Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper extends the technique suggested by den Haan (2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The technique provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. The technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the U.S. and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries indicating that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries.

Non-Stationary Demand in a Durable Goods Monopoly

In a context where demand for the services of a durable good changes over time, and this change may be uncertain, the paper shows that social welfare may be higher when the monopolist seller can commit to any future price level she wishes than when she cannot. Moreover, the equilibrium under a monopolist with commitment power may Pareto-dominate the equilibrium under a monopolist without commitment ability. These results affect the desired regulation of a durable goods monopolist in this context.

The Impact of Firm Level Contracting on Wage Levels and Inequality: Spain 1995-2002

This paper provides microeconomic evidence on the variation over time of the firm-specific wage premium in Spain from 1995 to 2002, and its impact on wage inequality. We make use of two waves of a detailed linked employer-employee data set. In addition, a new data set with financial information on firms is used for 2002 to control as flexibly as possible for differences in the performance of firms (aggregated at industry level). To our knowledge, there is no microeconomic evidence on the dynamics of the firm-specific wage premium for Spain or for any other country with a similar institutional setting. Our results suggest that there is a clear tendency towards centralization in the collective bargaining process in Spain over this seven-year period, that the firm-level contract wage premium undergoes a substantial decrease, particularly for women, and finally that the "centralization" observed in the collective bargaining process has resulted in a slight decrease in wage inequality.

The effect of firm-level contracts on the structure of wages: evidence from matched employer-employee data

Revised: 2006-11

Roaming in the Mobile Internet: when coverage sharing agreements call for regulation

Revised: 2006-06

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Key business factors for eco-innovation: an overview of recent firm-level empirical studies

[EN] The increasing interest in eco-innovation or environmental innovation as a strategy not only to address the serious global environmental problems but also as a source of competitive advantages for companies and for the emergence of new business areas, leads us to try to identify the different factors that act as determinants of its development and adoption at the micro level.

A methodology for the semiautomatic annotation of EPEC-RolSem, a basque corpus labeled at predicative level following the PropBank-Verb Net model

In this article we describe the methodology developed for the semiautomatic annotation of EPEC-RolSem, a Basque corpus labeled at predicate level following the PropBank-VerbNet model. The methodology presented is the product of detailed theoretical study of the semantic nature of verbs in Basque and of their similarities and differences with verbs in other languages. As part of the proposed methodology, we are creating a Basque lexicon on the PropBank-VerbNet model that we have named the Basque Verb Index (BVI). Our work thus dovetails the general trend toward building lexicons from tagged corpora that is clear in work conducted for other languages. EPEC-RolSem and BVI are two important resources for the computational semantic processing of Basque; as far as the authors are aware, they are also the first resources of their kind developed for Basque. In addition, each entry in BVI is linked to the corresponding verb-entry in well-known resources like PropBank, VerbNet, WordNet, Levin’s Classification and FrameNet. We have also implemented several automatic processes to aid in creating and annotating the BVI, including processes designed to facilitate the task of manual annotation.

Cost effectiveness of a combination of instruments for global warming: a quantitative approach for Spain

Climate change is an important environmental problem and one whose economic implications are many and varied. This paper starts with the presumption that mitigation of greenhouse gases is a necessary policy that has to be designed in a cost effective way. It is well known that market instruments are the best option for cost effectiveness. But the discussion regarding which of the various market instruments should be used, how they may interact and what combinations of policies should be implemented is still open and very lively. In this paper we propose a combination of instruments: the marketable emission permits already in place in Europe for major economic sectors and a CO(2) tax for economic sectors not included in the emissions permit scheme. The study uses an applied general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy to compute the results obtained with the new mix of instruments proposed. As the combination of the market for emission permits and the CO(2) tax admits different possibilities that depend on how the mitigation is distributed among the economic sectors, we concentrate on four possibilities: cost-effective, equalitarian, proportional to emissions, and proportional to output distributions. Other alternatives to the CO(2) tax are also analysed (tax on energy, on oil and on electricity). Our findings suggest that careful, well designed policies are needed as any deviation imposes significant additional costs that increase more than proportionally to the level of emissions reduction targeted by the EU.

Optimally robust shortcuts to population inversion in two-level quantum systems

19 p.

Design, analysis and implementation of a versatile low level radio frequency system for accelerating cavities

179 p.

Carbon leakage and the future of Old Industrial Regions after Copenhagen

35 p.

Market Instruments and CO2 Mitigation: A General Equilibrium Analysis for Spain

25 p.