Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

In vitro activities of natural products against oral Candida isolates from denture wearers

Background: Candida-associated denture stomatitis is a frequent infectious disease. Treatment of this oral condition is difficult because failures and recurrences are common. The aim of this study was to test the in vitro antifungal activity of pure constituents of essentials oils. -- Methods: Eight terpenic derivatives (carvacrol, farnesol, geraniol, linalool, menthol, menthone, terpinen-4-ol, and aterpineol), a phenylpropanoid (eugenol), a phenethyl alcohol (tyrosol) and fluconazole were evaluated against 38 Candida isolated from denture-wearers and 10 collection Candida strains by the CLSI M27-A3 broth microdilution method. -- Results: Almost all the tested compounds showed antifungal activity with MIC ranges of 0.03-0.25% for eugenol and linalool, 0.03-0.12% for geraniol, 0.06-0.5% for menthol, a-terpineol and terpinen-4-ol, 0.03-0.5% for carvacrol, and 0.06-4% for menthone. These compounds, with the exception of farnesol, menthone and tyrosol, showed important in vitro activities against the fluconazole-resistant and susceptible-dose dependent Candida isolates. -- Conclusions: Carvacrol, eugenol, geraniol, linalool and terpinen-4-ol were very active in vitro against oral Candida isolates. Their fungistatic and fungicidal activities might convert them into promising alternatives for the topic treatment of oral candidiasis and denture stomatitis.

Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controled clinical trial of sublingual immunotherapy in natural rubber latex allergic patients

Trial registration number: CTRN12611000543987

La contribución de los espacios protegidos al desarrollo socioeconómico de las comunidades rurales. Aplicación al parque natural de Izki (Álava)

399 p.:il.

Desarrollo rural en Espacios Naturales Protegidos: el caso del Parque Natural de Gorbeia (1994-2008)

Una de las funciones encomendadas a los Espacios Naturales Protegidos es la promoción del desarrollo rural. Se ha tomado como caso de estudio el Parque Natural de Gorbeia para analizar la dinámica socioeconómica de su área de influencia y contrastarla con los objetivos planteados por su marco normativo. Con ello se ha puesto de manifiesto que, por una parte, el incremento poblacional y mayor dinamismo económico en su entorno probablemente responda a razones ajenas al potencial endógeno del Parque; y por otra, que la reestructuración agraria así como la búsqueda de objetivos diferentes al explícito de desarrollo rural podrían dificultar en un futuro próximo la gestión territorial y conservación medioambiental de este enclave.

Simulación y automatización del sistema de aceite de una turbina de gas en un almacenamiento de gas natural.

73 p. : il., col.

Reinterpretación de la nasalización en terena, cubeo y chimila desde la Fonología Natural

106 p.

Caprate: un sistema de interpretación de problemas en lenguaje natural

199 p.

Discounting the value of natural resources in costbenefit analysis: a case study for policy making

4 p.

The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast

25 p.

Weighting social preferences in participatory multi-criteria evaluations: a case study on sustainable natural resource management

28 p.

Cogeneración con gas natural en una empresa de tratamientos térmicos

[ES]Diseño de una instalación de cogeneración basada en un motor de combustible gas natural para una empresa de tratamientos térmicos y superficiales. Para satisfacer las necesidades energéticas de la planta, la potencia eléctrica la suministrará un alternador conectado al motor y, a su vez, la entalpía de los humos de escape del motor se aprovechará para la producción de vapor de agua, necesario para la actividad industrial de la empresa. Por otro lado, el calor que es necesario disipar de dicho motor se recuperará para el calentamiento de agua de red, con la finalidad de limpiar la taladrina de las piezas tratadas.

TRANSFER OF ANALYTICAL METHODS FOR THE CHARACTERISATION OF NATURAL PRODUCTS TO R&D PROCESSES OF IDOKI

IDOKI SCF Technologies S.L. is a technology-based company, set up on September 2006 in Derio (Biscay) with the main scope of developing extraction and purification processes based on the use of supercritical fluid extraction technology (SFE) in food processing, extraction of natural products and the production of personal care products. IDOKI¿s researchers have been working on many different R&D projects so far, most of them using this technology. However, the optimization of a SFE method for the different matrices cannot be performed unless we have an analytical method for the characterisation of the extracts obtained in each experiment. The analytical methods are also essential for the quality control of the raw materials that are going to be used and also for the final product. This PhD thesis was born to tackle this problem and therefore, it is based on the development of different analytical methods for the characterisation of the extracts and products. The projects that we could include in this thesis were the following: the extraction propolis, the recovery of agroindustrial residues (soy and wine) and the dealcoholisation of wine.On the one hand, for the extraction of propolis, several UV-Vis spectroscopic methods were used in order to measure the antioxidant capacity and the total polyphenol and flavonoid content of the extracts. A SFC method was also developed in order to measure more specific phenolic compounds. On the other hand, for the recovery of agroindustrial residues UV-Vis spectroscopy was used to determine the total polyphenol content and two SFC methods were developed to analyse different phenolic compounds. Extraction methods such as MAE, FUSE and rotary agitation were also evaluated for the characterisation of the raw materials.Finally, for the dealcoholisation of wine, the development of a SBSE-TD-GC-MS and DHS-TD-GC-MS methods for the analysis of aromas and a NIR spectroscopic method for the determination of ethanol content with the help of chemometrics was necessary. Most of these methods are typically used in IDOKI¿s lab as routine analyses apart from others not included in this PhD thesis.

The Interplay between Natural Selection and Susceptibility to Melanoma on Allele 374F of SLC45A2 Gene in a South European Population

We aimed to study the selective pressures interacting on SLC45A2 to investigate the interplay between selection and susceptibility to disease. Thus, we enrolled 500 volunteers from a geographically limited population (Basques from the North of Spain) and by resequencing the whole coding region and intron 5 of the 34 most and the 34 least pigmented individuals according to the reflectance distribution, we observed that the polymorphism Leu374Phe (L374F, rs16891982) was statistically associated with skin color variability within this sample. In particular, allele 374F was significantly more frequent among the individuals with lighter skin. Further genotyping an independent set of 558 individuals of a geographically wider population with known ancestry in the Spanish population also revealed that the frequency of L374F was significantly correlated with the incident UV radiation intensity. Selection tests suggest that allele 374F is being positively selected in South Europeans, thus indicating that depigmentation is an adaptive process. Interestingly, by genotyping 119 melanoma samples, we show that this variant is also associated with an increased susceptibility to melanoma in our populations. The ultimate driving force for this adaptation is unknown, but it is compatible with the vitamin D hypothesis. This shows that molecular evolution analysis can be used as a useful technology to predict phenotypic and biomedical consequences in humans.