Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Is there a Phillips Curve in the US and the EU15 Countries? An empirical investigation

This paper studies the comovement between output and inflation in the EU15 countries. Following den Haan (2000), I use the correlations of VAR forecast errors at different horizons in order to analyze the output-inflation relationship. The empirical results show that eight countries display a significant positive comovement between output and inflation. Moreover, the empirical evidence suggests that a Phillips curve phenomenom is more likely to be detected in countries where inflation is more stable.

Phylogeography and non-invasive landscape genetics of the European pine marten ("martes martes" L. 1758) : insights into ancient and contemporary processes shaping genetic variation

283 p. : graf., map.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Valuing a Natura 2000 network site to inform land use options using a discrete choice experiment: An illustration from the Basque Country

One of the main problems that public institutions face in the management of protected areas, such as the European Natura 2000 network, is determining how to design and implement sustainable management plans that account for the wide range of marketed and non-marketed benefits they provide to society. This paper presents an application of a stated preference valuation approach aimed at evaluating the social preferences of the population of the Basque Country, Spain, for the key attributes of a regional Natura 2000 network site. According to our results, individuals’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) is higher for attributes associated with non-use values (native tree species and biodiversity conservation) than for attributes associated with use values (agricultural development and commercial forestry). The paper concludes that management policies related to Natura 2000 network sites should account for both for the importance of non-use values and the heterogeneity of the population's preferences in order to minimize potential land use conflicts.

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Breaking the 400 ppm barrier: Physical and Social implications of the recent CO2 rise

6 p.

Rompiendo la barrera de las 400 ppm: implicaciones físicas y sociales del reciente aumento de CO2

6 p.

400 ppm-ko langa hautsi da: CO2-kontzentrazioaren igoeraren ondorio fisiko eta sozialak

6 p.

Geology alive. GeoBizirik.org

Geology is the science that studies the Earth, its composition, structure and origin in addition to past and present phenomena that leave their mark on rocks. So why does society need geologists? Some of the main reasons are listed below: - Geologists compile and interpret information about the earth’s surface and subsoil, which allows us to establish the planet’s past history, any foreseeable changes and its relationship with the rest of the solar system. - Society needs natural resources (metals, non-metals, water and fossil fuels) to survive. The work of geologists is therefore a key part of finding new deposits and establishing a guide for exploring and managing resources in an environmentally-friendly way. - The creation of geological maps allows us to identify potential risk areas and survey different land uses; in other words, they make an essential contribution to land planning and proposing sustainable development strategies in a region. - Learning about Geology and the proper use of geological information contributes to saving lives and reducing financial loss caused by natural catastrophes such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, flooding and landslides, while also helping to develop construction projects, public works, etc. Through the proposed activities we aim to explain some of the basic elements of the different specialities within the field of Geological Sciences. In order to do this, four sessions have been organised that will allow for a quick insight into the fields of Palaeontology, Mineralogy, Petrology and Tectonics.

Geology alive. GeoBizirik.org

Geology is the science that studies the Earth, its composition, structure and origin in addition to past and present phenomena that leave their mark on rocks. So why does society need geologists? Some of the main reasons are listed below: - Geologists compile and interpret information about the earth’s surface and subsoil, which allows us to establish the planet’s past history, any foreseeable changes and its relationship with the rest of the solar system. - Society needs natural resources (metals, non-metals, water and fossil fuels) to survive. The work of geologists is therefore a key part of finding new deposits and establishing a guide for exploring and managing resources in an environmentally-friendly way. - The creation of geological maps allows us to identify potential risk areas and survey different land uses; in other words, they make an essential contribution to land planning and proposing sustainable development strategies in a region. - Learning about Geology and the proper use of geological information contributes to saving lives and reducing financial loss caused by natural catastrophes such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, flooding and landslides, while also helping to develop construction projects, public works, etc. Through the proposed activities we aim to explain some of the basic elements of the different specialities within the field of Geological Sciences. In order to do this, four sessions have been organised that will allow for a quick insight into the fields of Palaeontology, Mineralogy, Petrology and Tectonics.

Island life in the Cretaceous - faunal composition, biogeography, evolution, and extinction of land-living vertebrates on the Late Cretaceous European archipelago

The Late Cretaceous was a time of tremendous global change, as the final stages of the Age of Dinosaurs were shaped by climate and sea level fluctuations and witness to marked paleogeographic and faunal changes, before the end-Cretaceous bolide impact. The terrestrial fossil record of Late Cretaceous Europe is becoming increasingly better understood, based largely on intensive fieldwork over the past two decades, promising new insights into latest Cretaceous faunal evolution. We review the terrestrial Late Cretaceous record from Europe and discuss its importance for understanding the paleogeography, ecology, evolution, and extinction of land-dwelling vertebrates. We review the major Late Cretaceous faunas from Austria, Hungary, France, Spain, Portugal, and Romania, as well as more fragmentary records from elsewhere in Europe. We discuss the paleogeographic background and history of assembly of these faunas, and argue that they are comprised of an endemic 'core' supplemented with various immigration waves. These faunas lived on an island archipelago, and we describe how this insular setting led to ecological peculiarities such as low diversity, a preponderance of primitive taxa, and marked changes in morphology (particularly body size dwarfing). We conclude by discussing the importance of the European record in understanding the end-Cretaceous extinction and show that there is no clear evidence that dinosaurs or other groups were undergoing long-term declines in Europe prior to the bolide impact.

What Can the Brain Teach Us about Winemaking? An fMRI Study of Alcohol Level Preferences

Over the last few decades, wine makers have been producing wines with a higher alcohol content, assuming that they are more appreciated by consumers. To test this hypothesis, we used functional magnetic imaging to compare reactions of human subjects to different types of wine, focusing on brain regions critical for flavor processing and food reward. Participants were presented with carefully matched pairs of high- and low- alcohol content red wines, without informing them of any of the wine attributes. Contrary to expectation, significantly greater activation was found for low- alcohol than for high- alcohol content wines in brain regions that are sensitive to taste intensity, including the insula as well as the cerebellum. Wines were closely matched for all physical attributes except for alcohol content, thus we interpret the preferential response to the low- alcohol content wines as arising from top-down modulation due to the low alcohol content wines inducing greater attentional exploration of aromas and flavours. The findings raise intriguing possibilities for objectively testing hypotheses regarding methods of producing a highly complex product such as wine.