An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement Between Output and Inflation in the U.S.?

Published as article in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008), 32(May), pp. 1466-1488.

How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone? an Indirect Inference Approach

This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model under alternative specifications of the monetary policy rule using U.S. and Eurozone data. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical method based on the indirect inference principle. An unrestricted VAR is considered as the auxiliary model. On the one hand, the estimation method proposed overcomes some of the shortcomings of using a structural VAR as the auxiliary model in order to identify the impulse response that defines the minimum distance estimator implemented in the literature. On the other hand, by following a classical approach we can further assess the estimation results found in recent papers that follow a maximum-likelihood Bayesian approach. The estimation results show that some structural parameter estimates are quite sensitive to the specification of monetary policy. Moreover, the estimation results in the U.S. show that the fit of the NKM under an optimal monetary plan is much worse than the fit of the NKM model assuming a forward-looking Taylor rule. In contrast to the U.S. case, in the Eurozone the best fit is obtained assuming a backward-looking Taylor rule, but the improvement is rather small with respect to assuming either a forward-looking Taylor rule or an optimal plan.

The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model

This paper proposes an extended version of the basic New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model which contemplates revision processes of output and inflation data in order to assess the importance of data revisions on the estimated monetary policy rule parameters and the transmission of policy shocks. Our empirical evidence based on a structural econometric approach suggests that although the initial announcements of output and inflation are not rational forecasts of revised output and inflation data, ignoring the presence of non well-behaved revision processes may not be a serious drawback in the analysis of monetary policy in this framework. However, the transmission of inflation-push shocks is largely affected by considering data revisions. The latter being especially true when the nominal stickiness parameter is estimated taking into account data revision processes.

On some new mathematical models for infective diseases: analysis, equilibrium, positivity and vaccination controls

196 p.

Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach

28 p.

On the Informational Role of Term Structure in the U.S. Monetary Policy Rule

This paper uses a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the new Keynesian monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure using both revised and real-time data. The estimation results show that the term spread and policy inertia are both important determinants of the U.S. estimated monetary policy rule whereas the persistence of shocks plays a small but significant role when revised and real-time data of output and inflation are both considered. More importantly, the relative importance of term spread and persistent shocks in the policy rule and the shock transmission mechanism drastically change when it is taken into account that real-time data are not well behaved.

The Importance of Stock Market Returns in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules: a Structural Approach

This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with financial variables in order to analyze the relative importance of stock market returns and term spread in the estimated U.S. monetary policy rule. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. The empirical results show that the Fed seems to respond to the macroeconomic outlook and to the stock market return but does not seem to respond to the term spread. Moreover, policy inertia and persistent policy shocks are also significant features of the estimated policy rule.

Term Structure and the Estimated Monetary Policy Rule in the Eurozone

Published as an article in: Spanish Economic Review, 2008, vol. 10, issue 4, pages 251-277.

Crowdsourcing: la descentralización del conocimiento y su impacto en los modelos productivos y de negocio

[ES] La participación activa del usuario en la Red no solo ha empezado a fomentar nuevos modelos productivos, sino también todo un modelo de negocios alrededor de los mismos. Muchas empresas están comenzando a explotar ventajas competitivas, en costes o en diferenciación, derivadas de la participación del usuario y su disponibilidad a colaborar en diversos proyectos en los que no siempre media, necesariamente, contraprestación económica; y cuando existe, suele ser inferior a la que exigiría un profesional medio por realizar el mismo trabajo. En este trabajo se analiza el fenómeno del crowdsourcing desde ambas vertientes, así como el importante impacto económico y social que genera esta nueva forma de trabajo. Dado que la base del crowdsourcing se encuentra en el efecto red, se comienza realizando un planteamiento crítico basado en la consideración de Internet como un espacio participativo que empodera a individuos y agentes económicos y en el que se analizan sus ventajas y límites. Posteriormente, y en base al estudio de diferentes casos, se sistematizan las características principales del crowdsourcing para definir tres modelos básicos en función de su consideración como modelo de negocio, como producción colaborativa con fines altruistas o como un híbrido de ambos.

