transformational leadership and organizational trust.