An observer-based vaccination control law for an SEIR epidemic model based on feedback linearization techniques for nonlinear systems

This paper presents a vaccination strategy for fighting against the propagation of epidemic diseases. The disease propagation is described by an SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) epidemic model. The model takes into account the total population amounts as a refrain for the illness transmission since its increase makes the contacts among susceptible and infected more difficult. The vaccination strategy is based on a continuous-time nonlinear control law synthesised via an exact feedback input-output linearization approach. An observer is incorporated into the control scheme to provide online estimates for the susceptible and infected populations in the case when their values are not available from online measurement but they are necessary to implement the control law. The vaccination control is generated based on the information provided by the observer. The control objective is to asymptotically eradicate the infection from the population so that the removed-by-immunity population asymptotically tracks the whole one without precise knowledge of the partial populations. The model positivity, the eradication of the infection under feedback vaccination laws and the stability properties as well as the asymptotic convergence of the estimation errors to zero as time tends to infinity are investigated.

Robust Sliding Control of SEIR Epidemic Models

This paper is aimed at designing a robust vaccination strategy capable of eradicating an infectious disease from a population regardless of the potential uncertainty in the parameters defining the disease. For this purpose, a control theoretic approach based on a sliding-mode control law is used. Initially, the controller is designed assuming certain knowledge of an upper-bound of the uncertainty signal. Afterwards, this condition is removed while an adaptive sliding control system is designed. The closed-loop properties are proved mathematically in the nonadaptive and adaptive cases. Furthermore, the usual sign function appearing in the sliding-mode control is substituted by the saturation function in order to prevent chattering. In addition, the properties achieved by the closed-loop system under this variation are also stated and proved analytically. The closed-loop system is able to attain the control objective regardless of the parametric uncertainties of the model and the lack of a priori knowledge on the system.

Stability analysis and observer design for discrete-time SEIR epidemic models

This paper applies Micken's discretization method to obtain a discrete-time SEIR epidemic model. The positivity of the model along with the existence and stability of equilibrium points is discussed for the discrete-time case. Afterwards, the design of a state observer for this discrete-time SEIR epidemic model is tackled. The analysis of the model along with the observer design is faced in an implicit way instead of obtaining first an explicit formulation of the system which is the novelty of the presented approach. Moreover, some sufficient conditions to ensure the asymptotic stability of the observer are provided in terms of a matrix inequality that can be cast in the form of a LMI. The feasibility of the matrix inequality is proved, while some simulation examples show the operation and usefulness of the observer.

On the Stability and Equilibrium Points of Multistaged SI (n) R Epidemic Models

This paper relies on the concept of next generation matrix defined ad hoc for a new proposed extended SEIR model referred to as SI(n)R-model to study its stability. The model includes n successive stages of infectious subpopulations, each one acting at the exposed subpopulation of the next infectious stage in a cascade global disposal where each infectious population acts as the exposed subpopulation of the next infectious stage. The model also has internal delays which characterize the time intervals of the coupling of the susceptible dynamics with the infectious populations of the various cascade infectious stages. Since the susceptible subpopulation is common, and then unique, to all the infectious stages, its coupled dynamic action on each of those stages is modeled with an increasing delay as the infectious stage index increases from 1 to n. The physical interpretation of the model is that the dynamics of the disease exhibits different stages in which the infectivity and the mortality rates vary as the individual numbers go through the process of recovery, each stage with a characteristic average time.

Retroviral Infections in Sheep and Goats: Small Ruminant Lentiviruses and Host Interaction

Small ruminant lentiviruses (SRLV) are members of the Retrovirus family comprising the closely related Visna/Maedi Virus (VMV) and the Caprine Arthritis-Encephalitis Virus (CAEV), which infect sheep and goats. Both infect cells of the monocyte/macrophage lineage and cause lifelong infections. Infection by VMV and CAEV can lead to Visna/Maedi (VM) and Caprine Arthritis-Encephalitis (CAE) respectively, slow progressive inflammatory diseases primarily affecting the lungs, nervous system, joints and mammary glands. VM and CAE are distributed worldwide and develop over a period of months or years, always leading to the death of the host, with the consequent economic and welfare implications. Currently, the control of VM and CAE relies on the control of transmission and culling of infected animals. However, there is evidence that host genetics play an important role in determining Susceptibility/Resistance to SRLV infection and disease progression, but little work has been performed in small ruminants. More research is necessary to understand the host-SRLV interaction.

