9 resultados para Market efficiency hypothesis
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[En]The present study aimed at investigating the existence of long memory properties in ten developed stock markets across the globe. When return series exhibit long memory, the series realizations are not independent over time and past returns can help predict future returns, thus violating the market efficiency hypothesis. It poses a serious challenge to the supporters of random walk behavior of the stock returns indicating a potentially predictable component in the series dynamics. We computed Hurst-Mandelbrot’s Classical R/S statistic, Lo’s statistic and semi parametric GPH statistic using spectral regression. The findings suggest existence of long memory in volatility and random walk for logarithmic return series in general for all the selected stock market indices. Findings are in line with the stylized facts of financial time series.
Resumo:
[ES] El paradigma de la eficiencia ha sido puesto en entredicho en las últimas décadas como consecuencia de la obtención de rendimientos anormales, estadística y económicamente significativos, durante amplios periodos de tiempo tras algunas importantes decisiones empresariales. No obstante, los problemas conceptuales y estadísticos que presenta la medición y contrastación de los rendimientos anormales a largo plazo ha supuesto que la evidencia obtenida pase a calificarse como anomalía. Dada la escasa proliferación de este tipo de estudios en nuestro mercado y el desafortunado desarrollo de algunos de los existentes, en este trabajo presentamos estos problemas y algunas de las soluciones que la literatura propone. Con ello pretendemos facilitar a los investigadores las herramientas necesarias para abordar con éxito este sugerente campo.
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30 p.
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This paper deals with the economics of gasification facilities in general and IGCC power plants in particular. Regarding the prospects of these systems, passing the technological test is one thing, passing the economic test can be quite another. In this respect, traditional valuations assume constant input and/or output prices. Since this is hardly realistic, we allow for uncertainty in prices. We naturally look at the markets where many of the products involved are regularly traded. Futures markets on commodities are particularly useful for valuing uncertain future cash flows. Thus, revenues and variable costs can be assessed by means of sound financial concepts and actual market data. On the other hand, these complex systems provide a number of flexibility options (e.g., to choose among several inputs, outputs, modes of operation, etc.). Typically, flexibility contributes significantly to the overall value of real assets. Indeed, maximization of the asset value requires the optimal exercise of any flexibility option available. Yet the economic value of flexibility is elusive, the more so under (price) uncertainty. And the right choice of input fuels and/or output products is a main concern for the facility managers. As a particular application, we deal with the valuation of input flexibility. We follow the Real Options approach. In addition to economic variables, we also address technical and environmental issues such as energy efficiency, utility performance characteristics and emissions (note that carbon constraints are looming). Lastly, a brief introduction to some stochastic processes suitable for valuation purposes is provided.
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4 p.
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4 p.
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27 p.
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21 p.
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29 p.
