The Relationship between Risk and Expected Return in Europe

Revised: 2006-07

Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

La protección de las invenciones mediante patentes en las universidades europeas, japonesas y estadounidenses

[ES] En los últimos años se ha producido en las universidades de todo el mundo una tendencia creciente a proteger sus invenciones a través de derechos de patentes. Este hecho refleja la mayor aplicabilidad de la investigación universitaria y la intención de transferir estos resultados al mundo empresarial.

The Loss of Functional Caspase-12 in Europe Is a Pre-Neolithic Event

6 p.

Ancient DNA from Hunter-Gatherer and Farmer Groups from Northern Spain Supports a Random Dispersion Model for the Neolithic Expansion into Europe

10 p.