Celiac disease in the Mediterranean area

Background: The World Gastroenterology Organization recommends developing national guidelines for the diagnosis of Celiac Disease (CD): hence a profile of the diagnosis of CD in each country is required. We aim to describe a cross-sectional picture of the clinical features and diagnostic facilities in 16 countries of the Mediterranean basin. Since a new ESPGHAN diagnostic protocol was recently published, our secondary aim is to estimate how many cases in the same area could be identified without a small intestinal biopsy. Methods: By a stratified cross-sectional retrospective study design, we examined clinical, histological and laboratory data from 749 consecutive unselected CD children diagnosed by national referral centers. Results: The vast majority of cases were diagnosed before the age of 10 (median: 5 years), affected by diarrhea, weight loss and food refusal, as expected. Only 59 cases (7.8%) did not suffer of major complaints. Tissue transglutaminase (tTG) assay was available, but one-third of centers reported financial constraints in the regular purchase of the assay kits. 252 cases (33.6%) showed tTG values over 10 times the local normal limit. Endomysial antibodies and HLA typing were routinely available in only half of the centers. CD was mainly diagnosed from small intestinal biopsy, available in all centers. Based on these data, only 154/749 cases (20.5%) would have qualified for a diagnosis of CD without a small intestinal biopsy, according to the new ESPGHAN protocol. Conclusions: This cross-sectional study of CD in the Mediterranean referral centers offers a puzzling picture of the capacities to deal with the emerging epidemic of CD in the area, giving a substantive support to the World Gastroenterology Organization guidelines.

Why are we fat? Discussions on the socioeconomic dimensions and responses to obesity

This paper draws together contributions to a scientific table discussion on obesity at the European Science Open Forum 2008 which took place in Barcelona, Spain. Socioeconomic dimensions of global obesity, including those factors promoting it, those surrounding the social perceptions of obesity and those related to integral public health solutions, are discussed. It argues that although scientific accounts of obesity point to large-scale changes in dietary and physical environments, media representations of obesity, which context public policy, pre-eminently follow individualistic models of explanation. While the debate at the forum brought together a diversity of views, all the contributors agreed that this was a global issue requiring an equally global response. Furthermore, an integrated ecological model of obesity proposes that to be effective, policy will need to address not only human health but also planetary health, and that therefore, public health and environmental policies coincide.

Celiac disease in the Mediterranean area

Background: The World Gastroenterology Organization recommends developing national guidelines for the diagnosis of Celiac Disease (CD): hence a profile of the diagnosis of CD in each country is required. We aim to describe a cross-sectional picture of the clinical features and diagnostic facilities in 16 countries of the Mediterranean basin. Since a new ESPGHAN diagnostic protocol was recently published, our secondary aim is to estimate how many cases in the same area could be identified without a small intestinal biopsy. Methods: By a stratified cross-sectional retrospective study design, we examined clinical, histological and laboratory data from 749 consecutive unselected CD children diagnosed by national referral centers. Results: The vast majority of cases were diagnosed before the age of 10 (median: 5 years), affected by diarrhea, weight loss and food refusal, as expected. Only 59 cases (7.8%) did not suffer of major complaints. Tissue transglutaminase (tTG) assay was available, but one-third of centers reported financial constraints in the regular purchase of the assay kits. 252 cases (33.6%) showed tTG values over 10 times the local normal limit. Endomysial antibodies and HLA typing were routinely available in only half of the centers. CD was mainly diagnosed from small intestinal biopsy, available in all centers. Based on these data, only 154/749 cases (20.5%) would have qualified for a diagnosis of CD without a small intestinal biopsy, according to the new ESPGHAN protocol. Conclusions: This cross-sectional study of CD in the Mediterranean referral centers offers a puzzling picture of the capacities to deal with the emerging epidemic of CD in the area, giving a substantive support to the World Gastroenterology Organization guidelines.

Streptococcus pyogenes Pneumonia in Adults: Clinical Presentation and Molecular Characterization of Isolates 2006-2015

Introduction In the preantibiotic era Streptococcus pyogenes was a common cause of severe pneumonia but currently, except for postinfluenza complications, it is not considered a common cause of community-acquired pneumonia in adults. Aim and Material and Methods This study aimed to identify current clinical episodes of S. pyogenes pneumonia, its relationship with influenza virus circulation and the genotypes of the involved isolates during a decade in a Southern European region (Gipuzkoa, northern Spain). Molecular analysis of isolates included emm, multilocus-sequence typing, and superantigen profile determination. Results Forty episodes were detected (annual incidence 1.1 x 100,000 inhabitants, range 0.29-2.29). Thirty-seven episodes were community-acquired, 21 involved an invasive infection and 10 developed STSS. The associated mortality rate was 20%, with half of the patients dying within 24 hours after admission. Influenza coinfection was confirmed in four patients and suspected in another. The 52.5% of episodes occurred outside the influenza seasonal epidemic. The 67.5% of affected persons were elderly individuals and adults with severe comorbidities, although 13 patients had no comorbidities, 2 of them had a fatal outcome. Eleven clones were identified, the most prevalent being emm1/ST28 (43.6%) causing the most severe cases. Conclusions S. pyogenes pneumonia had a continuous presence frequently unrelated to influenza infection, being rapidly fatal even in previously healthy individuals.