Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

Social Security, Education, Retirement and Growth

In this paper we analyze the effects of social security policies in an unfunded, earnings-related social security system on the incentives to education investment and voluntary retirement, on growth and on income inequality. Growth is endogenously driven by human capital investment, individuals differ in their innate (learning) ability at birth, and the pension scheme includes a minimum pension. More skilled individuals spend more on education, minimum pensions reduce low skill individuals' incentives to invest in human capital, there is no monotonic relationship between per capita growth and income inequality.

Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth

Revised: 2006-11.-- Published as an article in: Journal of Public Economics 90(12), December, 2006, pp. 2323-2349.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Effects of international trade of food and feed and human diet shifts on food security and environmental safety: integrating scales

4 p.

Impacts of Climate Change on European Critical Infrastructures: The Case of the Power Sector

23 p.

Sistemas automaticos de trading

[ES] Este proyecto se centra en los sistemas automáticos de trading, una herramienta cuya utilización en los mercados cada vez es mayor. El objetivo principal es dotar al lector de los conocimientos necesarios para desarrollar un sistema automático. Para ello, en primer lugar se explican la teoría de la eficiencia de los mercados y la de Dow, las cuales introducen al análisis fundamental y técnico, que luego, se definen y comparan entre sí. Después, se describen las figuras principales del análisis chartista y se analizan los indicadores del técnico. Antes de terminar, se ponen a prueba los conocimientos obtenidos mediante la realización del análisis técnico de Meliá Hotels. En la parte final, se define qué son los sistema automático de trading, se clasifican en grupos y se explican las ventajas frente al trading manual. Además, se desarrolla un sistema automático de trading para demostrar que con los conocimientos adquiridos durante el proyecto se podría desarrollar uno.

Guía práctica para la iniciación al trading

Tradingaren sarrerarako gida praktikoa.