Global and local challenges for best practices in assessment. The 9th Conference on the International Test Commission. Book of abstracts

The 9th International Test Commission Conference (ITC) took place at the Miramar Palace in San Sebastian, Spain, between the 2nd and 5th of July, 2014. The Conference was titled, “Global and Local Challenges for Best Practices in Assessment.” The International Test Commission, ITC (www.intestcom.org), is an association of national psychological associations, test commissions, publishers, and other organizations, as well as individuals who are committed to the promotion of effective testing and assessment policies and to the proper development, evaluation, and uses of educational and psychological instruments. The ITC facilitates the exchange of information among members and stimulates their cooperation on problems related to the construction, distribution, and uses of psychological and educational tests and other psychodiagnostic tools. This volume contains the abstracts of the contributions presented at the 9th International Test Commission Conference. The four themes of the Conference were closely linked to the goals of the ITC: - Challenges and Opportunities in International Assessment. - Application of New Technoloogies and New Psychometric Models in Testing. - Standards and Guidelines for Best Testing Practices. - Testing in Multilingual and Multicultural Contexts.

Impacto de la web 2.0 en los perfiles profesionales

En pleno siglo XXI, el uso de Internet y los avances no sólo afectan a las personas sino que las empresas también deben evolucionar al mismo ritmo y adaptar todas sus prácticas a dichos avances. Con la aparición de la Web 2.0, ciertos aspectos de las empresas han quedado obsoletos y se han debido adaptar a la nueva era: la era de la comunicación e de la interacción a través de Internet. Se han creado nuevos modelos de negocio, se han mejorado actividades de la cadena de valor, han surgido nuevas estrategias de marketing y comunicación corporativa y se han creado unos nuevos canales de venta, alrededor del fenómeno e-Commerce. En cuanto a los trabajadores, las empresas han comenzado a valorar nuevas competencias relacionadas con el uso de Internet y la Web 2.0. Dichas competencias pueden ser comunes para muchos puestos de trabajo, por ejemplo el uso de redes sociales o la gestión de la información, otras son más específicas y dependen del puesto de trabajo que consideremos. Finalmente, la aparición de la Web 2.0 ha exigido a las empresas a crear nuevas áreas y puestos de trabajo o modificar los actuales para adecuarse a los nuevos tiempos y tendencias. Así surgen los diferentes perfiles profesionales de las áreas de Estrategia Digital, Marketing Digital, Contenido Digital, Social Media, Análisis Big Data, e-Commerce y Mobile Marketing. Estos perfiles gozan de mucha popularidad y demanda por parte de las empresas y se estima que va a crecer aún más el número de puestos relacionados con el ámbito digital, ya que son las profesiones del futuro.

Impacto económico y social del mundo de la moda

(ESPAÑOL) La moda es un fenómeno social y cultural que genera un elevado interés entre muchos colectivos. Es también un sector económico generador de actividad y empleo, que influye además en otros sectores y es capaz de crear imagen de país. La llegada de internet y la explosión de la conectividad han desencadenado importantes cambios, de los que el sector de la moda no es ajeno. Así, se han generado nuevos modos de visibilidad para la moda, se han creado nuevos perfiles profesionales, y se han desarrollado nuevos modelos de negocio. Los prescriptores y marcadores de tendencias han dejado de estar en manos de las marcas y los grupos editoriales, para pasar a manos de los propios consumidores, que crean tendencias con la exhibición de sus propios looks. Blogs, bloggers y redes sociales, entre las que destaca Instagram, se han convertido en instrumentos imprescindibles en las estrategias de marketing de las empresas del sector, desencadenándose una gran transformación. Este es precisamente el eje central del presente trabajo: el análisis del proceso de evolución del sector de la moda, desde un punto de vista tanto económico como social.

Time transcendence, metadata and future utilization in 3D models of point clouds for heritage elements

Contributed to: Virtual Retrospect 2007 (Pessac, France, Nov 14-16, 2007)