Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Religious Coping, Social Support and Subjective Severity as Predictors of Posttraumatic Growth in People Affected by the Earthquake in Chile on 27/2/2010

The aim of this research is to study the impact of religious coping, social support and subjective severity on Posttraumatic Growth (PTG) in people who lost their homes after the earthquake in Chile in 2010 and who now live in transitional shelters. One hundred sixteen adult men and women were evaluated using a subjective severity scale, the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI), the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS) scale of social support and the Brief RCOPE scale of religious coping. The multiple linear regression analysis shows that social support and positive religious coping have an impact on PTG. On using a bootstrap estimate, it was found that positive religious coping fully mediates the relationship between subjective severity and PTG.

Birth Weight, Working Memory and Epigenetic Signatures in IGF2 and Related Genes: A MZ Twin Study

Neurodevelopmental disruptions caused by obstetric complications play a role in the etiology of several phenotypes associated with neuropsychiatric diseases and cognitive dysfunctions. Importantly, it has been noticed that epigenetic processes occurring early in life may mediate these associations. Here, DNA methylation signatures at IGF2 (insulin-like growth factor 2) and IGF2BP1-3 (IGF2-binding proteins 1-3) were examined in a sample consisting of 34 adult monozygotic (MZ) twins informative for obstetric complications and cognitive performance. Multivariate linear regression analysis of twin data was implemented to test for associations between methylation levels and both birth weight (BW) and adult working memory (WM) performance. Familial and unique environmental factors underlying these potential relationships were evaluated. A link was detected between DNA methylation levels of two CpG sites in the IGF2BP1 gene and both BW and adult WM performance. The BW-IGF2BP1 methylation association seemed due to non-shared environmental factors influencing BW, whereas the WM-IGF2BP1 methylation relationship seemed mediated by both genes and environment. Our data is in agreement with previous evidence indicating that DNA methylation status may be related to prenatal stress and later neurocognitive phenotypes. While former reports independently detected associations between DNA methylation and either BW or WM, current results suggest that these relationships are not confounded by each other.

Unraveling Public Good Games: The Role of Priors

This paper provides experimental evidence on how players predict end game effects in a linear public good game. Our regression analysis yields a measure of the relative importance of priors and signals on subjects\' beliefs on contributions and allow us to conclude that, firstly, the weight of the signal is relatively unimportant, while priors have a large weight and, secondly, priors are the same for all periods. Hence, subjects do not expect end game effects and there is very little updating of beliefs.

Contribution of Resource-Based View and Entrepreneurial Orientation on Small Firm Growth

[EN] This research provides a useful framework for identifying a small firms’ propensity to engage in entrepreneurial orientation. We examine the impact of the Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) as a main resource and capability on small firm’ growth. The growth seems to come out as an important demonstration of the entrepreneurial orientation of small firms (Davidsson, 1989; Green and Brown, 1997; Janney and Gregory, 2006). Thus, this research builds on prior conceptual research that suggests a positive integration between entrepreneurial orientation and resource-based view. In the first instance, the research will focus on reviewing literature in the emerging area of entrepreneurial orientation as it applies to growth oriented small firms and resource-based view of the firm. Secondly, an empirical study was developed based on a stratified sample of small firms of manufacturing industry. Data were submitted to a multivariate statistical analysis and a linear regression model was performed in order to predict the influence of the resources and capabilities on small firms’ growth. In this sense, we consider the construct growth as a dependent variable and the ones relates with resources and capabilities (entrepreneur resources, firm resources, networks and EO) as independent variables. The research results suggest a set of resources and capabilities that promote the growth of the small firms. Also, the EO seems to have a predictive value on growth. Explaining variables related with resources and capabilities and EO were identified as essential in growth oriented small firms. It was still possible to conclude that the entrepreneurial firms which grew seem to have resources and develop more capabilities and take advantage in the search for those competences. This attitude reflects on the EO of the firm. This study has important implication for both researchers and practitioners. It highlights the necessity of firms to develop superior EO of all their members and also to invest on better resources and consequently superior capabilities as a way of reaching higher levels of growth. While previous authors have attempted to analyse certain aspects of this process (linkage between entrepreneurial orientation and growth), this research developed a framework that combines these and others factors (resource-based view) pertinent to growth oriented small firms. The results support the necessity to identify explicative variables of multiple levels to explain the growth of small firms. The adoption of an entrepreneurial orientation as an indispensable variable to the growth oriented small firms seems pertinent.

Learning and management skills: the internationalization of Grupo Arcor. Analysis from a process-based approach

This paper analyzes the path of the international expansion of Grupo Arcor, an Argentine multinational company specializing in confectionery. The objective is to entify corporate strategies and business learning that led this Latin American firm to establish itself as one of the leading manufacturers in confectionery industry ,particularly in the 21st Century. The analysis is primarily qualitative in order to identify the economic dimension as a determinant in the internationalization process; a processbased approach from the Uppsala Model is used for this. However, the study is also complemented with a regression analysis to test if the firm was driven to expand internationally by the expectations on the degree of globalization of the industry and the accumulation of experience in foreign markets, and if the company was influenced by psychic distance in choosing the location of its investment; given the influence of these variables in Grupo Arcor business strategies. Our findings suggest that Grupo Arcor, was able to become global due to strategies such as vertical integration, diversification of products and geographical markets (based on psychic distance) and indeed some strategies were consequence of the globalization of the sector and the accumulation of experience in foreign markets.

Linking transformational leadership and organizational trust: has organizational commitment a mediating effect on it?

[EN] The main goal of this study is to analyze how organizational commitment has a mediating effect on the relation between transformational leadership and organizational trust. Therefore we developed an organization analysis based on a survey that was used to collect primary data from a sample of 58 employees. We obtained a 71% response rate and these data were analyzed using quantitative methodological techniques and linear regression. The research was conducted at the Serralves Foundation (Porto, Portugal) to empirically test the proposed research model and its hypotheses. The empirical results confirm that transformational leadership positively enhances organizational trust. However, transformational leadership and organizational trust are not significantly influenced by organizational commitment, thus not having a mediating effect on this relationship. Such results assume particular relevance because they become a basis for comparative studies in similar organizations. This study brings some theoretical contributions to the literature by analyzing the mediating effect of organizational commitment on the relation between transformational leadership and organizational trust in cultural organizations and has also some practical management implications, as it draws attention to the importance of a set of practices, job satisfaction oriented, which can effectively lead to organizational commitment intervention in the relationship between transformational leadership and organizational trust.